Dr. David Robinson is an economist at Laurentian University in Sudbury, Canada. His column was originally published in March 2011 issue of Sudbury Mining Solutions Journal a magazine that showcases the mining expertise of North Bay, Timmins and Sudbury. drobinson@laurentian.ca
Mr. Keynes had it right: the financial community is very, very emotional. We are barely climbing out of what many were calling the great recession, and suddenly a flock of bankers and business reporters are babbling about a new economic supercycle.
Well, I have news for them. There is no new supercycle. Don’t run off and sell all your mining stocks, though. This isn’t bad news – it’s just a better way of understanding the good news.
To start with, the supercycle isn’t new. Even Gerard Lyons, the guy who wrote The Supercycle Report, shows the cycle starting in 2000. It is the same old supercycle that we were talking about five years ago in this space.
Second, it isn’t a cycle. An interesting thing about the figures from Gerard Lyons is that they show a gradually rising growth rate, not a series of cycles. Each of the so-called high cycles got a bit higher.