Saudi Aramco tops Crown Prince’s $2-trillion valuation goal, though skepticism persists – by MARWA RASHAD AND DAVIDE BARBUSCIA (Globe and Mail – December 12, 2019)

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/

Saudi Aramco hit the US$2-trillion target sought by de facto Saudi leader Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on Thursday as its shares racked up a second day of gains, despite some skepticism about the state-owned oil firm’s value.

Aramco’s initial public offering (IPO) is the centerpiece of the Saudi crown prince’s vision for diversifying the kingdom away from its oil dependence by using the US$25.6-billion raised to develop other industries.

But that is well below his 2016 plan to raise as much as US$100-billion via a blockbuster international and domestic IPO. Riyadh scaled back its ambitions after overseas investors balked at the proposed valuation and only 1.5 per cent of Saudi Arabian Oil Co (Aramco) shares were listed on the Riyadh stock exchange on Wednesday, a tiny free float for such a huge company.

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Canada’s new climate minister makes global debut, and faces momentous decision on oil sands – by Eric Reguly (Globe and Mail – December 12, 2019)

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/

Jonathan Wilkinson, Canada’s new Environment and Climate Change Minister, points out that he has been on the job only three weeks. Translation: Cut me some slack, please, I don’t have all the answers.

But he’ll have to learn quickly. At the end of February, he has to decide whether to approve Teck Resources Ltd.’s enormous Frontier oil sands project or refer it to the wider Liberal cabinet. Either way, it will be a damned-if-you-do, damned-if-you-don’t moment that will be instrumental in defining the federal government’s carbon-reduction trajectory and its relationship with Alberta.

If the project is approved, as Alberta Premier Jason Kenney so desperately wants, Canada’s plan to transition to a low-carbon economy, then to a “net zero” emissions economy by 2050, might go from the difficult to the virtually impossible without miracle technology or shipping fortunes overseas to buy carbon credits. Turning down the project would ignite a war with Alberta.

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Chevron’s possible exit from Kitimat LNG project dents Canada’s aspirations of building LNG hub – by Geoffrey Morgan and Reuters (Financial Post – December 12, 2019)

https://business.financialpost.com/

Chevron Corp. is considering putting its entire stake in the proposed liquid natural gas project in British Columbia on the block, in a blow to Canada’s aspirations to build a robust LNG industry.

“Although Kitimat LNG is a globally competitive LNG project, the strength of Chevron Corporation’s global portfolio of investment opportunities is such that the Kitimat LNG Project will not be funded by Chevron and may be of higher value to another company,” the company said on Tuesday.

The San Ramon, California-based company said its Canadian unit will look for buyers for its 50 per cent interest in the Kitimat LNG Project, but set no timeline to conclude the process. Chevron’s other Canadian projects are not part of the sale.

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UNDRIP says First Nations can say no to development. But we also need to be able to say yes – by Dale Swampy (Financial Post – December 10, 2019)

https://business.financialpost.com/

Dale Swampy is president of the National Coalition of Chiefs and a member of the Samson Cree Nation.

“We have seen in the past 15 years, after the duty to consult was affirmed
by the Supreme Court of Canada, how environmentalist and radical NGOs
have used First Nations’ treaty and constitutional rights as a strategy
to block resource development.

They come into our communities with misinformation, pressure tactics,
and promises of legal support. But too often their interest is, not in assisting First Nations to get better deals, but in appropriating our voices and credibility
for their own self-interested end of blocking all development.”

Last month a new milestone in Canada’s journey to reconciliation was achieved with the introduction of Bill 41 in the B.C. legislature. The bill requires B.C.’s government to bring its laws into line with the provisions of the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples (UNDRIP). This legislation will provide another tool for First Nations to ensure they are adequately consulted and engaged in resource development projects and share in their benefits.

I believe the intent of this legislation is noble and I support, in particular, the sentiment expressed in a joint statement by B.C.’s Minister of Indigenous Relations and Reconciliation, B.C. First Nations leaders and MLAs:

“It is time we recognize and safeguard Indigenous peoples’ human rights, so that we may finally move away from conflict, drawn-out court cases and uncertainty, and move forward with collaboration and respect … we will create more certainty and opportunity for Indigenous peoples, B.C. businesses, communities and families everywhere.”

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The inevitable Trudeau recession will ravage the West and the middle class – by Diane Francis (Financial Post – December 9, 2019)

https://business.financialpost.com/

Trudeau has degraded the value of two major assets — our relationship with the U.S. and our natural resources — to the detriment of all Canadians

The “hot mic” video of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau mocking President Donald Trump behind his back at the NATO conference is a major diplomatic blunder.

I’m no fan of Trump’s either, and Trudeau certainly found a ready audience for his ridicule, but this is school boy stuff, unbecoming the leaders of any of these countries. And there is no excuse. Trudeau should know by now that everything is on the record whether there’s a “hot mic” or not.

More importantly, he should know, as Canada’s Prime Minister, that his principal foreign affairs job is to look after Canada’s relationship with the United States. In fact, like it or lump it, good relations with the U.S. is one of Canada’s two most important assets. The other is the country’s spectacular resource endowment.

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Meet the Laurentian Elite, the mediocre masters of Canada – by John Weissenberger (National Post – December 6, 2019)

https://nationalpost.com/

Our self-declared social and political elite is like the air we breathe or the proverbial water around fish; it seems so natural as to be unnoticeable

National institutions and dominant elites can fail when they don’t accommodate change, or become severely detached from the lives of average citizens. In Canada, this has been the rule rather than the exception for the past 50 years, and the Laurentian Elite is largely to blame.

But what is, and who are, the Laurentian Elite? How can they be so important if they don’t even have a Wikipedia page? Our self-declared, dominant Canadian social and political elite is like the air we breathe or the proverbial water around fish; it seems so natural as to be unnoticeable.

Journalist and author John Ibbitson coined the term in a seminal 2011 article, later expanded into a book, The Big Shift. He defined the “Laurentians” as “the political, academic, cultural, media and business elites” of central Canada.

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While Canada hesitates, Russia builds 3,000 km gas pipeline to China in just five years – by Victor Ferreira (Financial Post – December 3, 2019)

https://business.financialpost.com/

As multiple Canadian pipeline projects linger in limbo, Russia and China have just turned on the taps on a natural gas behemoth long enough to connect Timmins, Ont., to Burnaby, B.C.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping brought the Power of Siberia pipeline, which will stretch 3,000 km from Siberia into northeast China, online Monday. The US$55 billion pipeline is expected to carry five billion cubic metres of natural gas into China in 2020, with production eventually ramping up and hitting 38 billion cubic metres by 2025.

The partnership between the two nations came in response to the sanctions levied on Russia following its annexation of Crimea. Brutalized by the financial sanctions in particular, Russia desperately needed to bring new capital into the country and China appeared to be an eager partner to supply it. The pipeline is expected to yield Russia US$400 billion over 30 years.

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Guyana hopes oil will bring wealth – not corruption and crisis – by Jennapher Lunde Seefeldt (The Conversation – February 21, 2019)

https://theconversation.com/

When ExxonMobil begins oil production in Guyana next year, mining crude from its seven new deepwater wells, life may change dramatically in this small South American country.

The mega deal is expected to increase Guyana’s gross domestic product from US$3.4 billion in 2016 to $13 billion by 2025. That’s because Guyana, one of the poorest in South America, will receive about half of all ExxonMobil’s oil revenue after the company’s exploration costs are repaid.

Nearly 40 percent of Guyana’s 800,000 people live in poverty. The oil money will provide a remarkable economic boost that could strengthen education, health care and infrastructure.

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Quebec is as much an oil state as Alberta — they just let others produce it – by Monte Solberg (Financial Post – November 19, 2019)

https://business.financialpost.com/

Monte Solberg, the principal at New West Public Affairs, is a former Alberta MP and cabinet minister

Take my hand, will you, and I will lead you through the wardrobe to a magical place, where the only energy is clean energy, where Tesla-driving Quebecers signal as they change lanes, and the only emissions are of a private nature.

Now, as we walk through a pristine old-growth forest we come upon a great eminence, a splendid figure who picks absent-mindedly at a glorious cape made entirely of recycled plastic straws. What is this place and who is this extraordinary man?

It is Imaginary Quebec of course, home to Yves-François Blanchet, leader of the Bloc Québécois. Here, he speaks for all of Quebec. Here he has declared that he will not help Alberta “create an oil state,” suggesting that the Quebec economy isn’t itself greased and fired by decayed dinosaurs.

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Alberta is facing a full-blown economic crisis and it needs support, not condescension – by Martin Pelletier (Financial Post – November 19, 2019)

https://business.financialpost.com/

Alberta’s billions in transfer payments have helped other provinces hurt by economic troubles, so where’s the compassion for the province now?

Western Canada is currently facing uncertain times not witnessed since the Petro-Canada Centre, better known as Red Square, was built to house the then Crown Corporation in downtown Calgary in 1983. And with no resolution in sight for the five-year-long rout in oil and natural gas prices, things are going to get a lot worse before they get better.

While Encana’s decision to move its headquarters to Denver made headlines, the reality is that business are leaving the province in droves. One local realtor, Robert Graham at Arrowstar, told Global News recently that Arrowstar alone has helped 100 Western Canadian companies relocate to the Houston area, 40 of those in the past year and a half.

Others are shutting up shop completely, or closing locations in the province: Chili’s shut all but three of its Alberta locations in 2017; Red Robin has plans to pull out of Alberta by year-end; and Starbucks has announced numerous closures in both Edmonton and Calgary. That on top of the multitude of mom-and-pop businesses that are simply going bust.

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OPINION: If Alberta retreats behind a firewall, the province risks getting burned – by Kenneth Whyte (Globe and Mail – November 16, 2019)

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/

The Conservative Party of Canada will likely have an opportunity to regain power in a year or two. How does that happen while Alberta, the keystone of Canadian conservatism, is making a bunker of itself?

Red Deer lies halfway between Edmonton and Calgary, roughly 150 kilometres from each, and despite snow and ice warnings in both directions, a couple of hundred people from all over Alberta turned up early at a hotel conference room last Saturday to address the big question: How should the province respond to a disappointing outcome in last month’s federal election?

This was a different gathering than the feral, amateurish Wexit rally at the Boot Scootin’ Boogie Dancehall in Edmonton on Nov. 2, the one with the Make Alberta Great Again hats and chants of “The West Wants Out!” The Red Deer crowd was composed of seasoned political operatives, the sort of people who run local campaigns and sit on boards of riding associations.

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$40 billion megaproject begins to take shape in Kitimat – by Nelson Bennott (Business in Vancouver – November 12, 2019)

https://biv.com/

One year ago, the partners behind LNG Canada formally sanctioned the $40 billion project. Today, roughly 1,000 workers are on site in Kitimat – about half of them from the Kitimat-Terrace area – and that’s just to set the stage for the main construction phase, which isn’t expected to start for another couple of years.

Last week, Business in Vancouver toured the project in Kitimat, which is booming, according to Kitimat Mayor Phil Germuth. “It’s definitely buzzing,” he said. “The hotels are full, there’s another brand new hotel that’s being built. There’s a brand new 35-unit townhouse development being done.”

Located at the mouth of Douglas Channel, next to the recently upgraded Rio Tinto (NYSE:RIO) aluminum smelter – the scale of which is impressive in its own right – the LNG Canada site at 400 hectares is about the size of 550 soccer fields.

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Flat drilling activity in Canada will result in more layoffs amid low-growth outlook for oil – by Geoffrey Morgan (Financial Post – November 13, 2019)

https://business.financialpost.com/

Next year could see almost 14,000 oilfield jobs lost: CAODC forecast

CALGARY – Drilling activity in Western Canada is poised to remain flat over the next year as drillers believe oil and gas sentiment is nearing an “all-time low” in the face of fresh forecasts that predict weak Canadian industry growth over the longer term.

The Canadian Association of Oilwell Drilling Contractors’ annual activity forecast released Wednesday predicted there will be 13,731 direct and indirect jobs losses in the oilfield during 2020.

The association has said its member companies have already moved 29 drilling rigs to the United States “in order to find work and generate cash flow” and those rigs include the larger, higher-technology rigs used to drill deep, horizontal wells in new formations in Western Canada.

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COLUMN-India’s economic woes hit coal imports, but crude oil soldiers on for now – by Clyde Russell (Reuters U.K. – November 12, 2019)

https://www.reuters.com/

LAUNCESTON, Australia, Nov 12 (Reuters) – A sharp plunge in India’s electricity demand in October has been matched by falling coal imports, but weakness in vehicle sales and fuel demand hasn’t yet showed up in crude oil imports.

Power demand in Asia’s third-largest economy slumped 13.2% in October from a year earlier, the steepest monthly decline in more than 12 years, according to government data.

Coal imports fell to 14.7 million tonnes in October, the lowest since January and the third straight month of declines, according to vessel-tracking and port data compiled by Refinitiv.

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Canadian carbon guilt belongs in a parallel universe – by Terence Corcoran (Financial Post – November 12, 2019)

https://business.financialpost.com/

Canada boasts that it has reduced coal usage. … India’s minister
of coals and mines said recently that Coal India, the government
-owned national producer, aimed to boost output to one billion
tonnes a year from about 700 million tonnes currently.

As the political convulsions within Canada over Alberta’s fossil fuel future unfold, including divisive talk of separation and Wexit, one has to wonder what alternative planet Canadians inhabit.

After an election filled with emergency calls to end fossil fuel use within a decade or two, the country that was built on natural resources is now being torn apart over whether to build a pipeline to carry a few driblets of oil through the Trans Mountain pipeline to the West Coast.

Driblets is the right word in the context of Planet Earth. Global oil production may already exceed 100 million barrels a day. The additional volume of oil to be delivered through the proposed TMX expansion line — about 600,000 barrels a day — is equivalent to 0.6 per cent of global production. By way of comparison, imagine standing in front of a supermarket aisle of 2,000 cans of beer; proportionately, TMX would add two six-packs.

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