LONDON – So is the aluminum premium bubble well and truly over? It certainly feels that way.
Japanese buyers have just secured a premium of $90 per metric tons over London Metal Exchange (LME) cash metal for their fourth-quarter shipments.
As recently as the first quarter of this year, Japanese premiums were at a record high of $425 per metric tons (468 tons).
Moreover, these Q4 2015 premiums are the lowest since the third quarter of 2009, marking a return to historical norms.
The scale of the collapse in Japanese premiums is partly down to specific local drivers but even that statement reflects a return to normality, where physical premiums don’t move in global lock-step but rather mirror regional supply-demand dynamics.
U.S. and European premiums are higher at around $155 and $120 per metric tons respectively but have fallen a long, long way since the start of this year.