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The price of gold might’ve stolen the spotlight in recent weeks, but aluminum’s own skid to a four month low is worthy of closer attention, not least because there are signs are that the metal’s 30-month downward trend is likely to continue unless China changes plans.
According to the World Bureau of Metal Statistics, the global aluminum market was in oversupply by some 1.23 million tonnes in the first nine months of 2013, following a surplus of 539,000 tonnes for the whole of 2012. With so much metal above ground, prices this week slumped to their lowest value since July 2009, at $1,744 a tonne.
At these levels, it is estimated that close to half of the world’s production is loss-making.
Even amid that astonishing fact, even more aluminum may come on to the market both before and after the April implementation of a London Metal Exchange rule change that will require warehouses with delivery queues longer than 50 days to load out more metal than they load in.