The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) has released preliminary data for December 2013 world copper supply and demand in its March 2014 Copper Bulletin. In 2013 world apparent use is estimated to have increased by 4% (805,000 t) to 21.2 Mt. World mine production is estimated to have increased by 8% (1.3 Mt) to 18 Mt. World refined production is estimated to have increased by around 4.5% (879,000 t) to 21 Mt. According to preliminary ICSG data, the refined copper market balance for December 2013 showed an apparent production surplus of 34,000 t as, despite strong Chinese apparent demand, refined usage was weak in major consuming regions during the yearend holiday period.
When making seasonal adjustments for world refined production and usage, December showed a production deficit of 57,000 t. The refined copper balance for the full-year 2013, including revisions to data previously presented (including a major revision to India’s refined usage series), indicates a production deficit of 193,000 t (a seasonally adjusted deficit of 337,000 t). This compares with a production deficit of 266,000 t (a seasonally adjusted deficit of 419,000 t) in the same period of 2012.
In 2013 world apparent usage is estimated to have increased by 4% (805,000 t) to 21.2 Mt compared with that in 2012. Chinese apparent demand increased by 7% from that in 2012: a decline in net imports of refined copper of 216,000 t (that occurred mainly in the first half of the year) was more than offset by an increase in refined production of around 675,000 t. Actual demand in China in 2013 may have exceeded apparent demand as the lower net imports level was accompanied by a decline in unreported inventories held in bonded warehouses in China.
Withdrawn stocks may have been all or partially directed to domestic industrial use. Excluding China, year-on-year world usage increased by 1.4% (160,000 t), with growth in the USA (3.6%), Brazil (3%) and Russia (3%) offsetting declines in South Korea (5%) and the European Union (1%). Japanese and Indian usage remained unchanged. On a regional basis, usage is estimated to have increased by around 5.5% in Asia, 1.5% in Asia Ex-China, 3% in Africa, 3% in the Americas, and 0.5% in Europe and to have declined by around 14% in Oceania.
World mine production is estimated to have increased by 8% (1.3 Mt) to 18 Mt in 2013 compared with that in 2012, mainly owing to a recovery in production levels from constrained output in 2012 (three major world copper mines recovered from production constraints during 2012, accounting for 28% of the world increase in 2013) and, to a lesser extent, to the ramp-up of new mine capacity. Concentrate production increased by 9% (1.2 Mt) and SX-EW by 3.5% (130,000 t). Mine production increased by 6% in Chile (342,000 t), the world’s leading producer, and accounted for 32% of world mine production in 2013.
Production also increased in Peru (6%), the USA (5%), Indonesia (28%), Mongolia (61%), the DRC (50%) and Zambia (7%). These seven countries combined contributed an additional 1 Mt of copper mine supply. On a regional basis, production rose by around 26% in Africa, 6% in the Americas, 10% in Asia, 2.5% in Europe, and 5% in Oceania. The average world mine capacity utilization rate for 2013 increased to around 85% from around 82% in 2012.
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