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The Canadian oil sands sector is set to revive its rivalry with resurgent Mexican heavy crude production in the next few years as the southern country pushes through reforms and starts attracting billions of dollars in foreign investment in its energy sector.
“There is a potential for headwinds for Canadian heavy oil in the Gulf Coast, if Mexico gets its groove back, and is able to stabilize and then increase exports of Mayan crude,” said Judith Dwarkin, director, energy research at ITG Investments.
Mexico’s state-owned Petróleos Mexicanos (PEMEX) already exports its benchmark heavy oil crude to Gulf Coast refineries but its influence has waned as domestic production declined over the past few years. During this time, Canadian heavy oil has increased its market share on the Gulf Coast.
President Enrique Pena Nieto, who swept to power last December partly on a pledge to dismantle PEMEX’s 75-year monopoly, has cut through decades of resistance towards foreign participation in the country’s energy sector.