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Nickel/Metals/ War – Geopolitical Flashpoints

America’s ‘Invisible Aircraft’- As Russia Controls Titanium Supply Chain, How US Secretly Sourced This Mineral To Build The Blackbird – by Tanmay Kadam (EurAsian Times – March 28, 2022)

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The Russia-Ukraine war has the aerospace companies worried as it may disrupt the supply of titanium, a key mineral used in the manufacture of various components of modern aircraft.

Kevin Michaels, managing director of AeroDynamic Advisory, a supply-chain consulting firm, has sounded an alarm by saying that Russian President Putin can shut down the commercial aerospace business if he chooses to do so.

VSMPO-AVISMA Corporation based in Verkhnyaya Salda, Russia, is the world’s largest titanium producer. It supplies 30-35% of the titanium used by the aviation sector globally. Aerospace giants such as Boeing and Airbus are heavily dependent on Russian titanium.

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Devil Copper: War and the Canadian Nickel Industry, 1883–1970 – by Scott Miller (National Defence Canada – Winter 2019)

http://www.journal.forces.gc.ca/

Located in the heart of northeastern Ontario, the city of Sudbury is often referred to as the ‘Nickel Capital’ for its historic relationship with this particular metal. Indeed, by the eve of the First World War, it had become the world’s leading producer of nickel, and by 1950, its share of the global supply peaked at 95 percent.1

Also known as ‘devil copper,’ worldwide demand for nickel remained strong throughout much of the 20th Century, largely as a result of its far-reaching military applications. While the citizens of Sudbury are generally well aware of this mining legacy, others may not be as familiar with the significance of nickel in Canadian political and military history. This is hardly surprising. As renowned historian J.L. Granatstein once asserted, there is a lack of “…serious scholarship on Canada’s industrial [war effort],” including its mineral and mining sectors.2

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OPINION: Africa is becoming the new frontline in the conflict between Russia and the West – by John Rapley (Globe and Mail – March 26, 2022)

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/

John Rapley is a professor at the Johannesburg Institute for Advanced Study. His most recent book is Twilight of the Money Gods.

During the Cold War, Africa stood on the frontline of the East-West struggle. Both the U.S. and Soviet blocs propped up client-regimes with generous patronage and military assistance, and each of them maintained proxy armies that fought rebellions against states in the other camp. In this way, the two superpowers became adept at harassing one another without ever coming to blows themselves.

Africa generally came off the worse for it. Some leaders of what were then newly independent countries became very adept at exploiting the superpower rivalry, playing one side off against the other and thereby extracting maximum benefit.

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Column: Nickel, the devil’s metal with a history of bad behaviour – by Andy Home (Reuters – March 10, 2022)

https://www.reuters.com/

The global nickel market is in a pricing black-out. The London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month nickel price sits in suspended animation at $48,048 per tonne, Monday’s closing price and the last trade with even a semblance of legitimacy.

Tuesday’s mayhem and the resulting decision by the LME to suspend all trading has frozen what is the core reference price for the global supply chain stretching from miners to stainless steel mills and electric vehicle battery makers.

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A stunning day for nickel prices – by Staff (Sudbury Star – March 8, 2022)

https://www.thesudburystar.com/

The metal used in stainless steel and lithium-ion batteries rose as
much as 90 per cent to $55,000 a metric ton, the highest in the
35-year history of the contract. That topped a previous record
of $51,800 reached in 2007.

It was a wild day for nickel prices on Monday – reaching $US20 a pound briefly before retreating to $17.32 – still an increase of a little more than $4 a pound compared to Friday.

Russia’s invasion is the main reason behind the dramatic increase in price. Russia supplies around 10 per cent of the world’s nickel, and investors fear that Western sanctions against Russia could disrupt air and sea shipments of commodities produced and exported by Russia, Reuters reported Monday.

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Russia seizes Europe’s biggest nuclear plant in ‘reckless’ assault (Kitco/Reuters – March 4, 2022)

https://www.kitco.com/

LVIV, Ukraine/KYIV, March 4 (Reuters) – Russian invasion forces seized Europe’s biggest nuclear power plant on Friday in what Washington called a reckless assault that risked catastrophe, although a blaze in a training building was extinguished and officials said the facility was now safe.

Combat raged elsewhere in Ukraine as Russian forces surrounded and bombarded several cities in the second week of the assault launched by Russian President Vladimir Putin.

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Nickel price spike during Russia-Ukraine conflict could drive up EV costs – by Camille Erickson (S & P Global – March 3, 2022)

https://www.spglobal.com/

Nickel prices jumped after Russia, a top global nickel producer, invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, threatening to drive up electric vehicle battery costs that were already under pressure from rising raw material prices.

The London Metal Exchange three-month nickel price increased on the news of Russia’s incursion, reaching an 11-year high of $25,575 per tonne in trading on Feb. 24, while LME stocks tumbled in the run-up period, dipping throughout February to 82,314 tonnes as of Feb. 22, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights data.

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Russia-Ukraine tension may give rise to a new commodity world order – by Henry Lazenby (Northern Miner – March 3, 2022)

https://www.northernminer.com/

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has the potential to establish a new commodity world order that tilts reliable supply toward North America, Bloomberg Intelligence says in a research note.

Analyst Mike McGlone argues that should oil and gas prices continue to spike amid the increased geopolitical tension, it could very well be the catalyst for a global recession.

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OPINION GUEST ESSAY: The West’s Delusion of Energy Independence – by Dennis C. Blair and Joseph F. Dunford Jr. (New York Times – February 22, 2022)

https://www.nytimes.com/

Russia’s belligerence against Ukraine is underscoring once again the inextricable link between national security and energy security. Today, Russia is flexing its energy dominance over a dependent Europe. But tomorrow, the danger may come from China and its control over the raw materials that are key to a clean energy future. The United States and its allies must ensure that doesn’t happen.

In recent years America has been lulled into a false sense of energy independence. The shale revolution of the past decade has generated incredible supplies of vital natural gas and oil. European countries, blessed with diverse economies, have also felt relatively secure in recent years. But that is changing.

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Nickel Closest Thing to a True ‘War Metal’ – by Stan Sudol (Sudbury Northern Life – February 23, 2007)

Please note that this column is from 2007 – Stan Sudol

The metallic “Achilles heel” for any military and navel production has always been nickel

Sudbury was definitely going to be “nuked” by the Russians. At least that was our conclusion back in 1976 when I worked at CVRD Inco’s Clarabell Mill for a year.

During one graveyard shift, a group of us were talking about Cold War politics and atomic bombs. We all agreed that if there ever was a nuclear war between the Americans and Russians then there must have been one Soviet “nuke” with our community’s name stenciled on it. We all laughed a little nervously, but there was also some pride in knowing Sudbury was important enough to get blown-up in the first round of missiles.

Access to strategic materials has always affected the destinies of nations. The Romans conquered Britain in AD 43 to control valuable tin deposits in Cornwall. Combining tin with copper produces bronze, a more valuable and militarily important alloy. Ancient Chinese metallurgical expertise with iron and steel allowed the Middle Kingdom to become a dominate military and economic force during the prosperous Han dynasty.

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Brace for volatility as virus grips platinum, palladium markets: JM – by Peter Hobson (Reuters U.S. – May 18, 2020)

https://www.reuters.com/

LONDON (Reuters) – Platinum and palladium markets will be tight this year as the coronavirus pandemic hammers supply and demand, materials maker Johnson Matthey said on Monday, declining to give full-year forecasts and saying prices will be erratic.

Production of the metals, used to reduce vehicle emissions, and their consumption by auto makers could fall by around one-fifth in 2020 but the course of the virus is too uncertain to give precise numbers, the company said in a report.

Temporary dislocations as the new coronavirus impacts different places at different times could have the biggest influence on prices, Rupen Raithatha, Johnson Matthey’s director of market research, said.

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Column: Lockdowns and low prices generate nickel supply shock – by Andy Home (Reuters U.K. – April 27, 2020)

https://uk.reuters.com/

LONDON (Reuters) – If the boredom has well and truly set in after weeks of travel restrictions and social distancing, you could always join metal traders in a game of lockdown lottery.

Metals have priced in the demand shock, or at least the first-stage demand shock, rippling around the world with the spread of COVID-19. The index of the major base metals traded on the London Metal Exchange (LME) bottomed out on March 23 and has since rebounded by 7%.

Now the game is to assess the size of the supply shock to follow as national lockdowns force mines to curtail operations while low prices push some higher-cost operators out of the market altogether.

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As you celebrate the Berlin Wall’s ‘fall’ in 1989, remember 1979, too – by Raymond de Souza (National Post – November 22, 2019)

https://nationalpost.com/

The coverage of the 30th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall, which occurred earlier this month, was disappointing. Much of it made it seem as if the wall just fell down, like a weathered old barn. But it did not fall down; it was torn down. Little coverage seemed interested in why and how.

The error was made in high places. Before the anniversary, Germany’s foreign minister, Heiko Maas, put out an official statement in which he paid tribute to the Gdansk shipyard workers and Prague’s Charter 77. But mostly he offered Euro-speak about multilateral efforts to combat climate change.

Maas, like so many others, did not acknowledge that the key turning point in the Cold War, the events that made 1989 happen in the way that it did — non-violently through a moral revolution — began 10 years earlier in 1979. In 1979, St. John Paul II visited Poland. In 1979, Margaret Thatcher was elected prime minister of the United Kingdom.

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America is losing the battle of the Arctic – by Hal Brands (American Enterprise Institute – July 30, 2019)

http://www.aei.org/

The Pentagon’s new Arctic Strategy is a step forward, but not enough to counter Russia and – yes — China.

The two most important global issues of the coming decades are the return of rivalry between great powers and the intensification of climate change. Squarely at the intersection of these trends sits the Arctic, a region whose growing importance is reshaping the world’s geo-economics and geopolitics alike.

Publicly, the Trump administration is giving greater attention to the Arctic – an indication that the U.S. is mobilizing for the new era. Unfortunately, while Washington is speaking the language of great-power rivalry, its actions have yet to catch up with its words.

Since January, the Navy and Coast Guard have released separate Arctic strategies. Secretary of the Navy Richard Spencer has called for new freedom of navigation operations and an increased naval presence in the region.

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OPINION: A high-stakes game of chicken is playing out in the Gulf of Oman – by Dennis Horak (Globe and Mail – June 17, 2019)

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/

Dennis Horak was Canada’s ambassador to Saudi Arabia until he was expelled in August, 2018. He was also head of mission in Iran from 2009-12.

Thursday’s attack on two oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman was a dangerous escalation in the game of high-stakes chicken that has been playing out in that volatile region.

U.S. Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, has pointed the finger squarely at Iran, citing intelligence, the weapons used and Iran’s known capabilities. The U.S. has also taken the unusual step of releasing a video of an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps vessel alongside one of the ships, apparently removing an unexploded limpet mine, to back up its allegations.

The U.S. position in directing blame to Iran is compelling. Iran has the motivation, the capability and the form. Tehran is feeling the heat of the U.S. policy of maximum pressure and they are clearly growing ever more anxious for relief by whichever means they can get it.

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