The Russian invasion of Ukraine has the potential to establish a new commodity world order that tilts reliable supply toward North America, Bloomberg Intelligence says in a research note.
Analyst Mike McGlone argues that should oil and gas prices continue to spike amid the increased geopolitical tension, it could very well be the catalyst for a global recession.
“The conflict is unique, but in 2008, the severe risk-asset reversion was aggravated by a sharp rally in West Texas Intermediate crude oil to its peak around US$145 a barrel,” said McGlone.
The analyst believes the crude oil market will likely mirror past reversion patterns from elevated prices. Brent crude has dropped about 80% on three occasions since the 2008 peak. “It’s possible that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine triggers a global recession and accelerates electrification and decarbonization trends,” said McGlone.
For the rest of this article: https://www.northernminer.com/news/russia-ukraine-tension-may-give-rise-to-a-new-commodity-world-order/