COLUMN-China’s robust commodity imports boosted by stockpiling, financing – by Clyde Russell (Reuters U.S. – May 8, 2014)

http://www.reuters.com/

Clyde Russell is a Reuters columnist. The views expressed are his own.

LAUNCESTON, Australia, May 8 (Reuters) – How long can strength in China’s commodity imports co-exist with weakness in other key indicators, such as manufacturing?

If you accept the argument that China can’t continue to import record, or near-record, levels of major commodities while experiencing slowing growth, then one of two outcomes becomes inevitable.

Either commodity imports start to moderate to align more closely with other economic data, such as the HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index, which fell for a fourth straight month in April, or China’s growth shows evidence of re-accelerating.

So far this year, strength in commodity imports has tended be put down to either one-off factors, or demand unrelated to actual consumption, for example, buying iron ore in order to secure financing to use in unrelated investments.

If these factors are the reason behind the seeming disconnect between natural resource imports and the overall economy, then the most likely outcome will be for imports of crude oil, iron ore, copper, soybeans and other commodities to ease in coming months.

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Indonesia’s gamble on ore export ban starts to hit home – by Ben Bland (Financial Times – May 7, 2014)

http://www.ft.com/home/us

Ketapang, West Kalimantan – Two hundred huge hauling trucks used to hurtle down the 34km dirt road from Harita’s Air Upas mine to its river port every day, shipping bauxite for China’s resource-hungry aluminium industry.

But work at the sprawling site in Ketapang, West Kalimantan, and dozens like it across Indonesia ground to a halt in January after the government defied lobbying from this powerful industry by implementing a long-planned ban on the export of unprocessed

The move is designed to promote investment in costly domestic processing facilities, but critics, such as the World Bank, say it has damaged investor confidence and is threatening the state finances.

Economic growth fell to its slowest pace in five years in the first quarter as tens of thousands of workers were made redundant and mineral exports, which reached $11bn last year, were halted.

Harita, a family-owned conglomerate, and its contractors laid off nearly 5,000 workers in this poor, remote region where mining has been a key driver of employment since much of the remaining rainforest was obliterated by illegal logging a decade ago.

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Don’t put too much stock in Putin’s so-called soft talk – by Lawrence Williams (Mineweb.com – May 8, 2014)

http://www.mineweb.com/

Is President Putin just buying time over Ukraine to protect Russia against strong sanctions should he send in the military? What does the current ebb and flow in rhetoric and action mean for gold?

LONDON (MINEWEB) – Russia’s President Putin appears to have pulled back from the brink over intervention in Eastern Ukraine – but has he really? Could he just be biding his time and taking advance measures to best protect Russia from an inevitable increase in Western sanctions – which might even have some bite next time – before making a military move. Whether Russia has troops on the Ukraine border or not is, in reality, pretty irrelevant.

If they are moved away they can just as easily be moved back again, and then across the border to ‘protect’ what Putin sees as Russia’s strategic interests. But some de-escalation just buys time in helping Russia set up bilateral trade agreements, which exclude the dollar, for key imports and exports should Russia suffer the ultimate financial sanction of exclusion from the SWIFT payments system.

This may be unlikely, but has to be in the Russian President’s thinking as a worst case scenario given the other ‘worst case’ of a military conflict between NATO and Russia has effectively been ruled out by the West.

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UPDATE 2-Glencore names ex-BP boss Tony Hayward as chairman – by Silvia Antonioli and Karolin Schaps (Reuters India – May 8, 2014)

http://in.reuters.com/

LONDON, May 8 (Reuters) – Glencore Xstrata named Tony Hayward, the ex-BP chief severely criticised for his role in the Gulf of Mexico oil spill, as permanent chairman of the mining and commodities trading group, ending a year-long search.

Hayward, who has been Glencore Xstrata’s interim chairman since Sir John Bond was ousted by shareholders last year, is also chief executive of London-listed oil company Genel Energy Plc.

His confirmation as chairman of one of the world’s largest mining groups completes Hayward’s return to the top of the corporate world after he was forced out of BP following the catastrophic 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill.

Hayward is expected to eventually step down as chief executive of Genel, the oil and gas explorer he has invested in alongside British-born financier Nat Rothschild, a source close to the matter said.

Genel, which focuses on producing oil in the autonomous Iraqi region of Kurdistan, declined to comment on whether Hayward would leave.

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Gold Fields CEO Sees South Deep Mine Ready by End 2017 – by Kevin Crowley (Bloomberg News – May 8, 2014)

http://www.bloomberg.com/

Gold Fields Ltd. (GFI)’s South Deep mine, plagued by delays since it was bought for $3 billion in 2006, will underpin long-term growth and be ready for full output by 2017, Chief Executive Officer Nick Holland said.

The company’s only South African asset, and the world’s second-biggest gold deposit, will produce 650,000 to 700,000 ounces a year at about $900 an ounce by the end of 2017 even with disruptions in the first quarter, he said.

“The build-up in production is going to come with a commensurate reduction in the cost base,” Holland said in an interview. “We’ve got all the infrastructure already built.”

Gold Fields needs South Deep to help reverse a 54 percent slump in its stock since spinning off three South African mines to create Sibanye Gold Ltd. (SGL) in February last year. The mine cost Gold Fields about $4 billion, including the purchase price, and is seen producing 700,000 ounces a year until at least 2075.

South Deep “is going to fundamentally change the group’s margin delivery and performance,” Holland said.

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UPDATE 1-Stanford University ending investments in coal companies – by Rory Carroll (Reuters India – May 7, 2014)

http://in.reuters.com/

May 7 (Reuters) – Stanford University said on Tuesday it will no longer use any of its $18.7 billion endowment to invest in coal mining companies, a move aimed at combating climate change that could influence college administrations elsewhere.

The university’s board of trustees agreed with recommendations from a panel of students, faculty, staff and alumni that found investments in alternatives to coal would be less harmful to the environment. The burning of coal for electricity is a major contributor to the output of heat-trapping greenhouse gas emissions globally.

The Stanford announcement is the most significant to date from a major, well-endowed college or university in the United States amid a growing movement by students around the country to pressure their institutions to divest from fossil fuels.

“The university’s review has concluded that coal is one of the most carbon-intensive methods of energy generation and that other sources can be readily substituted for it,” said Stanford President John Hennessy.

It was announced on the same day the White House released a report warning that climate change was already affecting the United States in the form of more severe droughts in some areas and more intense storms in others.

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In waste rock, mining companies find opportunity and create jobs [Minnesotta iron range] – by Dan Kraker (Minnesota Public Radio – May 4, 2014)

http://minnesota.publicradio.org/features/

The rising price of iron ore and other metals in the last decade has led mining companies to an important discovery: There’s money to be made in what was once considered waste.

Minnesota’s Iron Range is littered with the legacy of 130 years of iron mining. Mine pits, enormous waste rock piles and tailings basins dot the landscape.

A newfound interest in the leftover rock is leading to a resurgence of mining on the western edge of the Iron Range, between Grand Rapids and Hibbing.

At the forefront is a company called Magnetation, which is building its fourth plant outside Grand Rapids. In what old mining companies considered junk rock, Matt Lehtinen, the company’s 32-year-old president, sees opportunity.

“Behind me here is actually a stockpile of waste iron ore called coarse tailings, about 400,000 tons of high grade waste, that 50 years ago was waste, but now is actually considered high grade feed for us for this plant,” he said.

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COLUMN-Bulls lose patience with zinc’s slow-burn story – by Andy Home (Reuters U.S. – May 7, 2014)

http://www.reuters.com/

Andy Home is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

May 7 (Reuters) – Markets are fickle things. A few months ago zinc was the only game in town among the base metals traded on the London Metal Exchange (LME). The market was chasing a bullish story of pending supply shortfall as some of the world’s largest mines reach the end of their natural lives.

Now, however, metal bulls are shunning the zinc market, turning their attentions to nickel with its equally compelling story-line of mine shortfall after the January imposition of a ban on nickel ore exports by Indonesia.

LME three-month nickel has gained 30 percent, while three-month zinc has fallen by 2 percent since the start of this year. So what has changed to explain zinc’s fall from bullish favour? Nothing, according to Canadian producer Teck Resources , which in its Q1 2014 results reiterated the bull argument for zinc.

“We believe the outlook for zinc is the most favourable of the base metals. With recent and expected closures of a number of zinc mines, we believe that approximately 1.5 million tonnes of current zinc mine production will be closed by the end of 2016 in a 13 million tonne per year market.”

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Glencore Xstrata plumbs new depths at nickel mine – by Neil Hume and James Wilson (Financial Times – May 6, 2014)

http://www.ft.com/home/us

Glencore Xstrata has revealed further problems with one of the “greenfield” projects it inherited through its takeover of rival mining group Xstrata, underlining the difficulties of developing large mines from scratch in far-flung locations.

Koniambo, a nickel mine on the Pacific island of New Caledonia, has been dogged by cost overruns and delays since it was approved by Xstrata seven years ago.

The budget has risen from $3.8bn to more than $6bn, and production forecasts have been revised several times.
Glencore had expected output to reach 26,000 tonnes of nickel this year, rising to 55,000 tonnes in 2015.

But in a trading statement released on Tuesday, the Swiss-based company said Koniambo had produced just 1,000 tonnes of nickel in the first quarter of 2014 because of problems with power supplies and maintenance. “Forecast full-year production levels are being reviewed in light of the quarterly operational performance and the start-up experiences to date,” Glencore said in a statement.

Koniambo is one of several instances where Glencore has had to revise the engineering plans left by the previous Xstrata management team.

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New documentary explores South Africa mine shootings – by Nomatter Ndebele (Reuters India – May 6, 2014)

http://in.reuters.com/

JOHANNESBURG, May 6 (Reuters) – It was like a scene from the darkest days of apartheid: South African police opening fire with live ammunition, killing 34 striking black miners demanding a “living wage” from an international firm rich in capital.

But the killings outside of the Marikana mine of platinum company Lonmin happened on August 16, 2012, almost two decades after Nelson Mandela’s “Rainbow Nation” exchanged white-minority rule for multi-racial democracy.

A new documentary “Miners Shot Down”, by South African filmmaker Rehad Desai, explores the events leading up to what has been dubbed “the Marikana Massacre”.

The film has a special resonance at the moment because most of the country’s platinum miners have been on strike for a “living wage” of 12,500 rand ($1,200) a month for the past 15 weeks and a general election will be held on Wednesday.

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Fortescue Metals to diversify beyond China – by Jamie Smyth (Financial Times – May 6, 2014)

http://www.ft.com/home/us

Fortescue Metals Group, one of the “big three” Australian iron ore miners, is expanding its customer base beyond China as global investors fret over how a slowdown in Chinese economic growth will affect steel demand.

Nev Power, Fortescue’s chief executive, said the company was supplying some customers in South Korea, and wanted to trial iron ore sales to Japan and across Asia.

“We will keep an open mind as other economies such as India develop. The Taiwanese are developing a steel mill in Vietnam so there is starting to be diversification. I think there are opportunities for us,” he said.

The price of iron ore – used in steelmaking – suffered one of its biggest one-day falls in March over fears that a cooling Chinese economy would damp demand for the raw material at a time when production reached record highs.

Iron ore prices fell again last week following a warning by Vale, the Brazilian miner, that supply had outstripped demand for the first time in a decade due to softening China demand. Mr Power said price volatility was being driven by the rundown of high stock levels at Chinese ports, and Beijing’s recent crackdown on iron ore import loans.

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Why Ukraine Crisis Could Drive Nickel To $25,000/Tonne – by (Forbes Magazine – May 5, 2014)

http://www.forbes.com/

Nickel has enjoyed a solid price spurt in recent months, fuelled by fears over heavy supply disruptions after Indonesia — home to around a fifth of total nickel production — placed an export ban on nickel ore back in January.

The move was prompted by a 2009 law calling for more domestic refined output, a situation which is significantly hampering Chinese production of nickel pig iron (NPI) as ore shipments dry up. As Indonesian refining capacity could be described as inadequate at best, nickel prices have shot 35% higher since the turn of the year, striking 14-month peaks above $18,700 per tonne in the process and looking poised for another move skywards.

Meanwhile, the evolving political situation in Ukraine is also adding pressure to the nickel market, and analysts reckon that a backdrop of escalating trade restrictions on Moscow from the West could add fresh ammunition for the metal to surge still higher.

Indeed, Bank of America-Merrill Lynch upped its price forecasts in recent weeks in anticipation of lingering output issues worldwide, and fully expects the metal to strike $25,000 within the next 12 months.

The institution reckons that issues in Indonesia are set to push the nickel market into deficit next year, while the possibility of curbs on Russian shipments could drive stocks to critically low levels in coming months.

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Banks Sued on Claims of Fixing Price of Gold – by Alan Feuer (New York Times – May 5, 2014)

http://www.nytimes.com/

Frustrated traders and offbeat activists have complained for years in whispers and in online screeds that the price of gold has been subject to collusion. On Monday, these accusations of manipulation found a more august arena for expression: the federal courts.

At a 40-minute hearing, lawyers for more than 20 plaintiffs gathered in Federal District Court in Manhattan to coordinate their linked lawsuits against the five banks that make up what is known as the London gold fix. The suits, filed by hedge funds, private citizens and public investors like the Alaska Electrical Pension Fund, contend that the banks have used their privileged positions as market makers to rig the price of gold to their benefit.

The lawsuits — the first of which was filed in March — question the integrity of the gold fix, which dates to 1919, when a handful of bankers began to meet in the wood-paneled offices of N. M. Rothschild & Sons in London. The purpose of the fix is to set a benchmark price for gold, which is subsequently used by dealers, central banks and mining firms to buy and sell the precious metal and its various derivatives.

These days, the fix takes place by phone twice a day — at 10:30 a.m. London time and again at 3 p.m. — and generally lasts 10 minutes to an hour. According to one of the suits, “The ‘great flaw’ of the gold fixing process is that the member banks trade on the information exchanged during the call to manipulate the price of gold and gold derivatives before publication of the gold fix to the wider market.”

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China’s Baosteel in $1 billion bid to revive Australia iron ore project – by Sonali Paul (Reuters U.S. – May 5, 2014)

http://www.reuters.com/

SYDNEY – (Reuters) – Chinese steel giant Baosteel Resources and an Australian partner launched a $1 billion takeover bid for Australian explorer Aquila Resources in a move that could help break the grip of mega iron ore exporters Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton.

Monday’s unsolicited A$1.14 billion ($1.06 billion) offer to take over Aquila Resources Ltd (AQA.AX) could open up a new Australian iron ore export region to supply Asian steelmakers, by jumpstarting the $7 billion West Pilbara Iron Ore project (WPIO), half-owned by Aquila.

State-owned Baosteel’s move would be the biggest foray into an undeveloped iron ore project in Australia by a Chinese investor since CITIC Pacific’s (0267.HK) $10 billion Sino Iron project, which began producing last year after massive cost blowouts and delays.

Baosteel, which already has a 20 percent stake in Aquila, said it first invested in the company back in 2009 to help it fund the iron ore project and a separate coking coal mine.

“But after five years we haven’t seen any projects being started. So we have been very patient, but we’ve become frustrated,” chief financial officer Wu Yiming told reporters on a conference call from Sydney.

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Famed Gold Rush era shipwreck yields more treasure – by Dorothy Kosich (Mineweb.com – May 6, 2014)

http://www.mineweb.com/

One of the U.S’s most famous shipwrecks – and the millions of dollars in gold that it carried when it went down 4 years before the U.S. Civil War – is being re-explored after 23 years.

RENO (MINEWEB) – Nearly 1,000 gold ounces (28 kilograms) have been recovered during the first reconnaissance dive since 1991 to the SS Central America shipwreck site deep in the ocean east of Charleston, South Carolina.

Launched in 1853, the SS Central America is an 85-meter (280 foot) wooden-hulled, three-masted side-wheel steamship that operated during the California Gold Rush era, making 43 round trips between New York City and Panama.

On August 20, 1857, the mail steamer Sonora left San Francisco harbor carrying about 600 passengers and crew, as well as 10 tonnes of gold ingots, freshly-minted U.S. $20 Double Eagle coins, nuggets and gold dust mined in the California Gold Rush.

It also carried the largest Gold Rush relic, the Eureka Bar, which weighed 933.94 troy ounces, and was valued at $17,433 in 1857. The Eureka gold bar was scheduled to be melted and turned into coinage at the Philadelphia Mint.

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