Clyde Russell is a Reuters columnist. The views expressed are his own.
LAUNCESTON, Australia, May 8 (Reuters) – How long can strength in China’s commodity imports co-exist with weakness in other key indicators, such as manufacturing?
If you accept the argument that China can’t continue to import record, or near-record, levels of major commodities while experiencing slowing growth, then one of two outcomes becomes inevitable.
Either commodity imports start to moderate to align more closely with other economic data, such as the HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index, which fell for a fourth straight month in April, or China’s growth shows evidence of re-accelerating.
So far this year, strength in commodity imports has tended be put down to either one-off factors, or demand unrelated to actual consumption, for example, buying iron ore in order to secure financing to use in unrelated investments.
If these factors are the reason behind the seeming disconnect between natural resource imports and the overall economy, then the most likely outcome will be for imports of crude oil, iron ore, copper, soybeans and other commodities to ease in coming months.