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A potential combination of the world’s two biggest nitrogen producers threatens to break up the established order in the fertilizer industry and create a new dominant player to match Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc.
U.S. producer CF Industries Holdings Inc. and Norwegian firm Yara International ASA announced Tuesday they are in early negotiations to form a US$27-billion giant. It would be the untouchable leader of the nitrogen fertilizer sector, with more than four times as much ammonia production capacity as the next largest rival.
“We’ve had a slew of M&A on the nitrogen side in the last four or five years, but it would be the crowning achievement if these guys get together,” said Spencer Churchill, an analyst at Paradigm Capital. “Because they would be just a dominant force.”
The proposed “merger of equals” got an immediate thumbs-up from investors and analysts, as the two companies appear to be a sensible fit. CF is the dominant producer in the United States, while Yara is a big player in other countries and has a broad distribution network that CF can access. There are possible tax synergies for CF shareholders if the combined company is headquartered outside the U.S. And Yara would benefit from the low natural gas prices CF enjoys in North America.
Nitrogen prices have held up better than potash prices in recent years. As a result, there is speculation a combined CF-Yara could become the flagship investment in the sector, unseating Potash Corp.