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Analysts differ on timing and effect of the end of commodities ‘super-cycle’
Commodities, the lifeblood of the British Columbia economy, are at the beginning of a long, downward trend that is bound to affect both government and households, says a Simon Fraser University economist.
“We have seen the best days in terms of dramatic increases in commodity prices,” David Jacks, an economic historian at the university, said in an interview.
He said commodities, particularly minerals and energy, are characterized by long-term trends related to global industrialization and urbanization. That growth runs up against capacity constraints, particularly in minerals and energy, leading to rising prices. New capacity to meet the new demand then leads to prices easing.
The current cycle, which has been going on since 1998, is being driven by Asian, specifically Chinese, economic growth and urbanization. Jacks has written a paper, From Boom to Bust, on the super-cycle, which he prepared for a recent conference in Australia on commodity price volatility. Jacks said his is not the only voice warning that commodities are beginning to trend downward in price — investment bankers Goldman Sachs and Citybank have done the same.