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Canadian miners desperately need domestic and allied capital – but so far, it’s China that’s filling the gap.- by Joseph Bouchard (MacDonald Laurier Institute – March 14, 2024)

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After more than a decade of aggressive efforts and development, China now stands tall as the largest mining producer and financier in the world, by some margin. It is the leading miner of 29 commodities including aluminum, coal, gold, magnesium, tin, phosphate, nitrogen, zinc, graphite, tungsten, rare earths, and other critical minerals.

Canada, which used to be a leading force despite its small demographic size and investment pool, is now at the bottom end of the global top 10 mineral producers. Still, China is looking to capitalize on the extent of Canada’s mining network nationally and around the world to advance its interests.

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Turks pile into the dollar, gold and stocks as 67% inflation savages ‘worthless lira’ – by Scott McLean, Anna Cooban and Ipek Yezdani (CNN Business – March 20, 2024)

https://edition.cnn.com/

Down a dimly lit alleyway tucked just inside Istanbul’s Grand Bazaar, a few dozen men are packed together, shouting, waving, and frantically speaking on their phones, others nervously pacing. This “standing market” — a low-rent version of a chaotic stock exchange floor — is where Istanbul’s traders come to deal in precious metals and currencies. These days it’s dollars and gold they’re after. Turkish lira, not so much.

“Right now our money is almost worthless. Since people haven’t seen inflation fall, they don’t trust the Turkish lira anymore,” explained Adnan Kapukaya, a trader and market expert. Inflation in Turkey remains sky-high — official figures show prices rose 67% last month compared with February 2023, though unofficial estimates suggest the real number is more than 100%. And this despite the Turkish central bank hiking interest rates to an eye-watering 45% in January — up from a low of 8.5% a year ago.

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India in undersea race to mine world’s battery metal – by Navin Singh Khadka (BBC World Service – March 20, 2024)

https://www.bbc.com/

India is taking another step in its quest to find valuable minerals hidden in the depths of the ocean which could hold the key to a cleaner future. The country, which already has two deep-sea exploration licences in the Indian Ocean, has applied for two more amid increasing competition between major global powers to secure critical minerals.

Countries including China, Russia and India are vying to reach the huge deposits of mineral resources – cobalt, nickel, copper, manganese – that lie thousands of metres below the surface of oceans. These are used to produce renewable energy such as solar and wind power, electric vehicles and battery technology needed to battle against climate change.

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Green premium won’t save Australian nickel – by Elouise Fowler (Australian Financial Review – March 10, 2024)

https://www.afr.com/

The boss of acquisitive copper producer Metals Acquisition says the nickel market has “fundamentally shifted” and it is unlikely the world’s largest buyer, China, will pay a “green premium” for the commodity.

Even if nickel miners could fetch a green premium, it may not be enough to make nickel mined outside Indonesia attractive, said Mick McMullen, who is scouring the globe for mines to add to his portfolio.Indonesian nickel has flooded the market, crashing the price of the metal required for steel-making and batteries.

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Nickel from China, Indonesia could face tariffs over market manipulation concerns, Ottawa says – by Niall McGee (Globe and Mail – March 7, 2024)

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/

Federal Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson says Canada and other Western countries could consider imposing tariffs against Indonesia and China because of the potential for market manipulation stemming from their stranglehold on the global nickel market.

Indonesia has gone from supplying 7 per cent of the global supply of nickel to 55 per cent in the past decade, with much of that new production controlled by China-based mining companies with ties to the authoritarian Beijing government.

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OPINION: Has Canada gone too far in blocking mining investments from Chinese companies? – by Patrick Leblond (Globe and Mail – March 7, 2024)

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/

SRG Mining announced this week that it was putting an end to Carbon One New Energy Group’s proposed $16.9-million investment in the Canadian miner. Although the company did not officially say so, the belief is that a national security review by the federal government was going to scupper the transaction between SRG and C-One of China.

Under the Investment Canada Act, the federal government has the right to review foreign investments in Canadian companies to protect our national security. One of the factors used by the government when assessing national security implications, as per the Guidelines on the National Security Review of Investments, is “the potential impact of the investment on critical minerals and critical mineral supply chains.”

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How Will Chinese Investors Navigate Indonesia’s Post-election Risks? – by Ahmad Syarif (The Diplomat – March 7, 2024)

https://thediplomat.com/

Chinese firms, which have established good relations with President Joko Widodo’s cabinet, are quietly putting out feelers ahead of the changeover of administration.

Over the past ten years, China has emerged as a significant foreign investor in Indonesia. Between 2019 and 2022 alone, according to data from the Ministry of Investment, Chinese companies invested $20.9 billion across 9,080 projects in the country.

Chinese investments in Indonesia can be categorized into two distinct groups. The first are those of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and state-supported initiatives, which encompass major infrastructure projects like railways, power plants, and other government-sponsored developments.

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Kazakhstan positions itself for lithium windfall (Eurasianet.org – March 6, 2024)

https://eurasianet.org/

The National Geological Service says the country has lithium reserves of around 75,600 tons.

Kazakhstan is positioning itself as an important potential global supplier of high-quality lithium just as demand surges for the mineral, which is indispensable for the booming power-storage technology industry. The auspices are good, although few firm investment commitments have materialized.

Speaking at a conference in Seoul on March 5, researchers from the Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources announced that they had discovered sizable lithium reserves in an area of eastern Kazakhstan.

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Indonesia and China killed the nickel market – by Rich Mills – Ahead of the Herd (Mining.com – March 4, 2024)

https://www.mining.com/

The mantra? Our fossil-fueled based transportation system needs to be 100% electrified, and the switch must be made from oil, gas, and coal-powered power plants to those which run on solar, wind and nuclear energy. If we have any hope of cleaning up the planet, before the point of no return, a massive decarbonization needs to take place.

This has to involve a colossal boost in the production of mined metals, including lithium, graphite, cobalt and nickel for lithium-ion batteries used in EVs, renewable energy grid storage and consumer electronics; copper for electric vehicle motors, charging stations and renewable energy plants; silver for solar panels and EVs.

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‘Data not accurate’: Macquarie’s nickel veteran says rout ending – by Hans van Leeuwen (Australian Financial Review – March 2024)

https://www.afr.com/

London | The nickel turmoil of last year may blow over more quickly than previously expected, according to Macquarie’s 44-year veteran nickel watcher Jim Lennon, as unexpectedly high Chinese demand and potentially slower Indonesian growth rebalance the market.

Mr Lennon has just returned from a visit to China that has triggered a “major change” to Macquarie’s forecasts for nickel – a market in which prices nose-dived by almost 50 per cent last year, and which many analysts still expect to be stuck in the doldrums this year.

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Nickel producers fear growing Indonesian pricing power – by Andy Home (Reuters – March 5, 2024)

https://www.reuters.com/

LONDON, March 5 (Reuters) – An Indonesian nickel producer has for the first time ever applied to have its metal listed as a good delivery brand on the London Metal Exchange (LME). Indonesia has rapidly emerged as the new powerhouse of global nickel production but until now has not produced the metal in the high-purity form traded on either the LME or the Shanghai Futures Exchange.

That will change if PT CNGR Ding Xing New Energy gets the official nod for its “DX-zwdx” brand of full-plate nickel cathode. It is likely to do so since the LME is fast-tracking new nickel listings as part of its recovery plan after the market meltdown in 2022. The policy appears to be paying off for the exchange with stocks and trading volumes rising.

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Beijing’s Bubble Bursts Part 3 – by Diane Francis (Substack – March 4, 2024)

https://dianefrancis.substack.com/

On October 17, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) celebrated its tenth anniversary with great fanfare in Beijing. Vladimir Putin and the head of Afghanistan’s Taliban regime attended, along with leaders from 130 countries.

There were speeches and banquets to celebrate President Xi Jinping’s flagship initiative. He delivered a grand speech and claimed huge success, but numbers tell a different story. Another gigantic Chinese real estate conglomerate last week filed for bankruptcy in a Hong Kong court. The economy is slowly tanking, sinking under massive real estate and government debts. (See my Beijing’s Bubble Bursts, Part 1 and Part 2.)

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Entire Aussie industry on the brink amid China move – by Jamie Seidel (News.com.au – February 29, 2024)

https://www.news.com.au/

The commodity is meant to be the answer to the green revolution but it’s on the brink of collapse and Australia is in the firing line. Analysts believe up to half of the world’s nickel mines are unprofitable at current prices. And those prices are unlikely to change anytime soon. That has profound implications for Australia’s multinational miner, BHP.

While nickel is only a minor component of its overall portfolio, the “Big Australian” had high hopes for the critical mineral’s future. It’s a key ingredient in advanced batteries and high-efficiency electric motors. And both are crucial in the race to limit the impact of CO2-induced climate change.

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Indonesia says its nickel supply will keep global prices low – by Eddie Spence and Eko Listiyorini (Bloomberg News – February 29, 2024)

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/

Indonesia, the world’s largest nickel exporter, has a sobering message for struggling producers of the battery metal elsewhere: don’t expect any meaningful revival in prices.

Septian Hario Seto, the government official who has overseen Indonesia’s nickel processing boom, says prices are unlikely to rise much above $18,000 a ton on the London Metal Exchange. The Southeast Asian nation will ensure the market remains well supplied to keep costs lower for electric vehicle manufacturers, he said.

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Canadian gold miner agrees to sell itself to Chinese company in possible test of Ottawa policy – by Naimul Karim (Financial Post – February 26, 2024)

https://financialpost.com/

Yintai Gold to buy Osino Resources for $368 million

Ottawa’s policy of preventing Chinese companies from investing in Canadian-listed firms may be put to the test after Vancouver-based Osino Resources Corp. agreed to be bought by Yintai Gold Co. Ltd. for $368 million.

Yintai’s main interest in Osino seems to be the latter’s gold project in central Namibia. The Twin Hills Gold project is expected to have a 13-year mine life with average gold production of more than 169,000 ounces per year, according to a third-party study. The project is expected to generate about US$1.5 billion with a relatively low cost of about $365 million to build the mine.

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