Clyde Russell is a Reuters columnist. The views expressed are his own.
LAUNCESTON, Australia, July 22 (Reuters) – Rising Chinese output is likely to act as a brake on aluminium’s 15 percent rally since May, even as the global outlook for the industrial metal improves.
It’s no secret that much of Chinese aluminium smelting capacity operates at a loss and is reliant on subsidies from local and regional governments to survive.
But the price gain in the second quarter resulted in capacity that was either idled, or about to be shut, remaining in operation, according to a July 17 report from Beijing-based consultants AZ China.
This is despite some 80 percent of Chinese smelters, representing some 20 million tonnes of annual capacity, operating at a theoretical loss, AZ China said.
The average cash cost for a Chinese aluminium smelter in the second quarter was 14,161 yuan ($2,282) a tonne, above the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) spot price of 13,435 yuan, the report said.
Still, the average cash cost for Chinese smelters was 2 percent lower in the second quarter than the first as inputs such as electricity and alumina decreased in price, allowing plants to remain in business.