As the world races to transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy, a new energy order is beginning to emerge—one that promises cleaner air and climate resilience but also portends fresh geopolitical tensions. The shift to solar, wind, hydrogen, and rare earth-powered technologies is not merely a technological revolution; it is a profound geopolitical reordering with the potential to ignite a new spectrum of global conflict.
From the strategic control of critical minerals to green technology rivalry, energy access disputes, and economic power realignment, the green transition may ironically generate new fault lines even as it attempts to heal the planet.
The End of Oil Wars?
For much of the 20th and early 21st centuries, access to oil and gas has been a key driver of global conflict. The 1991 Gulf War, the 2003 Iraq War, and Russia’s strategic hold over Europe via gas pipelines all reflect the centrality of hydrocarbons in world politics. As Daniel Yergin, author of The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power, notes, fossil fuels have underpinned not only energy security but also military logistics, alliance structures, and strategic coercion.
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