Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has forever changed global commodities markets. The economic sanctions subsequently imposed on Russia exposed multiple risks related to (over)reliance on a single or dominant suppliers of critical materials (Sukhankin 2024a). The European Union (EU) was hit particularly hard thanks to its decades-long reliance on Russia’s inexpensive commodities. The EU’s dependence also made it vulnerable to external pressure and blackmail.
The “Russia sanctions” fallout has revealed a much bigger problem. While natural resources will continue to be used as a geopolitical weapon in the unfolding East-West rivalry, the focus is likely to shift from hydrocarbons to critical minerals in the medium-term. This trend is visible in China’s series of decisions (2023–25) to restrict exports of several types of critical metals and technologies (Shivaprasad, Lv, and Jackson 2024) that are instrumental for innovation and technological sectors of Western economies.
Among those critical minerals, uranium will likely become a main “metal of discord” between global powers, thanks to the strategic importance of nuclear energy and the relative rarity of the mineral. Further complicating matters, uranium’s leading global producer, Kazakhstan is reportedly considering nationalization of its uranium sector (Kazakhstan’s economy is heavily dependent on China, while its security is influenced by Russia) (Energy Intelligence 2025).
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