Electric Vehicles Will Rule the World By 2040. The Winners and Losers. – by Al Root (Barron’s – June 22, 2021)


A lot of electric vehicles are going to be sold in the coming generation. That’s good news for Tesla. It’s also good news for a host of other auto makers, including some start-ups. It’s bad news, surprisingly, for NIO and its Chinese EV peers.

Tuesday, Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter published a very detailed forecast for EV sales stretching all the way out to 2040. He forecasts sales and market share for essentially every major auto maker globally.

“We have spent the past few months assembling a brand-by-brand, region-by-region forecast for battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales,” writes the analyst. Looking ahead, he forecasts EV penetration at 45% of new car sales by 2030 and 94% by 2040.

Potter is predicting the EV takeover of the global automotive industry will be complete in 19 years.

At the top of the market share list sits Volkswagen (ticker: VOW.Germany), not Tesla (TSLA). Potter predicts Volkswagen will sell about 9.2 million EVs in 2040, or 11.4% of the global total.

For the rest of this article: https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-gm-ev-winners-51624377248