An all-out trade war with China would cost Australia 6% of GDP – by Rod Tyers and Yixiao Zhou (The Conversation – November 30, 2020)

https://theconversation.com/

China accounts for more than a third of export dollars earned by Australia. The figures, for the 12 months to October, cover the period of coronavirus disruptions and disputes over trade.

They apply to physical exports rather than harder to measure services, and are dominated by record high Chinese takings of Australian iron ore. But they mightn’t last.

China is changing, transitioning from growth driven by the iron-ore hungry expansion of cities and manufacturing to growth driven more by the supply of services.

Externally, its “belt and road” infrastructure investments facilitate the supply of resources from locations other than Australia, among them the Simandou iron ore and bauxite deposits in Guinea, West Africa that will eventually offer higher quality ore than Australia from a region China may regard as more friendly.

Even if this source is slow to emerge, China will seek to diversify its supplies of iron ore by other means, as suggested by Australia’s former ambassador Geoff Raby in his recent book China’s Grand Strategy and Australia’s Future in the New Global Order.

For the rest of this article: https://theconversation.com/an-all-out-trade-war-with-china-would-cost-australia-6-of-gdp-151070

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