LAUNCESTON, Australia, May 29 (Reuters) – One of the lessons from recent history is that intractable disputes are rarely solved as long as one or more of the parties believe they can win.
This appears to be the case with the increasingly confrontational situation between China and its neighbours over the South China Sea, with all sides still pressing claims unacceptable to each other.
The latest flashpoint is the Chinese decision to position an oil drilling rig in the South China Sea in waters claimed by both China and Vietnam.
Vietnam claimed one it its fishing boats, operating near the rig, was sunk by Chinese craft on May 26, prompting Beijing to say it capsized after “harassing” and colliding with a Chinese vessel.
And it’s not just China and Vietnam, with the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan all claiming parts of the South China Sea, while rejecting China’s assertion that 90 percent of the waters belong to it.
China is also engaged in a dispute with Japan over small islands that lie between them in the East China Sea, with Chinese fighter jets flying in close proximity to a Japanese surveillance aircraft in the latest ratcheting up of tensions.
In trying to understand the dispute, it’s always best to ask what’s at stake.
On an economic level it’s believed the South China Sea is rich in oil and gas deposits, with the U.S. Energy Information Agency estimating 11 billion barrels of oil and 190 trillion cubic feet of gas in proved and probable reserves.
For China, developing major oil and gas fields under its sovereign control has obvious appeal, but both Vietnam and the Philippines are also hungry for energy resources.
On the political side it appears that China is becoming more assertive, taking the view that its status as Asia’s largest economy means it should take more of a leading role in the region.
Beijing is also investing heavily in boosting its military capabilities to give muscle to a more robust approach, and also to counter the influence of the United States, which counts Japan, the Philippines and Australia as firm allies in the region.
For the smaller countries of Southeast Asia there appears to be a determination to stand up to what they see as Chinese bullying, using the tactic learned by children in playgrounds across the world that unless you stand up to the bully, he will continue his bad behaviour.
But this isn’t a schoolyard and the legitimate fear is that the situation can move quickly from sinking fishing boats to armed skirmishes and ultimately all out conflict.
The main problem is that the countries involved haven’t yet worked out that none of them can win.
For the rest of this column, click here: http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/05/29/column-russell-china-oil-idINL3N0OF0MG20140529