http://www.iol.co.za/sundayindependent [South Africa]
The 2013 Mining Lekgotla presented a unique opportunity for various stakeholders in the industry – mining companies, trade unions, mining communities and the government – to reflect on the state of the South African mining sector.
Taking place after the adoption of the National Development Plan (NDP) and during the month of the first anniversary of the Marikana tragedy, the lekgotla was an important forum to discuss not only measures required to prevent a recurrence of that tragedy; but also to identify a long-term path for the sector. As is expected across the economy, the time has come to develop Mining Vision 2030, as a contribution to the realisation of NDP objectives.
What are some of the major issues that the industry needs to take into account in this regard?
The NDP economic storyline includes such issues as the infrastructure programme, development of manufacturing, Green Economy opportunities and mass employment in agriculture. Critically, it acknowledges that there is no other sector in South Africa that contains possibilities to spur all these efforts than mining.
This is not just a sentiment of history. Mining remains a pillar of the economy. Combined with supplies to the industry (backward linkages) and activities beyond extraction (forward linkages), mining contributes about 18.7 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), and around the same percentage of total private fixed investments and corporate tax receipts. It provides about 1.3 million jobs and 47 percent of the country’s exports.
Recent analysis of the global state of mining creates an impression that this is an industry in decline. Reference is made to the downturn in the global economy and the fact that China, the main market for most minerals in the past decade, is reconfiguring its economy towards domestic consumption. While there is some truth in this assessment, its weakness is the failure to differentiate between temporary and cyclical indicators.
Even though the commodities super-cycle of the past decade may taper off, medium- to long-term global trends point to continuing demand for most minerals. Urbanisation is accelerating in China and the rest of the developing world, along with the rapid rise of a global “middle class”.
It is estimated that some 3 billion more people will live in urban areas by 2050, which as early as 2025 will require about $80 trillion in investments. The global car fleet is expected to double to 1.7 billion by 2030. India, Vietnam and countries of sub-Saharan Africa – to quote a few examples – are following in China’s industrialisation footsteps, including through low-end manufacturing.
This will drive the demand for such minerals as iron, nickel, copper, platinum group metals, vanadium, manganese, chrome and gold. South Africa has most of these endowments in abundance.
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