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TORONTO (miningweekly.com) – Head of Kaiser Research Online, John Kaiser, delivered his keynote speech at the Toronto Resource Investment Conference on September 13, telling delegates the gold narrative is changing and that hundreds of juniors were about to be culled.
Kaiser started by considering the resource supercycle’s effect on the metals markets over the past ten years, noting the current retrenchment as China and other Asian economies witnessed a fall back in growth.
The economic performance of the US and Europe would become the driving force for the next few years, he said. “But we’re not going to see demand ratchet up because these economies aren’t going to grow at huge rates. There’s also lot of new supply for metal coming on stream over the next few years.”
Kaiser predicted it will take four or five years before demand starts outstripping supply at a noteworthy rate. “This means we’ll have to live with sideways metal prices that won’t go up in a big way except under extreme circumstances.”
Kaiser had analysed merger and acquisition (M&A) activity through the TSX-V over the previous decade. “There was $129-billion-worth of takeover bids that involved juniors,” he said.