While it is not certain the ban will go ahead unchanged, if it does, analysts say, it would be a game-changer for prices.
LONDON (REUTERS) – A potential ban on nickel ore exports by Indonesia next year and production cutbacks could lift the price of this year’s worst-performing base metal by more than 20 percent off multi-year lows, analysts said.
Indonesia, the world’s top exporter of nickel ore, has said it plans to bring in a ban on unprocessed ore exports from Jan. 1, 2014. Its ore is currently shipped to China to produce nickel pig iron, a cheap substitute for higher grade nickel in stainless steel.
It is not certain that the ban will go ahead unchanged, but if it does analysts said it would be a game-changer for prices. Benchmark nickel on the London Metal Exchange has fallen by around a fifth since January to four-year lows, weighed down by over-supply, and was trading at $13,963 a tonne at 1529 GMT on Thursday.
“It’s such an important swing factor for the market that you could see a decent rally in the nickel market if a ban is strictly enforced – at least 20 or 30 percent,” said Daniel Smith, head of metals research at Standard Chartered.