The Globe and Mail is Canada’s national newspaper with the second largest broadsheet circulation in the country. It has enormous influence on Canada’s political and business elite.
Emerging markets currencies endured an evil beating Friday as global markets adopted a decidedly “risk-off” tone. There were many causes of the sell-off, but weak economic data from China played an important role.
For Canadian investors, the apparent end of emerging markets outperformance has huge implications. Specifically, investors in the domestic mining sector should cherish their memories of the 2009 to 2010 boom, because it’s unlikely things will ever be that good again.
The chart shows how, in hindsight, the Canadian mining sector was easy money in mid 2009. Mining stocks were cheap, which made for a lucrative jump off point. But the big catalyst for the sector was an aggressive monetary policy in China. The Chinese government made a determined, sustained effort to restore economic growth by fully opening the spigots on credit.
It took about 12 months for the Canadian mining sector to feel the positive effects from Chinese policy. Under direct orders from the federal government, Chinese banks beginning in early 2009 started handing out loans to any local businessperson that asked.