Iron ore prices that retreated to a five-year low this month will remain weak for a sustained period as supply exceeds demand and China’s economy slows, according to Tom Albanese, former head of Rio Tinto Group.
High-cost producers are facing a “pain point” at prices of about $80 a metric ton, Albanese, chief executive officer of London-based Vedanta Resources Plc (VED), said in interviews with Bloomberg Television and a reporter today. While low-cost producers would still be able to make good money in iron ore, there will be closures of higher-cost mines over time, he said.
The raw material lost 42 percent this year as Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP) expanded supplies, pushing the market into a glut just as demand growth slowed in China. Australia’s state forecaster cut its price estimates for this year and 2015 last week and predicted further closures of high-cost producers. Iron ore is heading for “pitiless pricing” on the expansions by major miners, according to Credit Suisse Group AG.
“At $80, the prices are at a pain point for many higher-cost producers,” said Albanese, who headed Rio from 2007 to 2013. “In this environment, you now have supply probably in excess of demand. It doesn’t take much to drive prices lower.”