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Until now, most experts have been reluctant to use the term “currency war” to describe this year’s global arms race in foreign exchange markets. But China certainly fired a big shot over the bow this week.
By formally cutting the government-managed value of the yuan, China raised the trend of increasingly competitive currency devaluations to a new level. In a world where struggling economies have been adopting policies that have driven their currencies lower in not particularly transparent attempts to stimulate export growth (30 central banks have cut interest rates this year), the world’s biggest exporter went to a new extreme to defend its turf.
Other export countries – including Canada, which has cut rates twice since January and is banking on an export recovery to revive its flagging economy – will surely feel the heat. So will the global financial markets, which look more fragile with every new volley in the currency battle.
There’s no reason to think all this will end well. About the best we can hope for is that it will all prove pointless.