LONDON – The world is producing too much aluminum. That’s what the price says. London Metal Exchange metal for three-month delivery is currently trading just above $1,600 per tonne, a level which is simply not sustainable for many higher-cost producers.
There have been plenty of smelter closures and curtailments. But not enough, particularly in China, which is exporting its surplus to the rest of the world in the form of semi-fabricated products.
Widespread allegations that some of these are “fake semis” have added extra heat to already simmering trade tensions. Aluminum’s problems have a lot to do with the metal’s production process.
Bauxite, the key metallic input, is a commonly occurring mineral and one that can be easily scooped out of the ground without the need for “hard rock” mining.
That abundance of supply has been proven by Indonesia’s ban on exports of bauxite to China.