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Vale’s Cut Is No Panacea for Iron Ore, Morgan Stanley Says – by David Stringer (Bloomberg News – July 13, 2015)

http://www.bloomberg.com/

Iron ore prices trading near the lowest level since at least 2009 will probably remain under pressure and may even extend declines after Brazil’s Vale SA announced changes to production plans, according to Morgan Stanley.

The world’s biggest producer said on Monday that it would cut about 25 million metric tons of higher-cost supply from this month, while sticking to a full-year output target of 340 million tons.

The decisions are a recognition that the market is oversupplied this year and will probably remain in surplus in 2016, according to Executive Director Peter Poppinga.

“This will not lead to higher iron ore prices in the short term — it could even have the opposite effect,” Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in an e-mailed report. The changes by Vale won’t reduce supply, rather they will add more lower-cost material into the export market, the analysts said.

Benchmark prices are mired in a bear market as Vale and its main Australian competitors — Rio Tinto Group and BHP Billiton Ltd. — increase low-cost production even as demand stagnates in China, spurring a glut.

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Iron Ore’s Bear Market May Deepen as Clarksons Forecasts $40 – by Jasmine NgDavid Stringer(Bloomberg News – July 7, 2015)

http://www.bloomberg.com/

Iron ore will probably extend declines after falling back into a bear market on Monday as low-cost supplies from Australia and Brazil are set to expand further this half while demand stumbles in China.

Prices may drop toward $40 a metric ton, according to Clarksons Platou Securities Inc. A deepening slowdown in China’s steel industry and higher iron ore exports from the largest miners are weighing on prices, said Sanford C. Bernstein & Co.

Iron ore’s return to a bear market highlights that the same factors of surging supply and stalling demand growth, which dragged prices to a decade-low early April, remain at the forefront. Recent losses followed figures showing inventories in China rebounded, while exports in June from Australia’s Port Hedland were at a record. The Minerals Council of Australia on Tuesday defended local miners’ policy of adding output, saying cuts would be a failed strategy that would aid competitors.

“Momentum is clearly negative and that is going to be hard to reverse in the immediate short term,” Paul Gait, an analyst at Bernstein in London, said in an e-mailed response to questions. “The revealed preference of the miners is for volume over value, for tons ahead of price.”

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Iron ore drop, Vale start could make Fortescue Metals a marginal producer – by Amanda Saunders (Australian Financial Review – July 3, 2015)

http://www.afr.com/

Even as Fortescue Metals Group races to hammer down production costs, the leaner miner faces the prospect of becoming the marginal producer of the large iron ore players, once Brazil’s Vale brings its new mega expansion project online, analysts say.

Iron ore crashed spectacularly overnight on Thursday – falling 6 per cent to $US55.63 a tonne – its biggest one-day decline in a year. It snatched back much of the modest recovery made since hitting a record low of $US47 a tonne in early April.

UBS mining analyst Glyn Lawcock told AFR Weekend that “the concern the market has is that the all-in cash delivered price that FMG needs to be cash-neutral is ultimately going to be the dictator of where the long-term price settles”.

Fortescue could become the highest-cost of the large producers – Vale, Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton, and newcomers Roy Hill and Anglo American, he said.

“As more low-cost supply comes on, and high-cost supply is pushed out, ultimately the risk is that Fortescue becomes the most significant size marginal player.

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Vale Tumbles With Iron Ore Below $60 as Brazilian Stocks Advance – by Denyse Godoy (Bloomberg News – June 30, 2015)

http://www.bloomberg.com/

Vale SA, the world’s largest iron-ore miner, sank to a two-month low on concern that global supplies of the steelmaking ingredient are too high. The Ibovespa posted the best first half of any year since 2009.

Shares of Vale extended their 2015 plunge to 19 percent as Australia cut its price estimates for the commodity, saying the nation’s exports will surge. The raw material dropped below $60 a ton, paring this quarter’s gain to 16 percent.

The slump in iron ore sent a gauge of commodity shares in the MSCI Brazil to the only decline among 10 groups Tuesday. While the industry’s stock swings have abated this month, they reached the highest level since 2011 at the end of May amid a roller-coaster ride in the raw material.

“It’s hard to forecast now where the commodity is going,” Pedro Paulo Silveira, the chief economist at brokerage TOV Corretora, said in a phone interview from Sao Paulo. “Vale has fallen a lot because of prospects for iron ore.”

The stock led losses in the Ibovespa, which added 0.1 percent to 53,080.88 at the close of trading in Sao Paulo. Commodity companies account for about a quarter of the stock gauge.

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[Sudbury, Ontario] Global Lessons from a Hard-Rock Mining Town: Dr. John Gunn at TEDxLaurentianU

  Published on 28 Feb 2014 Dr. Gunn presents an inspiring talk on our northern mining town Sudbury. He educates us on our history of pollution, and it’s decline and the impact Sudbury’s smoke stack plays. He illustrates the link between clean air and clean water and further explains the impact and global lessons from …

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Nickel price expected to rise: Economist – by Carol Mulligan (Sudbury Star – June 26, 2015)

The Sudbury Star is the City of Greater Sudbury’s daily newspaper.

The low nickel prices that prompted First Nickel Inc. to halt underground ramp development and consider shuttering its Lockerby Mine are expected to increase, but not dramatically, by the end of the year, says an economist.

Nickel was selling for US $5.80 on the London Metal Exchange earlier this week, and Patricia Mohr is forecasting it could rise to a profitable $8.75 in 2016.

Mohr is vice-president of economics and commodity market specialist at Scotiabank. The below-$6 price of nickel isn’t a profitable level, although it might cover cash costs or production at Canadian mines because we have “fairly low-cost nickel mines in Canada,” said Mohr.

“But it’s not sufficient to cover full break-even costs including depreciation and so, it’s a low price for nickel.”

FNI president and chief executive officer Thomas Boehlert blamed the decisions his company was forced to make on nickel selling below $6 a pound.

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Vale Looks to Sell Up to 30% of Metals Unit in Possible IPO – by Juan Pablo Spinetto (Bloomberg News – June 24, 2015)

http://www.bloomberg.com/

Vale SA, the world’s largest nickel producer, is considering selling about 25 percent to 30 percent of its base metals business in an initial public offering.

Work on the transaction continues, although the Rio de Janeiro-based miner will only proceed if nickel and copper prices reach “appropriate” levels, Investor Relations Director Rogerio Nogueira said in Sao Paulo Wednesday.

“We have the vision of doing this IPO to create value,” he said. “It was never thought as a way of getting cash.”

Vale, whose iron-ore business has been buffeted by a 50 percent price collapse since late 2013, may hold the base metals offering in two tranches as it seeks to unlock value at a time of rising profit and output after years of operational setbacks. Vale hired Canadian law firm Stikeman Elliott LLP for the possible IPO, people with knowledge of the matter said earlier this month.

While Nogueira declined to give a valuation for the base metals business during his presentation, Chief Financial Officer Luciano Siani said in a Bloomberg Television interview in December that it may be worth $30 billion to $35 billion.

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The Potential Impact Of Easing Indonesian Nickel Export Restrictions On Vale – by Trefis Team (forbes Magazine – June 23, 2015)

http://www.forbes.com/

Vale is a diversified mining company and the world’s largest iron ore producer. Though iron ore sales account for a majority of the company’s revenues, Vale also has interests in the mining of base metals, particularly copper and nickel. Vale is among the world’s largest producers of nickel, and prices of the metal can have a significant impact upon the company’s stock price.

Nickel is mainly used in the production of stainless steel. With demand for stainless steel mainly correlated with industrial activity, prices of the metal have suffered due to weakness in Chinese economic growth.

However, there is a chance of a sharper fall in nickel prices, if the Indonesian government revokes a ban on unprocessed nickel exports instituted in 2014. The Indonesian government had banned unprocessed mineral exports in January, in order to boost domestic mineral processing capacity. Though the country relaxed restrictions on exports of copper, the ban on unprocessed nickel and aluminum exports still remains.

With the Indonesian government considering a relaxation of export restrictions on bauxite, which is the precursor for aluminum production, there is a chance that the Indonesian government may also consider relaxing restrictions on unprocessed nickel exports.

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Vale Said to Hire Canada’s Stikeman Elliott for Base Metals IPO – by Juan Pablo Spinetto and Scott Deveau (Bloomberg News – June 17, 2015)

http://www.bloomberg.com/

Vale SA, the world’s top nickel producer, hired Canadian law firm Stikeman Elliott LLP to help it prepare for a possible initial public offering of its base metals business, three people with knowledge of the appointment said.

The Rio de Janeiro-based company probably will choose bank advisers in the coming months as it considers the IPO, said the people, who asked not to be named because the matter is private. The sale is subject to a nickel-price recovery, they said.

In December, Vale told investors in New York that it was considering selling a minority stake in its base metals operations, the largest generator of revenue after iron ore, to boost cash. Vale forecasts increased profit and output from the operations, which is based on a 2006 takeover of Inco Ltd., after years of setbacks including strikes in Canada, design defects at Brazil plants and a New Caledonia acid spill.

Vale declined to comment on IPO advisers.

Michelle Di Rocco, a Stikeman Elliott spokeswoman, didn’t respond to e-mails and voice messages seeking comment. The Toronto-based firm also advised Vale in the Inco takeover.

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Iron to Tighten as China Buys More and Sells Less, Vale Says – by Juan Pablo Spinetto (Bloomberg News – June 10, 2015)

http://www.bloomberg.com/

The global iron-ore market is set to tighten in the second half of the year as China imports more and produces less, according to the biggest miner, Vale SA.

Chinese imports of the steel-making ingredient will increase with domestic production down by about 200 million metric tons after prices tumbled 60 percent from a 2013 peak, Vale Chief Executive Officer Murilo Ferreira said at a Rio de Janeiro conference organized by Fundacao Getulio Vargas.

“Several Chinese producers — a higher number than people realize — have already left the business,” Ferreira, 61, said Wednesday. “I think we will have a better second half in China than the first half in terms of steel.”

Since reaching a decade low in April amid supply expansions in Australia and Brazil, iron-ore prices have rallied 39 percent on prospects of a pickup in Chinese steel demand and as high-cost mines close. The benchmark rose 1.7 percent to $65.39 a dry ton on Wednesday, the highest since Jan. 23, according to an index compiled by Metal Bulletin.

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Ignorance pushed iron ore market into ‘dance of death’ – by Tess Ingram (Sydney Morning Herald – June 9, 2015)

http://www.smh.com.au/

Former Fortescue Metals Group chairman Gordon Toll says the heads of the world’s largest iron ore miners have exhibited “appalling ignorance of major economic market structures” and have created a global “debacle” that could last for decades.

Mr Toll, who now heads locally-listed magnetite hopeful Royal Resources, served as chairman of Fortescue from May 2005 to March 2007 while the company was in its development phase.

Adding his name to the list of prominent critics of the miners’ expansion strategies, Mr Toll said he was shocked shareholders of BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto, Vale and Fortescue had remained silent while their companies pressed ahead with expansion plans which would depress prices.

“The first thing is why are the shareholders not screaming and I think that’s part of the second thing which is both the executives of these companies and the shareholders are showing massive ignorance of major economics and market structures,” Mr Toll told Fairfax Media.

“I don’t believe Jimmy Wilson or Andrew Harding, any of those people, ever believed they were going to drive the iron ore price down to where they have driven it but that is because they do not understand major economics.”

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COLUMN-Big iron ore miners’ plan to displace everybody else losing steam – by Clyde Russell (Reuters U.S. – June 3, 2015)

http://www.reuters.com/

LAUNCESTON, Australia, June 3 (Reuters) – How well is the plan by big iron ore miners to displace high-cost iron ore from the seaborne and Chinese domestic markets going? Maybe just OK, certainly not great.

Much has been written about how the big three global iron ore miners will use their low-cost, high-output mines to muscle competitors out of the market, thus restoring the supply-demand balance and ultimately justifying the billions of dollars they spent boosting capacity well in excess of demand.

The problem for Brazil’s Vale and the Anglo-Australian pair of Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton <BHP Billiton> is that the signs are this isn’t working perhaps as well as they may have hoped.

Certainly Chinese trade numbers show that Australia in particular has increased market share in iron ore imports, but the momentum may be stalling.

In the first four months of the year, Chinese imports of the steel-making ingredient from Australia were 195.845 million tonnes, or 63.7 percent of the total 307.282 million tonnes.

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Keep Metal Prices Lower for Much Longer – by David Stringer (Bloomberg News – June 3, 2015)

http://www.bloomberg.com/

BHP Billiton Ltd. delivered a sombre warning to global commodity markets that oversupply is very much here to stay. Tumbling prices are creating a testing environment for commodity producers, while demand is slowing to more routine levels amid a transition in China’s economy away from investment-led growth, the world’s biggest mining company’s Chief Executive Officer Andrew Mackenzie said Wednesday.

“In many markets, recently installed low-cost supply can now be stretched to meet growing demand,” Mackenzie said in a speech in Canberra. “Incremental supply, induced during periods of higher prices, will take longer to absorb and this means over-supply may persist for some time.”

Expansion by the biggest iron ore producers, including BHP and Vale SA, will see a global surplus swell to 215 million tons in 2018 from 45 million this year, UBS Group AG estimates. Teck Resources Ltd. plans to idle six Canadian coal operations amid a slump in prices and demand.

“The speed at which prices have returned to long run levels for each commodity has varied as a function of the time taken for low cost supply to come to market,” Mackenzie said.

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NEWS RELEASE: VALE’S SAMANTHA ESPLEY HONOURED BY ENGINEERS CANADA

 

SUDBURY, June 3, 2015 – Vale is pleased to announce that Samantha Espley, General Manager of Mines & Mill Technical Services (Ontario Operations), received the 2015 Award for Support of Women in the Engineering Profession from Engineers Canada.

This national award was given to Samantha for her achievements as an engineer and significant contributions in supporting women in the industry. The presentation was made at the Engineers Canada Awards Gala on May 21st in Calgary.

“I am humbled and grateful to Engineers Canada for recognizing me in this way,” said Samantha. “I feel blessed to continue to enjoy such a fulfilling career in mining and I will continue my work to promote engineering and mining as an attractive career choice to the next generation of young Canadian women”.

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Vale may sell potash assets in Saskatchewan – by Rachelle Younglai and Niall McGee (Globe and Mail – May 28, 2015)

The Globe and Mail is Canada’s national newspaper with the second largest broadsheet circulation in the country. It has enormous influence on Canada’s political and business elite.

As Brazil’s Vale SA figures out what to do with its fertilizer business, the mining giant is thought to be testing the waters on a potential sale, according to people familiar with the matter.

In addition to potash mines in South America, the Brazilian mining company owns a big potash development project and slew of fertilizer concessions in Saskatchewan, the world’s biggest producer of potash – a crop nutrient.

“There has been a lot of chatter that Vale is possibly considering selling their fertilizer business. If you are preparing your assets for sale, you want to increase the value of your portfolio,” said Joel Jackson, an analyst with Bank of Montreal.

Vale, the world’s biggest iron ore supplier and a major producer of other metals, is under pressure to sell assets amid a nearly $20-billion (U.S.) expansion of its iron ore complex in Brazil. People familiar with the matter said it has been trying to gauge how much its fertilizer business could fetch.

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