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Stan Sudol Columns/Media References and Appearances

Ring of Fire: Miles to Go Before We Dig – by Stan Sudol

This column was published in the January 5 and 7 editions of the Sudbury Star:

http://www.thesudburystar.com/2013/01/05/accent–ring-of-fire—miles-to-go-before-we-dig

http://www.thesudburystar.com/2013/01/07/miles-before-we-dig

Intro

It may be a cliché, but over the past six months, how things have changed and how they’ve stayed the same in the Ring of Fire. There may be some ongoing activity or discussions behind the scenes, but without a doubt, the declining state of the global economy, First Nations issues and Ontario politics seem to have halted any progress on a varity of issues.

First let’s look at the fragile nature of the world economy. The U.S. is still struggling, Europe is worse, with skyrocketing unemployment rates in many countries and China’s past double-digit expansion is gone. It is estimated that their economy will “only” grow seven per cent this year.

The price of commodities and the value of resource companies have plummeted. Many mining projects are being put on hold or cancelled while layoff notices are being handed out. Funding for junior exploration companies – the source of future discoveries like the Ring of Fire – has become almost imposible to find putting many on life support.

The stock price of Cliffs Natural Resources has plummeted from US$100.00 per share a year and a half ago to a little under US$30.00 recently. Cliffs has publicly stated that they are looking for a partner to help develop their northern Ontario chromite deposits. Recently the company has put their Bloom Lake iron ore expansion project in Quebec’s Labrador Iron Trough on hold and stopped production at two of their U.S. iron ore mines.

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Boom bust cycle normal in mining industry [Jason Turnbull interviews mining analyst Stan Sudol] – CBC Radio Sudbury (November 1, 2012)

http://www.cbc.ca/pointsnorth/ Slumping nickel prices and a bit of slowdown on base metal prices have caused speculation that Vale is not interested in maintaining full operations in Sudbury. Points North’s Jason Turnbull interviews Toronto-base mining analyst Stan Sudol about the recent cutbacks by Vale at their Sudbury operations. Click here for the interview: http://www.cbc.ca/video/news/audioplayer.html?clipid=2299263418

Ontario’s New Mining Act: The Good, the Bad and the Very, Very Ugly – by Stan Sudol (November 6, 2012)

This speech was given at the Ontario Prospectors Association: 2012 Ontario Exploration & Geoscience Symposium in Sudbury Ontario, November 6, 2012.

Check Against Delivery

Intro

Good evening everyone. It’s always great to get back to my hometown. I was born and raised in Sudbury and even worked at Inco’s Clarabell Mill for one year before going off to college.

And I also spent one summer underground at the Frood-Stobie mine way back in 1980, digging ditches, helping the miners, and digging more ditches. Regardless of all that ditch digging, the Inco jobs ensured a lifelong interest with this fascinating industry.

I was on a recent site visit at Superior Copper’s Bachawana Bay properties – 70 kilometers north of Sault Ste. Marie – when I heard the terrific news that McGuinty had resigned. I almost wanted to kiss the chalcocite outcrop that CEO Judy Baker was showing both me and a reporter from the Northern Miner.

I think northern Ontario history will not be kind to McGuinty. His many green legacies – including the detested Far North Act – and his economic mismanagement have left this province a much poorer place. McGuinty’s resignation is a small glimmer of hope for the junior exploration sector which has seen a really tough year.

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[Sudbury mine] Closure part of global trend: Analyst – by Harold Carmichael (Sudbury Star – October 19, 2012)

The Sudbury Star is the City of Greater Sudbury’s daily newspaper.

Nickel analyst Stefan Ioannu of Haywood Securities in Toronto is not surprised by Vale’s decision Thursday to close the 100- year-old Frood Mine in Sudbury.

” You have deposits and greater depths right now,” he said. “The deeper you go, the more expensive it is to get to stuff. Maybe ( Vale) can squeeze a little more out if it sells at $10 (a pound), a little less at $7.”

Ioannu said the Frood decision is one of many being made across the globe right now by the mining industry. “One of the big things we have been seeing coming out of the majors is a focus,” he said. “They will be shutting some of their big projects and focusing on regular operations to cut costs. It’s an interesting shift.

“It’s very difficult for the big companies to justify developing things with the (nickel) price now.” Ioannu said while he sees nickel prices rising to US$10 a pound, they could bottom out at $6. The reason they will rebound, said the mining analyst, is that high-grade nickel pig iron deposits in Indonesia — which could be turned on and off quickly and flood the nickel markets — are mostly gone and only low grade ones remain.

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Good news: Vale’s Thompson smelter and refinery may stay open a year or two beyond 2015 – by John Barker (Thompson Citizen – Septmeber 7, 2012)

The Thompson Citizen, which was established in June 1960, covers the City of Thompson and Nickel Belt Region of Northern Manitoba. The city has a population of about 13,500 residents while the regional population is more than 40,000. editor@thompsoncitizen.net

Peter Poppinga, who less than a year ago replaced Tito Martins in Toronto as chief executive officer of Vale Canada and became executive director of base metals globally for Brazilian-based mining giant Vale, told company managers Sept. 6 “that every aspect of the base metals business is under review, including our Manitoba Operations, and we may face new challenges and new opportunities in the coming months as a result,” Lovro Paulic, general manager of smelting and refining, Don Wood, general manager of production services and Mark Scott, general manager of mining and milling, said in a jointly-issued letter from the three most senior managers in Manitoba Operations to employees here Sept. 7.

“The most pressing and immediate challenge before us is to reduce costs and increase efficiencies while continuing to strive for Zero Harm—these are complementary,” the trio said.

United Steelworkers Local 6166 President Murray Nychyporuk, elected to his second three-year term last spring, says the “news is not surprising” and the union recognizes the world nickel market has taken a serious downturn over the last year and Vale has to find a way to cut costs. Nychyporuk said the union would work with the company during the review process to protect their common interests.

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Vale says ‘no plans’ to shut down operations – by Carol Mulligan (Sudbury Star – August 20, 2012)

 The Sudbury Star is the City of Greater Sudbury’s daily newspaper.

As senior mining analyst at Salman Partners, an investment dealer, Raymond Goldie keeps a close eye on the nickel industry. But he’s finding it difficult to keep tabs on Vale, one of the world’s largest nickel producers.
 
That being said, Goldie is predicting Vale could be planning a production shutdown because of the low price of nickel. Nickel has fallen to below $7 a pound, something that could prompt other companies such as Xstrata Nickel and Norilsk to cease production for awhile as well, he said.
 
Vale spokeswoman Angie Robson said a planned maintenance shutdown is now underway at the company’s Greater Sudbury operations. Robson said the company has no other plans. “We don’t speculate on rumours, but there are no plans to shut down operations,” she said.
 
Goldie and other mining analysts who used to follow the former Inco Ltd. closely are finding it more difficult to do that now that it’s owned by the Brazil-based mining giant.

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Glenecore-Xstrata a possible Vale suitor? – by Harold Carmichael (Sudbury Star – August 18, 2012)

 The Sudbury Star is the City of Greater Sudbury’s daily newspaper.

Should Vale put its base metals division up for sale, there would likely be only one buyer with deep enough pockets – the soon-to-be-merged Xstrata and Glencore.
 
“If that merger goes through, the merged Xstrata/Glencore International plc would be a real huge entity,” mining analyst Stan Sudol said. “Certainly, they could afford to buy the base metal assets of Vale.
 
“It’s a merger the Sudbury Basin would welcome. There are enormous amounts of synergy that couldn’t be realized because of it being two entities. Ninety-five per cent of the area’s nickel operations would be unified.”
 
Six years ago, the former Inco and the former Falconbridge held merger discussions. If that had happened, most of Sudbury’s mining, milling and smelting operations would have been owned by one company.

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Will Vale sell [base metals divison]? – by Harold Carmichael (Sudbury Star – August 18, 2012)

 The Sudbury Star is the City of Greater Sudbury’s daily newspaper.

Six years after buying Inco Ltd. for $19.4 billion, speculation is growing that Brazil-based Vale may be considering unloading its base metals division, which includes nickel operations in Greater Sudbury.

Such a dramatic development can’t be ruled out, said Stan Sudol, a mining analyst who also operates the mining news website Republic of Mining.

Vale’s base metals division could be worth about US$30 billion, almost a third of Vale’s estimated $95-billion total market capitalization, said Sudol. Yet the base metals division may only contribute as little as 5% to the company’s profits.

That’s a scenario Vale executives in Brazil may not be inter-e sted in continuing much longer, especially if world nickel prices and demand continue to slump, he said.

“(Vale) might be saying, ‘This is a complicated business. We are dealing with underground mines. But our specialty is open pit.’ Then, there’s the fact that while Sudbury mining technology is among the best in the world, there’s a whole different culture (with Vale), as much of their business is open-pit mining versus underground mining.”

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[Ontario’s Ring of Fire] North’s Holy Grail: tapping a $1 trillion resource – by Mary Katherine Keown (Sudbury Star – August 11, 2012)

The Sudbury Star is the City of Greater Sudbury’s daily newspaper.

On a humid summery day — the kind of day that makes you feel like you must be living inside a sauna — you open the door to your refrigerator and reach for something to cool you from the inside out. If you count yourself among a growing number of stylish, quality-craving homeowners, yours is a stainless steel fridge. House-hunters and remodellers alike covet stainless steel appliances for their durability, timelessness and aesthetic quality. Industry experts estimate 40% of new appliance sales include “a stainless steel-type finish,” according to Dr. Steel on www.stainless-online.com.
 
Stainless steel appliances have been on the market for the ACCENT past two decades and show no signs of waning popularity. Fingerprints aside, designers recommend them as a solid investment with high resale value. The Atlantic ran a piece in February questioning the popularity of stainless steel. While the author, Megan McArdle, has some reservations, its appeal to domestic types is undeniable.
 
“As a status symbol, (such appliances) signify that: a) you (are) a serious cook, and b) you didn’t just go to Circuit City to get your appliances,” she writes. “In other words, stainless steel has become a status god. That’s why all those young couples on house-hunting shows adamantly shake their heads when they walk into an otherwise charming fixer-upper and say ‘No way. I want stainless.’ “

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The Ring of Fire: Politics and intrigue – by Stan Sudol (Sudbury Star – July 14, 2012)

The Sudbury Star is the City of Greater Sudbury’s daily newspaper.

Stan Sudol is a Toronto-based communications consultant, speechwriter and columnist who blogs at www.republicofmining.com. stan.sudol@republicofmining.com

On May 9, Cliffs Natural Resources announced the company was advancing its massive $3.2-billion chromite project in the isolated and infrastructure-challenged Ring of Fire region to the feasibility stage. Sudbury was selected as the best location for the proposed $1.8-billion smelter for a wide range of reasons, including rail, transportation, power supply and skilled workforce.

If you think that such a positive announcement should bring collective cheers across the North and an economically imploding southern Ontario, you would be wrong. The ensuing flurry of anguished and angry news releases from First Nations, environmental organizations, and some politicians was enough to make any reader despair that the Ring of Fire will ever be developed.

First, some essential background info before I continue: Discovered in 2007, the Ring of Fire mining camp, located 540 km northeast of Thunder Bay, in the James Bay Lowlands, will probably go down in history books as one of the most significant Canadian mineral finds of the past century. It is estimated that the chromite deposits are so large that we could be mining up there for the next hundred years and that the total mineral potential of the region — chromite, nickel, copper, PGMs, vanadium, gold — could easily exceed the legendary trillion-dollar Sudbury basin.

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Ontario’s Ring of Fire: Politics and Intrigue (Part One of Two) – Stan Sudol

Stan Sudol is a Toronto-based communications consultant, speechwriter and columnist who blogs at www.republicofmining.com  stan.sudol@republicofmining.com

This column was published in the Sudbury Star on July 14, 2012. http://www.thesudburystar.com/2012/07/14/the-ring-of-fire-politics-and-intrigue and posted on the Canadian Mining Journal website: http://www.canadianminingjournal.com/news/guest-perspective-politics-and-intrigue-in-the-ring-of-fire-part-one/1001537458/

On May 9th Cliffs Natural Resources announced that the company was advancing its massive $3.2 billion chromite project in the isolated and infrastructure-challenge Ring of Fire region to the feasibility stage. Sudbury was selected as the best location for the proposed $1.8 billion smelter for a wide range of reasons including rail, transportation, power supply and skilled workforce.

If you think that such a positive announcement should bring collective cheers across the north and an economically imploding southern Ontario, you would be wrong. The ensuing flurry of anguished and angry news releases from First Nations, environmental organizations, and some politicians was enough to make any reader despair that the Ring of Fire will ever be developed!

First some essential background info before I continue. Discovered in 2007, the Ring of Fire mining camp, located 540 kilometres northeast of Thunder Bay, in the James Bay lowlands, will probably go down in the history books as one of the most significant Canadian mineral finds of the past century. It is estimated that the chromite deposits are so large that we could be mining up there for the next hundred years and that the total mineral potential of the region – chromite, nickel, copper, PGMs, vanadium, gold – could easily exceed the legendary trillion-dollar Sudbury basin!

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Between rock face and hard place [Ring of Fire and First Nations] -by Maureen Nadin (Thunder Bay Chronicle-Journal – June 11, 2012)

The Thunder Bay Chronicle-Journal is the daily newspaper of Northwestern Ontario.

This is the fourth of a multi-part series looking at the mining sector of Northwestern Ontario and the Ring of Fire.
 
Republic of Mining blogger Stan Sudol keeps his finger on the pulse of the mining and prospecting communities. The journalist and mining strategist has gone on record to express his view that the potential offered by the Ring of Fire development is “a wonderful opportunity to alleviate poverty in First Nations communities.”

Although some would argue that it is impossible to fully alleviate poverty anywhere, Sudol’s sentiment is a noble, albeit lofty expression of the economic hope that the Ring of Fire has created for communities in the mineral-rich region.

Aboriginal people have traditionally worked and had a strong connection to the land, but the modern mining industry is multifaceted and highly technological. There is a diversity of skill sets required that vary with each phase of the operation and all stakeholders must work together to open the path to the rock face for aspiring workers.

And that requires not only strategic partnerships, but a holistic “big picture” approach as to how to prepare Aboriginal people to fill those jobs.

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Ontario moves to open up Far North with $5.1-billion chromite deal – by Tim Shufelt (National Post – May 10, 2012)

The National Post is Canada’s second largest national paper.

“It’s a very high-quality chromite, which is a very important strategic metal,”
said Stan Sudol, a communications consultant and blogger at republicofmining.com.
“There are no substitutes for it. And there are only three major countries in the
world that produce it: South Africa, Kazakhstan and India.” … The trillion-dollar
Sudbury Basin is by far Canada’s biggest resource discovered to date, having
yielded base metals for more than 100 years, Mr. Sudol said. (Financial Post)

The government of Ontario took a big step toward unearthing the geological treasures of the province’s Far North in announcing an investment to develop the first mine in the mineral-rich Ring of Fire.
 
Cliffs Natural Resources Inc. plans to invest $3.3-billion to establish a chromite mine west of James Bay and build a $1.8-billion smelter near Sudbury, the province said Wednesday.
 
And since the Ring of Fire is inaccessible by road or rail, hundreds of kilometres of new all-season road will be built to truck the ore south.
 
Improving access to Ontario’s northern expanses could lead to the discovery of additional base-metal deposits with immense economic potential.

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Outlook 2012: We’re a mining hotspot [Sudbury] – by Heather Campbell (Sudbury Star – March 29, 2012)

The Sudbury Star is the City of Greater Sudbury’s daily newspaper.

According to SAMSSA source, Stan Sudol, the demand for resources in developing
nations, like China, will continue to place upward pressure on commodity prices,
and Canada is the top country in the world for mining project development. It is
estimated that over the next 25 years, we will need to dig out of the ground as
many minerals as has consumed since the beginning of time.
(Stan Sudol, Mining Analysist)

The booming mining sector has the suppliers and service companies scrambling to keep up with the demand and opportunities.

Dick Destefano, Executive Director, Sudbury Area Mining Supply and Service Association (SAMSSA), said the group has switched gears from connecting his members with work to helping them meet the overwhelming demand.

The organization represents the interests of 115 members providing the largest concentration of expertise in mining supply/products and services from within the most recognized centre of excellence worldwide. For the past nine years SAMSSA has been monitoring the mining sector and Destefano predicts that we are not even close to finishing the super cycle.

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Outlook 2012: Merger [Xstrata/Glencore] creates world’s largest resource company – by Jenn Lamothe (Sudbury Star – March 30, 2012)

The Sudbury Star is the City of Greater Sudbury’s daily newspaper.

“But, let’s remember, Sudbury still has enormous geological potential, is
polymetallic — copper, platinum group metals, cobalt and others — in addition
to nickel, has established mining infrastructure, skilled workforce and is
one of the top, politically risk-free and mine-friendly jurisdictions in a
resource-starved world.” (Stan Sudol – Mining Analyst/Columnist/Blogger)

Though the talks of a merger between two enormous mining giants has been going on for many years in secret, it wasn’t until Feb. 7 that mining company Xstrata and commodities dealer Glencore agreed to a $90B US merger that will create the world’s fourth largest natural resources company.

The combined company will control a chain of businesses from mining to refining, storage and shipping of basic commodities like coal, copper and corn.

Under the terms of the deal, Xstrata shareholders would receive 2.8 Glencore shares for each of their shares. That represents a premium of 15.2% based on recent closing prices. Glencore already had a 34% stake in Xstrata.

The merger is projected to yield cost savings of $500 million in the first full year, primarily in marketing. It will also give the combined company greater leverage to borrow money for its operations — a key advantage in the high-volume, low-margin commodities business.

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