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The widening discounts dragging down the price of Canadian oil are providing a glimpse at what the future looks like if new pipelines like Keystone XL aren’t built.
The discounts were adding up this week to about $30 to $40 for a Canadian oil sands barrel relative to the price it would have fetched in world markets.
It’s the outcome of rising production from Canada’s oil sands and the Bakken tight oil field in North Dakota and too little pipeline space to move it to refiners, causing oil to be backed up in the U.S. Midwest.
The surprise is that existing pipelines are filling up well before the 2015/1016 time frame, when they were widely expected expected to hit their capacity.
“We are at the wrong end of multiple discounts,” said Mike Tims, chairman of Peters & Co., the Calgary-based energy investment dealer.