Western energy vs. eastern industry: a manufactured debate – by Anne Golden and Glen Hodgson (Globe and Mail – May 25, 2012)

The Globe and Mail is Canada’s national newspaper with the second largest broadsheet circulation in the country. It has enormous influence on Canada’s political and business elite.

Anne Golden is President and Chief Executive Officer of The Conference Board of Canada. Glen Hodgson is Senior Vice-President and Chief Economist of The Conference Board of Canada.

In recent weeks there has been a recurring debate on whether the economic success being felt in much of Western Canada is hurting the rest of the country. The debate has centred on the oil sands and whether they have caused so-called “Dutch disease”, specifically in the manufacturing sector based largely in Central Canada.

The argument that good news for oil sands is bad news for the rest of the Canada is not supported by evidence.

Contrary to widespread opinion, the oil sands are not a significant share of the Canadian economy, and are not crowding out other sectors. Total energy and mining production as a share of Canadian GDP is actually smaller today that it was in recent decades – 4.6 per cent of GDP today, versus 5.1 per cent in 1990 and 5.9 per cent in 1980.

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Native groups unhappy with pipeline reversal plan – by John Spears (Toronto Star – May 24, 2012)

The Toronto Star, has the largest circulation in Canada. The paper has an enormous impact on federal and Ontario politics as well as shaping public opinion.

LONDON, ONT.— The impacts of reversing the flow of an Enbridge oil pipeline between Sarnia and Hamilton are “minimal and manageable,” the company’s lawyer told a National Energy Board hearing Wednesday.

But aboriginal groups disagreed – both inside and outside the hearings at a London hotel.

Traditionalist members of the Six Nations reserve near Brantford forced the hearings to adjourn for several hours just as they got going Wednesday morning, as they complained the hearings were illegitimate and undemocratic.

Once the hearings had resumed in the afternoon, Chief Christopher Plain of the Aamjiwnaang First Nation near Sarnia complained that his members “have not been consulted in a meaningful way” in the energy board process.

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Thomas Mulcair’s ill-conceived war on the West – by Gillian Steward (Toronto Star – May 22, 2012)

The Toronto Star, has the largest circulation in Canada. The paper has an enormous impact on federal and Ontario politics as well as shaping public opinion.

CALGARY—NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair might as well have declared war on the West. That’s the way it sounded from this end of the country when a couple of weeks ago he told a CBC radio program that something needs to be done about rapid oilsands development.
 
According to Mulcair, it has artificially inflated the Canadian dollar and thereby delivered a bruising blow to central Canada’s export-dependent manufacturing sector.
 
Mulcair might as well have said that the western resource-based economy is the enemy of the eastern-based manufacturing sector and must be stamped out at all costs.
 
Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s team and the western premiers were quick to defend the West’s right to profit from its resource wealth. But the ensuing war of words created such a fog it obscured much more fundamental issues.

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Mulcair should drop the ‘Dutch disease’ rhetoric – by Jeffrey Simpson (Globe and Mail – May 19, 2012)

The Globe and Mail is Canada’s national newspaper with the second largest broadsheet circulation in the country. It has enormous influence on Canada’s political and business elite.

NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair is right with one part of his critique of Western Canada’s oil-driven economy, and wrong about all the rest. On balance, it’s a poor batting average for someone who, some day, hopes to become prime minister.

Mr. Mulcair has been chastising the oil industry, and the governments that regulate it, for not making the industry pay the full cost of emissions that create greenhouse gas emissions.

Even Exxon-Mobil in Houston (and the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers) thinks there should be a price on carbon – through a tax or, less preferably, a market-trading system for emissions. Alberta has such a tax, but it is set way too low to be very effective. So Mr. Mulcair is correct that pollution costs should be factored into the product’s final cost. Otherwise, all of society loses from the pollution.

To say, however, that Alberta and Canada are acting like Nigeria in regulating the industry is political nonsense.

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The age of extreme oil: ‘This used to be a forest?’ – by Arno Kopecky (Globe and Mail – May 19, 2012)

The Globe and Mail is Canada’s national newspaper with the second largest broadsheet circulation in the country. It has enormous influence on Canada’s political and business elite.

One grey Thursday at the end of April, a plane touched down in Fort McMurray, Alta., carrying four Achuar Indians from the Peruvian Amazon. They had flown 8,000 kilometres from the rain forest to beseech Talisman Energy Inc., the Calgary-based oil and gas conglomerate, to stop drilling in their territory. Talisman’s annual general meeting was coming up, and the Achuar were invited to state their case to chief executive officer John Manzoni in front of the company’s shareholders.

But first, they wanted to see a Canadian oil patch for themselves, and meet the aboriginal people who lived there.
 
Their host in Fort McMurray was Gitzikomin Deranger, Gitz to his friends – a 6-foot-4 Dene-Blackfoot activist who lives in a comfortably cluttered duplex with his parents and a revolving assortment of relatives. Many of them crowded in to meet the Achuar, who relaxed on Mr. Deranger’s leather couch with surprising ease for people who live in palm huts. He had welcomed them to Alberta with a smudge – having set a small pile of sage to smoulder in a miniature cast-iron pan, he fanned smoke over his guests with an eagle feather.
 
“Did you kill the bird to get it?” asked Peas Peas Ayui (PAY-us PAY-us AY-wee), the group’s leader, a taciturn man in his mid-40s with gold-capped upper teeth.

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Mulcair digs in for long debate on ‘Dutch disease’ – by Gloria Galloway (Globe and Mail – May 19, 2012)

The Globe and Mail is Canada’s national newspaper with the second largest broadsheet circulation in the country. It has enormous influence on Canada’s political and business elite.

Thomas Mulcair says it was never his intent to spar with the leaders of the Western provinces as he blames Alberta’s oil sands for the loss of hundreds of thousands of jobs in Canada’s other economic sectors.

“I have far too much respect for provincial premiers or for provincial politicians, having been one myself for so many years, to ever want to be interpreted as trying to dismiss them,” the Leader of the federal New Democrats, who was once a provincial cabinet minister in Quebec, said on Friday in an interview with The Globe and Mail.

“And if that is the way it was interpreted, of course,” he said, “I regret it.”

But Mr. Mulcair continues to press his belief that allowing development of the oil sands to proceed without demanding a greater price for the toll on the environment is driving up the dollar and hurting a wide range of industries including manufacturing, fishing and forestry. New Democrats say that without the oil companies paying the true cost of environmental remediation, their profits are unrealistically high and that is driving up the dollar.

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St. John’s refuelled 20 years after the cod died – by John Spears (Toronto Star – May 19, 2012)

The Toronto Star, has the largest circulation in Canada. The paper has an enormous impact on federal and Ontario politics as well as shaping public opinion.

ST. JOHN’S, NL—Moya Cahill lives in St. John’s but her business takes her half-way round the globe – and she has her eye on the other half. An engineer and naval architect by trade, Cahill owns one firm providing engineering and project management services based in Qatar.

With business partner Jacques Guigné, she’s also working full time on a second firm that’s developed unique acoustic-imaging technology for offshore industries probing beneath the seafloor.

Cahill’s ventures are one example of the new breed of outward-looking business growing up in a brash new capital that’s reaping the fruits of an unprecedented resource boom.

As Memorial University economist Wade Locke argues, Newfoundland is now Canada’s biggest petro-province, with a high proportion of its provincial revenue coming from oil (about 40 per cent) than Alberta, at about 30 per cent. Newfoundlanders’ personal incomes have shot above the national average.

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Pipelines to prosperity? – by Madhavi Acharya-Tom Yew (Toronto Star – May 19, 2012)

The Toronto Star, has the largest circulation in Canada. The paper has an enormous impact on federal and Ontario politics as well as shaping public opinion.

For most Canadians, the 700,000 km of crude oil and natural gas pipelines that criss-cross the country are out-of-sight and out-of-mind. Until the massive energy infrastructure intersects with international politics, the economy and environmental activism.

Projects like Keystone XL, Enbridge’s Line 9, Northern Gateway bristle with controversy (despite U.S. presidential candidate Mitt Romney’s pledge Friday to approve Keystone on his first day in office).

But the pipelines that carry millions of barrels of oil and millions of cubic feet of natural gas could transport Canada itself into the ranks of the world’s energy super powers.

But only if we move beyond our single biggest customer, the U.S., and begin supplying energy to the rest of the world – particularly energy-gobbling emerging markets, soon.

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Reviving Arctic oil rush, Ottawa to auction rights in massive area – by Nathan Vanderklippe (Globe and Mail – May 17, 2012)

The Globe and Mail is Canada’s national newspaper with the second largest broadsheet circulation in the country. It has enormous influence on Canada’s political and business elite.

CALGARY— Ottawa has placed 905,000 hectares of the northern offshore up for bids, clearing the way for energy companies to snap up exploration rights for an area half the size of Lake Ontario. The scale of the offer indicates eagerness in the oil patch to drill for new finds in Canada’s northern waters less than two years after such plans were put on hold following the BP spill in the Gulf of Mexico and a major Arctic drilling safety review.

The Arctic exploration auction resumes as the Harper government is promoting greater development of the country’s resources. It has taken steps to speed regulatory approvals for major energy projects such as the proposed Northern Gateway pipeline, promising to limit the ability of environmental groups and other opponents to block or delay new developments.

The prospect of further northern drilling fits squarely with that mandate, said Jason MacDonald, spokesman for John Duncan, Minister of Aboriginal Affairs and Northern Development Canada, which oversees the northern land auction.

“The bid call reflects the potential that we see for resource development,” he said.

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Methane hydrate technology fuels a new energy regime – by Neil Reynolds (Globe and Mail – May 16, 2012)

The Globe and Mail is Canada’s national newspaper with the second largest broadsheet circulation in the country. It has enormous influence on Canada’s political and business elite.

In a joint announcement two weeks ago, the United States and Japan (along with ConocoPhillips, the U.S.-based multinational oil company) announced the world’s first successful field trial (in Alaska) of a technology that uses carbon dioxide to free natural gas from methane hydrates – the globally abundant hunks of porous ice that trap huge amounts of natural gas in deposits, onshore and offshore, around the world. It’s a neat feat. You use CO2, which isn’t wanted, to produce natural gas, which is. But it’s more than neat – much more.

Methane hydrates constitute the world’s No. 1 reservoir of fossil fuel. Ubiquitous along vast stretches of Earth’s continental shelves, they hold enough natural gas to fuel the world for a thousand years – and beyond. Who says so? Using the most conservative of assumptions, the U.S. Geological and Geophysical Service says so.

The U.S. now produces 21 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of natural gas a year. But it possesses 330,000 tcf of natural gas in its methane hydrate resource – theoretically enough to supply the country for 3,000 years (give or take). Using less conservative numbers (for example, a methane hydrate resource of 670,000 tcf), the U.S. is good to go for 6,000 years (give or take).

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Is Canada grappling with Dutch Disease? – by Barrie McKenna (Globe and Mail – May 16, 2012)

The Globe and Mail is Canada’s national newspaper with the second largest broadsheet circulation in the country. It has enormous influence on Canada’s political and business elite.

Conventional wisdom says that Canada is fighting a crippling bout of Dutch Disease. Canada’s petro-infused currency, which has risen 55 per cent against the U.S. dollar in the past decade, continues to linger around parity with the greenback. That is clobbering exports, making Canadian auto plants uncompetitive and hammering the manufacturing heartland of Ontario and Quebec – or so the thinking goes.
 
But the conventional wisdom is wrong, according to three researchers who will publish a study Wednesday that largely debunks the Dutch Disease theory, which has become a frequent talking point amid rising tensions between the oil-rich West and battered factories of the East.
 
Several key manufacturing industries often linked to the phenomenon show no symptoms at all of currency damage, including autos, food, aerospace and heavy industry, according to the report, Dutch Disease or Failure to Compete?, being released Wednesday.

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Don’t blame the Dutch – by Ryan W. Lijdsman (National Post – May 16, 2012)

The National Post is Canada’s second largest national paper.

Most Canadians are probably more familiar with Dutch elm disease than the similarly named “Dutch disease,” so when NDP leader Thomas Mulcair diagnosed Canada’s economy as suffering from the ailment it made headlines. According to Mr. Mulcair, “In six years since the Conservatives have arrived, we’ve lost 500,000 good-paying manufacturing jobs” because of a high petro-dollar. But is his diagnosis correct?

Dutch disease describes an ailment that the Netherlands contracted in the 1960s, when its broad economy faltered as it became a major exporter of natural gas. The currency became overvalued and the economy suffered from deindustrialization directly linked to the loss of exports and an increase in cheaper imports. Since then, the phenomenon has been discovered in other petroleumbased economies, such as Venezuela and several West African nations.

A superficial comparison of the Canadian economy and Dutch-diseased economies does show similarities, but not a more substantive look focusing on Dutch disease’s two major components: a high currency caused by an increase in natural resource exports and a directly linked decline in manufacturing.

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North Dakota’s oil-rich Bakken region: boom, busts and trouble – by Richard Warnica (Maclean’s Magazine – May 21, 2012)

 Maclean’s is the largest circulation weekly news magazine in Canada, reporting on Canadian issues such as politics, pop culture, and current events.

Cross-border crime is only one of the issues affecting ‘the Fort McMurray of the U.S.’s north’

The strip clubs in Williston, N.D., are the rowdiest that Tatiana, an exotic dancer who has performed in Las Vegas and New York, has ever seen. Oil workers coming off the nearby rigs pack the city’s two clubs, Whispers and Heartbreakers, every night. They smell like work. They wear dirty T-shirts. They fall asleep face first on the bar. And then there are the prostitutes. Tatiana, who asked that her real name not be used, noticed them wandering though the crowd looking for customers on her first night in North Dakota. “They’re not in there to tip the dancers,” she says with a laugh.
 
Williston is the heart of Bakken oil country, the Fort McMurray of the U.S.’s north, for all the good, and bad, that brings. There are at least 3.1 billion barrels of recoverable oil trapped in the Bakken shale, a teardrop-shaped formation spread between North Dakota, eastern Montana and Saskatchewan, and likely many billions more. In recent years, new technology and high prices have made that oil both easier to get at and more valuable to sell. Today the race to pump it out—via a complex process known as hydraulic fracturing or “fracking”—is running at an Olympic pace.
 
As a result, North Dakota’s economy is the hottest in the U.S. Unemployment there was just three per cent in March, the lowest in the country. In neighbouring Montana, where oil exploration has been far more modest, the jobless rate stands at six per cent, well shy of the national average of nine per cent.

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Ottawa’s industrial policy divides Canada against itself – by Lawrence Martin (Globe and Mail – May 15, 2012)

The Globe and Mail is Canada’s national newspaper with the second largest broadsheet circulation in the country. It has enormous influence on Canada’s political and business elite.

In the decades prior to 2000, Canada made progress in moving away from being an economy of resource extraction. By that year, as labour economist Jim Stanford has pointed out in an analysis for the Centre for Policy Alternatives, well over half of Canada’s exports consisted of an increasingly sophisticated portfolio of value-added products in areas such as automotive assembly, telecommunications, aerospace technology and more.

But in the past decade, the clock has been turned back. Because of a boom in the oil and gas sector and a range of other factors, the economy has reverted toward being a staples-driven enterprise. “In July, 2011, unprocessed and semi-processed resource exports accounted for two-thirds of Canada’s total exports, the highest in decades,” Mr. Stanford wrote. “Compare that to 1999, when finished goods made up almost 60 per cent of our exports.”
 
That’s quite a change. A tilt, to be sure, that fits the old cliché about Canadians being hewers of wood and drawers of water. Our fur-trading legends, Radisson and Groseilliers, would no doubt heartily approve. But didn’t someone say the way to go in the 21st century is the knowledge economy?

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The end of thought? [Jeff Rubin: The End of Growth] – by Philip Cross (National Post – May 11, 2012)

The National Post is Canada’s second largest national paper.

Philip Cross is the former chief economic ­analyst at Statistics Canada.

Jeff Rubin forgets that knowledge, not cheap oil, brings growth
 
Jeff Rubin is the kind of guy I want to like. He made a remark in 2005 about sheiks and mullahs controlling oil supplies that provoked his handlers at CIBC, where he was chief economist for 20 years, to send him on a course to heighten his sensitivity and political correctness. If my former employers at Statistics Canada had been nearly as skittish, I could have spent much of my 36 years there taking courses. Anyway, the course apparently had its desired effect on Rubin, as his new book on The End of Growth is as politically correct as it gets when it comes to decrying our addiction to autos and suburbs, our indifference to climate change, and ultimately our grubby materialism.

This book is an extension of his previous work, in which he predicted high oil prices were here to stay, and would fundamentally alter how and where we live and work. In this book, he extends this thesis to claim that permanently high oil prices will permanently cripple economic growth. The book notes that this may not be all bad, since the end of growth would reduce greenhouse gas emissions, although I think for most people that would not take the sting out of being unemployed.

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