Indonesia surprised the mining world in January putting into effect an outright ban on nickel ore exports.
After a relatively subdued initial reaction on nickel markets – no-one thought the Asian nation would go through with the ban and when it did, the expectation was that the rules would be water down substantially – the price of the steelmaking raw material is now up 32% in 2014.
Indonesia accounted for around a fifth of global supply at an estimated 400,000 tonnes of contained metal so the potential was there for a big impact on the price.
But record inventories around the globe (hitting 285,000 tonnes in March), massive stockpiling by China’s nickel pig iron producers ahead of the ban, and years of growing mine supply (11% per year since 2009 to 2 million tonnes), kept the price near financial crisis levels by the end of January.
Traders only really entered panic mode when supply from the world’s largest producer Norilsk was also put in danger due to the possibility of sanctions against the Russian company over the crisis in Ukraine.