Originally published in February,1997
Livio Di Matteo is Professor of Economics at Lakehead University in Thunder Bay, Ontario. Visit his new Economics Blog “Northern Economist” at http://ldimatte.shawwebspace.ca/
These figures suggest that a province of northern Ontario would be as viable economically as Saskatchewan, Manitoba or any other of the Atlantic provinces and should be able to
generate comparable levels of government expenditure and revenue. – Livio Di Matteo
While the North would definitely have been economically viable as a separate province at the turn of the century, that does not mean it still would be today. Modern northern Ontario has seen a decline in its traditional natural resource and transportation employment base. Since the mid-twentieth century, the north’s economy and population have grown at a much slower rate than the south and the north has possessed a chronically higher unemployment rate. Since the 1960s, the north’s economy has been supported by a substantial expansion of government spending to the point where the broader public sector accounts for nearly one-third of the labour force.
As well there has been a decline in the importance of natural resource revenues to the Ontario government to the point to where they account for barely one percent of provincial revenue. Combined with the higher per capita cost of providing government services in the north, the implication is that the last twenty-five years have seen a reversal of the traditional fiscal flows from the north to the south.
Nevertheless, interesting questions are what an economy of northern Ontario would look like in terms of size and whether it would provide the necessary tax base for our current level of government services. Unfortunately, estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) are not provided on a regional basis. However, using data from the 1991 census, it is possible to construct a crude approximation to the region’s GDP using household income data which yields a regional output of nearly 21 billion dollars. With a population of about 870,000, the economy of northern Ontario would be at the middle ranks of Canada’s provinces. Northern Ontario’s economy would be bigger than any one of the Atlantic provinces, slightly smaller than Manitoba’s and about the same size as Saskatchewan.