Mining companies and refineries are producing more nickel than at any time in history, expanding a glut that threatens to reverse this year’s rally.
Production will exceed demand by 45,000 metric tons, a 73 percent jump from 2011, Barclays Capital estimates. That’s equal to 46 percent of stockpiles tracked by the London Metal Exchange. Refined output will rise 12 percent, the most in at least eight years, according to Morgan Stanley. Prices, which rose 7.8 percent to $20,170 a ton this year, may fall as much as 13 percent to $17,630 a ton by Dec. 31, the median of 11 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg shows.
Metals have returned to a bull market from a 22 percent slump last year on an improving outlook for global growth with manufacturing in the U.S. capping the biggest two-month increase in more than two years in January and unexpectedly gaining in China. With new supply expected from Australia to Madagascar to Brazil, consumption still won’t expand fast enough to absorb the extra metal. Most markets for stainless steel, accounting for 76 percent of nickel demand, remain “depressed,” Deutsche Bank AG said in a report Feb. 15.