With 2014 quickly approaching, all eyes in the market appear to be turned east to Indonesia.
As of the beginning of December, the Indonesian government has signalled that it would proceed with putting into effect a ban on unprocessed mineral ores.
Roskill’s nickel analyst, Thomas Hohne, answers some of the major questions related to the ban and its effect on the nickel market, and shares some of Roskill’s views of what other factors will be driving the nickel market in the years to come. What should we expect to happen come January 2014?
Shipments are set to be barred from January 12th onwards as proposals for a phased introduction of the ban have been discussed, but not adopted, as of yet. With Indonesia’s earnings from ore exports in the range of US$10 billion in 2013, much of which would evaporate overnight, pressure for some intermediate solution will remain. Because of this, however, any temporary solution is likely to be reached after the imposition of the ban, rather than before. Moreover, Indonesian officials have already indicated that even as the legislation will go ahead, implementation of the ban may allow for some amendments in practice.