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Latin America Mining

Fool’s Gold: The limits of tying aid to mining companies – by Marco Chown Oved (Toronto Star – December 15, 2014)

The Toronto Star has the largest circulation in Canada. The paper has an enormous impact on federal and Ontario politics as well as shaping public opinion.

Barrick Gold’s massive mine in Peru has sped up community development, including schools and a hospital. So why are so many locals still jobless and poor?

QUIRUVILCA, PERU—Towering atop a pedestal in the main square, a golden statue of a miner with his headlamp and jackhammer gleams in the morning sun, a monument to the mineral wealth on which this town was built.

The Quiruvilca mine opened almost 100 years ago, and its blackened wooden structures still loom on the mountainside above the rooftops. But a century of mining copper, silver, zinc and gold brought little development to this remote settlement, nestled in a steep valley more than 4,000 metres up in the Peruvian Andes. The roads weren’t paved; many people didn’t have electricity.

Nine years ago, another mine opened, operated by Toronto-based Barrick Gold, the world’s biggest gold mining company. It has paid hundreds of millions of dollars in taxes and royalties and the new-found wealth is visible everywhere. The local government has brought power to virtually everyone in town and is now hooking up remote villages. Through an infrastructure-for-taxes program, Barrick has constructed roads, a police college, a hospital and a school. A new highway has cut travel time to the coast from eight hours to 3.5.

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Slowdown in China Bruises Economy in Latin America – by Eduardo Porter (New York Times – December 16, 2014)

http://www.nytimes.com/

SANTIAGO, Chile — Few people are as intensely worried about the slowing Chinese economy as Latin Americans. Not only does China buy nearly 40 percent of Chile’s copper, but its once-insatiable demand helped push copper prices from $1 to $4 a pound.

Meanwhile, Beijing plowed billions into Peruvian mines and fisheries and spent billions more buying soybeans from Argentina and Brazil. And it propped up the Venezuelan government to the tune of $50 billion in loans, to be paid in shipments of oil.

China’s voracious hunger for Latin America’s raw materials fueled the region’s most prosperous decade since the 1970s. It filled government coffers and helped halve the region’s poverty rate.

That era is over. For policy makers gathered here last week for the International Monetary Fund’s conference on challenges to Latin America’s prosperity, there seemed to be no more clear and present danger than China’s slowdown.

“The commodity boom allowed governments and companies to avoid hard choices,” Andrés Velasco, Chile’s finance minister from 2006 to 2010, told me. “For goodness’ sake even Argentina grew by 5 to 6 percent per year for almost a decade.”

Copper is back under $3. As commodity prices continue to swoon, driven in large part by China’s weaker demand, the going will get much tougher.

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Chilean mining firms nervous about impending labor reforms – by Fabian Cambero (Reuters U.S. – December 22, 2014)

http://www.reuters.com/

SANTIAGO – Dec 22 (Reuters) – Mining firms in Chile, the world’s top copper producer, say the government has left them in the dark over a new labor bill to be delivered to Congress this month, undermining the confidence of investors grappling with low metal prices.

President Michelle Bachelet’s socialist government says it wants to modernize collective contract negotiations and strengthen unions, though it has been vague on details. Senators close to the government have said it could seek to limit mining companies’ ability to replace workers during strikes.

The labor reform is part of a battery of measures aimed at reducing Chile’s gaping wealth gap, and Bachelet faces a tricky balancing act as mining accounts for half of Chile’s exports.

Mining companies fret the reforms will jack up labor costs and increase the power of unions in a country where strikes are relatively uncommon.

“It’s not the moment to implement a radical labor reform because we have had too many changes and each change creates uncertainty,” said Diego Hernandez, president of Antofagasta Minerals.

State-run Codelco and private firms like BHP Billiton, Anglo American, Glencore, and Antofagasta are all juggling weak copper prices, due to slacker demand from China, and surging costs.

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Vale SA: Overview of the world’s largest iron ore company – by Annie Gilroy (Market Realist – December 17, 2014)

http://marketrealist.com/

Operations

Vale SA (VALE) is a Brazilian multinational diversified metals and mining company. It is the world’s largest producer of iron ore and iron ore pellets and the world’s second-largest producer of nickel. It also produces manganese ore, ferroalloys, coal, copper, PGMs (platinum group metals), gold, silver, cobalt, potash, phosphates, and other fertilizer nutrients.

Vale has mineral exploration operations in 11 countries around the globe. It operates infrastructure systems in Brazil and other regions of the world, including railroads, maritime terminals, and ports that are integrated with its mining operations.

Its main operations are divided into four main lines of business:

  • Bulk materials – iron ore and pellets, manganese, ferroalloys, and coal
  • Base metals – nickel, cobalt, copper, PGMs and other precious metals
  • Fertilizer nutrients – potash, phosphate, and nitrogen fertilizers
  • Logistics infrastructure – railroads, maritime terminals, distribution centers, and ports
  • We’ll discuss these in detail in subsequent parts of this series.

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UPDATE 1-Miner Sherritt says U.S. exports possible if Cuba embargo lifts – by Narottam Medhora (Reuters U.S. – December 17, 2014)

http://www.reuters.com/

Dec 17 (Reuters) – The United States move to normalize relations with Cuba could pave the way for Sherritt International Corp to export nickel and cobalt to one of the biggest markets in the world, the miner’s Chief Executive David Pathe told Reuters.

Sherritt shares jumped as much as 36 percent on Wednesday after President Barack Obama moved to thaw a five-decade freeze in relations between the two countries and said he would speak to the U.S. Congress about lifting the U.S. embargo on Cuba.
Toronto-based Sherritt is the largest independent natural resources company in Cuba and operates the Moa nickel mine in the eastern part of the Caribbean island state.

Due to the Cuban origin of its nickel and cobalt, the company is currently unable export to the United States, even though the metals are refined in western Canada.

“If the embargo were to be lifted, we could export some of that nickel and cobalt into the U.S. market, which is obviously one of the biggest markets in the world,” CEO Pathe said in an interview.

“It would also give us access to U.S. suppliers for mining equipment and supplies and services for our oil and gas industries.”

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Venezuela restarts nickel output at asset taken over from Anglo – by Silvia Antonioli (Reuters U.K. December 17, 2014)

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/

LONDON, Dec (Shanghai: 600875.SS – news) 17 (Reuters) – Venezuela has restarted production from the Loma de Niquel ferronickel asset it took from mining giant Anglo American (LSE: AAL.L – news) in 2012 after cancelling its licenses, data from an industry body showed this week.

Information on Venezuela is patchy but the International Nickel Study Group (INSG) numbers indicated that the country produced 2,700 tonnes of nickel in the first 10 months of this year, after producing nothing in 2013.

Loma de Niquel is Venezuela’s sole nickel producing asset. At full capacity it would produce almost 1 percent of the world’s nickel output.

Diversified miner Anglo had a 91.4 percent stake in Loma de Niquel until 2012, when the Venezuelan government under late president Hugo Chavez cancelled 13 of its concessions and refused to renew three others, forcing the company to abandon its operations in the country.

Nickel production from Venezuela fell from 8,100 tonnes in 2012 to nothing in 2013. In 2011 it had produced over 14,000 tonnes.

The data shows that production resumed at a rate of 200 tonnes per month in January and increased to 300 tonnes per month from April.

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Lima marchers, experts want climate deal to respect rights – by Megan Rowling (Reuters India – December 11, 2014)

http://in.reuters.com/

LIMA (Thomson Reuters Foundation) – Rights experts and civil society groups issued an open letter on Wednesday to ministers attending U.N. climate talks in Lima, urging governments to enshrine “human rights for all” in the new global climate deal due to be agreed at the end of 2015.

At the same time, thousands of Peruvians and indigenous people from the Andean and Amazon regions marched shoulder to shoulder with climate activists from around the world on the traffic-choked streets of Lima.

They called for urgent action to tackle climate change and the environmental problems affecting communities dependent on natural resources for their survival.

Danitza, whose Quechua name Pilpintu means butterfly, from Peru’s south-central Andean region of Ayacucho, said people must take care of the earth, not least for the benefit of their children. “For the next generations, we should look after our water, the earth, our food,” she said, carrying her baby dressed in traditional clothes.

Many at the march, around 15,000-strong according to organisers, shouted and waved banners demanding clean water, 100 percent renewable energy, and protection of their rights threatened by extractive mining and major development projects, such as hydro-electric dams.

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‘Plan B’ puts Vale back in the driving seat – at a cost – by Samantha Pearson (Financial Times – December 2, 2014)

http://www.ft.com/home/us

For Vale, the world’s largest producer of iron ore, its location in Brazil has always been both its greatest strength and its biggest challenge.

On the one hand, its proximity to high-grade iron ore mines such as Carajás in the north of the country has turned it into a world leader in the industry and Brazil’s most international company.

Between January and October this year, iron ore ranked as Brazil’s second-biggest export just behind soyabeans, accounting for about 12 per cent of total shipments in value terms.

However, on the other hand, with its biggest mines more than 10,000 miles away from the key Chinese market, its geographical position has been its Achilles heel in its battle with rivals BHP Billiton and the Rio Tinto Group, located in Australia, much closer to Asia.

While demand from China is slowing, the country still accounts for 49.6 per cent of Vale’s total iron ore sales and Asia as a whole represents 65.4 per cent, according to the company’s third-quarter results.

As such, finding ways to reduce the logistics costs of these vast delivery routes has always been one of Vale’s top priorities. As the global commodity supercycle ends, pushing down iron ore prices worldwide, these cuts have become even more important.

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Vale base-metals IPO could prove to be a Bay Street bonanza – by Euan Rocha and John Tilak (Globe and Mail – December 4, 2014)

The Globe and Mail is Canada’s national newspaper with the second largest broadsheet circulation in the country. It has enormous influence on Canada’s political and business elite.

TORONTO — Reuters – Vale to consider base metals IPO only if nickel rallies – by Sarah McFarlane and Eric Onstad (Reuters U.K. – December 5, 2014)

LONDON – (Reuters) – A possible public listing of a stake in the base metals unit of Brazil’s Vale SA (VALE5.SA) hinges on a rally in nickel prices of around 20 percent, its chief financial officer said on Friday.

“We want to see nickel prices above $20,000 per tonne in order to consider such an option, I would say well above,” Luciano Siani said in an interview with Reuters.

Earlier this week Vale, the world’s largest producer of iron ore, said it was considering an initial public offering of 30 to 40 percent of its base metals division, because the unit was undervalued by the market. Benchmark nickel CMNI3 on the London Metal Exchange closed at $16,825 a tonne on Friday after a roller-coaster ride this year.

Siani said that if nickel prices reached $21,000 per tonne and copper $6,600 per tonne next year, the company would meet the lower end of its 2015 target for the base metals unit of $4 billion to $6 billion in earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA).

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Brazil’s Vale mulling IPO for part of base metals business – sources – by Nicole Mordant and Euan Rocha (Reuters U.S. – December 1, 2014)

http://www.reuters.com/

VANCOUVER/TORONTO – Dec 1 (Reuters) – Brazil’s Vale SA is considering listing part of its global base metals business, two sources with knowledge of the matter said on Monday, as the miner looks to fund capital projects amid a collapse in iron ore prices.

The sources, who asked not to be named as they have not been authorized to discuss the matter publicly, said the world’s top iron ore producer is likely to retain a majority interest in the new entity if it proceeds with the plan.

Vale could outline the plan to list a new entity in Toronto and London as early as Tuesday at an investor day event being held in New York, said one of the sources.

The event at the New York Stock Exchange will be webcast. The second source said there had been significant discussion inside Vale about listing the base metals assets, which have fared better than its iron ore business due to steadier prices.

A Vale spokeswoman in Brazil could not be reached for comment after hours.

Vale’s iron ore business contributed 62 percent of the company’s gross revenue in the third quarter. Outside of iron ore, Vale’s global asset portfolio includes nickel assets in Canada, Indonesia and New Caledonia, coal mines in Australia and Mozambique as well as copper projects in Canada, Brazil and Zambia.

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Globe-Trotting Vale CEO Faces Wall Street as Iron Plunges – by Juan Pablo Spinetto (Bloomberg News – December 1, 2014)

http://www.bloomberg.com/

Vale SA’s chief executive officer says he travels so much that the mining company’s executive jet is among the most flown in Bombardier Inc.’s fleet this year.

“I like to visit all our operations at least once a year but normally I go more than that,” Murilo Ferreira said in an interview at the company’s Rio de Janeiro headquarters on Nov. 26. “I travel a lot, a lot, a lot,” he said in a weary tone.

Ferreira, 61, will board his Global Express XRS jet to visit investors in New York and London this week, adding to the more than 240,000 kilometers (149,000 miles) flown in the first 10 months of 2014. On the agenda? How the world’s largest iron-ore producer will adapt to a collapse in the price of the commodity that prompted analysts to have the bleakest opinions about the stock since at least 1999.

Vale is producing iron ore at a record pace and its base metals unit — which for years experienced delays, accidents and stoppages — is finally starting to contribute to profits. Yet expanding global supply at a time of slowing demand in China, the largest consumer of metals, has pushed down prices of the steelmaking raw material to the lowest in more than five years and made Vale the worst performing major mining stock.

The reaction from Vale, as with other mining companies, has been to cut costs, put lower-return expansions on hold and focus on its most profitable businesses. The company probably will announce tomorrow a $10.4 billion budget for next year excluding research and development expenses, the lowest since 2009 and 25 percent below last year’s approved capital expenditures, according to the average of nine analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg News.

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‘Deep Down Dark,’ by Héctor Tobar – by Mac McClelland (New York Times – November 20, 2014)

http://www.nytimes.com/

In 1987, a toddler who became known to the world as Baby Jessica fell into an abandoned well in a backyard in Midland, Tex., where she was stuck for 58 hours. Watching the coverage as a 7-year-old, I couldn’t get an answer from the newscasters or my parents that explained why it was taking so long for so many smart grown-ups to solve such a simple problem. Even now, I find it hard to believe that the human race can be outmatched by such a primitive adversary as a hole in the ground.

Crises of faith are the dominant theme of Héctor Tobar’s “Deep Down Dark,” the story of 33 men who were buried for 69 days in a collapsed Chilean mine in 2010. With his exclusive access to the survivors, Tobar, a Pulitzer Prize-­winning journalist, graphically recounts the quandaries that beset the men as well as their families — camped out at the mine’s entrance — the officials and rescue crews as a worldwide audience watched. There is weeping.

There is acceptance of death. There is the miners’ terror, every time the rescue drill stops, that they have been given up for dead. “The silence just destroyed us,” one man told Tobar. “Without a positive sign, your faith collapses. Because faith isn’t totally blind.” Some men find a stronger connection to God (“Omar realizes that the improbable fact of their survival also carries a hint of the divine. To be alive in this hole, against all odds, speaks to Omar of the existence of a higher power with some sort of plan for these still-living men”). Others struggle with whether to pray or to succumb to the darkness and lie down to die.

The hierarchy that gave the miners order in their workday routine is destroyed almost instantaneously. The shift supervisor buckles under the realities of the collapse and abdicates his authority.

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Iron-Ore Giant Vale Sees Rebound as Glut Squeezes Mines – by Juan Pablo Spinetto and Peter Millard (Bloomberg News – November 27, 2014)

 http://www.bloomberg.com/

Iron-ore prices are poised to rebound from five-year lows as Asian infrastructure demand improves and high-cost mines close, according to the top producer Vale SA. (VALE5)

The steelmaking raw material, which slumped 49 percent this year to $68.49 a dry metric ton yesterday, will return to an average range of $85 to $90 next year, Chief Executive Officer Murilo Ferreira said in an interview. Prices jumped 2.2 percent today, the most in seven weeks. Vale isn’t considering slowing its expansions because of slumping prices and is pressing ahead with the $19.7 billion Serra Sul S11D mine and logistics project, the industry’s biggest, he said.

“There was a lot of volatility in prices this year and the market is undershooting at the moment and this will bring about a correction,” Ferreira, 61, said at the company’s headquarters in Rio de Janeiro yesterday. “This correction will come through the closure of many inefficient miners of high cost and poor quality iron ore.”

Vale, Rio Tinto Group (RIO) and BHP Billiton Ltd. are maintaining their expansions betting that higher-cost producers will be squeezed out of the market. The price plunge, including a 20 percent drop in the past three months, is prompting speculation China will close inefficient mines, while Cliffs Natural Resources Inc. is considering shutting a mine in Canada.

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FEATURE-Peru crackdown on illegal gold leads to new smuggling routes – by Mitra Taj (Reuters India – November 25, 2014)

http://in.reuters.com/

Nov 25 (Reuters) – A crackdown on illegal gold mining in Peru has spawned new smuggling routes through its porous border with Bolivia with some gangs using human mules, armored cars and light aircraft to evade capture.

The gold is ghosted across jungles, rainforest and Lake Titicaca on the mountainous border, and is then sold to dealers who process the precious metal for export out of Bolivia’s capital La Paz, Peruvian officials say.

Bolivia, a relatively small gold producer which has commissioned no new large mines in 2014, officially exported 24 tonnes of gold between January and August, data from Bolivia’s statistics agency shows.

That is six times the amount of gold Bolivia’s miners produced in the first seven months of 2014 and more than three times the total amount it exported in all of 2013, illustrating how Peruvian gold is being diverted. Nearly all of Bolivia’s exported gold was shipped to the United States, government data shows.

Peruvian President Ollanta Humala launched a clampdown late last year to tackle a decade-long boom in wildcat gold mining that has destroyed swathes of Peru’s Amazon forest and laced its rivers with mercury.

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Go where it is darkest: When company, country, currency and commodity risk collide! – by Aswath Damodaran (Musings on Markets – November 20, 2014)

http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.ca/

Aswath Damodaran is a Professor of Finance at the Stern School of Business at NYU.

You learn valuation (and find out how much you don’t know) by valuing businesses and companies, not by talking, reading or ruminating about doing valuation. That said, it is natural to want to value companies with profit-making histories and a well-established business models in mature markets. You will have an easier time building valuation models and you will arrive at more precise estimates of value, but not only will you learn little about valuation in the process, it is also unlikely that you will find immense bargains, because the same qualities that made this company easy to value for you also make it easier to value for others, and more importantly, easier to price.

I believe that your biggest payoff is in valuing companies where there is uncertainty about the future, because that is where people are most likely to abandon valuation first principles and go with the herd. So, if you are a long-term investor interested in finding bargains, my advice to you is to go where it is darkest, where micro and macro uncertainty swirl around every input and where every estimate seems like a stab in the dark. I will not claim that this is easy or comes naturally to anyone, but I have a few coping mechanisms that work for me, which I describe in this paper.

While I enjoy valuing companies with uncertain futures, there are cases where my serenity about valuation is disturbed by the coming together of multiple uncertainties, piling on and feeding of each other to create a maelstrom. In this post, I want to focus on two companies, one Brazilian (Vale) and one Russian (Lukoil), where bad corporate governance, a spike in country risk, currency weakness and plunging commodity prices have conspired to devastating effect on their stock prices.

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