Brent Cook’s take on how scary it looks out there, and why it might eventually and slowly get better.
The Rant. But then metal prices began to decline, economies slow, and profits slip away. What went wrong this time Dad? Will mining boom again? Don’t hold your breath kid. It’s bleak out there and we have a 10-year super commodity bull to work off this time.
I think what ultimately killed the recent boom was the slow realization by investors that most mining companies really couldn’t make money. Those savvy investors got the commodity boom and gold price right, and bought into the thesis that mining company profits would soar with the rising metal prices. The share prices did soar, for a while, but…
Instead of profits they got production costs rising in tandem with metal prices; capex blowouts; companies issuing equity and taking on debt whenever they could to cover the multitude of thoughtless acquisitions (supported by dubious, but 43-101 sanctioned, technical reports and financial projections) all piled on top of an eat-what-you-kill banking/brokerage community fronted by inexperienced or compromised analysts faced with the tall task of feeding the global frenzy of very short-term hedge fund gamblers with no skin in the game, trading stocks based on microsecond blips up until the shine wore off and, well, here we are today — busted again.