Vale SA (VALE5), Brazil’s largest exporter, said further local currency depreciation could counter cost rises and a slowdown in Chinese iron-ore demand as it seeks to regain market share from Rio Tinto Group and BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP).
The real, the worst-performing emerging-market currency in the past three months, probably will weaken to about 2.40 from 2.15 per U.S. dollar, bolstering Brazil’s competitiveness, said Jose Carlos Martins, Vale’s executive director for ferrous and strategy. China’s iron-ore and steel demand growth is set to slow to about 5 percent from 10 percent in the first five months of the year, he said.
“The Brazilian currency will devalue further,” Martins, 63, said in a June 14 interview at the company’s Rio de Janeiro headquarters. “The slowdown in China is negative, devaluation is positive because not only our costs in dollars will be reduced but also investments will be lower.”
Vale is seeking to return to profit growth and boost investor confidence by cutting costs, selling assets and focusing on the iron-ore business, its most lucrative unit. The company, the worst-performing major mining stock this year, posted first-quarter profit that surpassed analysts’ expectations for the first time in eight quarters.
The real lost 7.8 percent against the dollar in the past three months through yesterday to the weakest level in four years as faltering economic growth and speculation the U.S. Federal Reserve will pare back monetary stimulus lures money away from Latin America’s biggest economy.