International Media Resource Articles – Page 813

South African gold output continues its decline – where will it end? – by Lawrence Williams (Mineweb.com – August 9, 2013)

August 9, 2013

http://www.mineweb.com/

Statistics South Africa has just released its latest figures on the country’s metals and mineral output and they don’t make for happy reading with gold and platinum still on the decline.

LONDON (MINEWEB) – For South Africa, the latest figures from the country’s government statistical department, make fairly dismal reading, particularly with respect to its once word-dominant gold mining sector. The June figures, released yesterday, showed .that gold production continues to fall year on year – it was down 14% on that for June 2012 – and is now only the country’s fourth most important mined metal by value, having been overtaken by iron ore. Coal remains the most important metal or mineral by sales value, with platinum second, but the latter too is showing a year on year production decline.

According to the report the country’s overall mining production decreased by 6.2% year-on-year in June 2013. The largest negative growth rates were recorded by ‘other’ metallic minerals (-38.0%), diamonds (-22.9%), PGMs (-18.9%) and gold (-14.1%). The main contributors though to the overall 6.2% decrease were platinum group metals (contributing -4.6 percentage points) and gold (contributing -2.3 percentage points). Iron ore (contributing +2.0 percentage points) was the most significant positive contributor.

In value terms, the latest figures released are from May when overall mineral sales decreased by 8.5% year-on-year. The largest negative growth rates were recorded for gold (-42.6%), nickel (-20.0%) and ‘other’ metallic minerals (-15.5%). The major contributor to the 8.5% overall decrease was gold (contributing -10.0 percentage points).

COLUMN-Petroleum nationalism fades as super-cycle cools – by John Kemp (Reuters U.S. – August 9, 2013)

August 9, 2013

http://www.reuters.com/

Aug 9 (Reuters) – The balance of power between host countries and petroleum companies has shifted decisively as a result of the shale revolution and the push into deepwater oil and gas fields off the coast of Latin America and Africa.

The first decade of the 21st century was dominated by talk about increasing “resource nationalism” as governments demanded a greater share of the revenues from natural resources located on their territory.

But in the past three years, resource nationalism has disappeared from the agenda. Rather than trying to impose tougher terms on oil and gas companies, most countries are now competing to attract investment by offering reductions in royalties and lower tax rates.

Countries as diverse as the United Kingdom, Argentina, Ukraine and Poland want to attract explorers and developers to exploit shale deposits. And countries along the east and west coasts of Africa, as well as Latin America, are all vying to attract spending on offshore oil and gas discoveries.

Faced with so many competing opportunities, oil and gas companies are pushing for a better bargain.

Vale Says China Proving Pessimists Wrong on Steel Output – by Juan Pablo Spinetto (Bloomberg News – August 8, 2013)

August 9, 2013

http://www.bloomberg.com/

Vale SA (VALE), the biggest iron-ore producer, forecast a 10 percent increase in steel output this year in China, the world’s largest steelmaker. China probably will produce 780 million metric tons of steel this year compared with 683 million tons two years ago, underpinning a favorable view on the world’s largest emerging market, Chief Executive Officer Murilo Ferreira said today.

“China has once more proved the pessimists wrong,” Ferreira said during a conference call to discuss quarterly earnings. “Our view related to China continues positive.”

The shares of Vale and major rivals BHP Billiton Plc and Rio Tinto Plc (RIO) rallied today after Chinese imports climbed to the highest in 14 months and an iron-ore index reached a three-month high. The Rio de Janeiro-based company’s shares are down 27 percent this year after a slowdown in commodities demand and rising costs crimped miners’ earnings.

After tumbling 15 percent in the second quarter, iron-ore prices entered a bull market on July 26 after China replenished inventories and boosted steel output. In a presentation on its website today, Vale said a sharp drop in steel inventories in recent months opens the door to greater consumption growth.

Daniel Yergin: China’s Big Commodity Chill – by Daniel Yergin (Wall Street Journal – August 8, 2013)

August 9, 2013

http://online.wsj.com/home-page

With the end of the supercycle, copper prices have dropped 30% from their 2011 peak, and iron ore is down 32%.

Though it was summertime, a tinge of ice was in the June air at this year’s St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. “There is no magic wand we can wave,” said Russian President Vladimir Putin, acknowledging the abrupt drop in Russia’s growth rate. “Prices for our main exports rose fast” for many years, he told the forum, but now “the situation has changed. There are no magic solutions.”

What is giving Russia and many other countries the shivers is the China Chill that is the result of the slowing Chinese economy. It means a recalibration for the world’s exporters, who have come to count on vigorous Chinese demand. It will be a particular challenge for commodity exporters. Over the past decade, they have been the great beneficiaries of the commodity “supercycle”—the combination of accelerating demand and rising commodity prices that have delivered GDP growth. With China’s slowing, the supercycle is over, meaning tough choices ahead.

The supercycle began a decade ago, in the middle of 2003. China had already reported two decades of 10% annual economic growth. In 2000, its growth began to speed up, fueled by a tilt toward heavy industry. The rapid pace of industrialization and urbanization led to accelerating demand for copper, iron ore and other commodities.

BHP’s CEO Sees U.S. Shale Expansion as Mineral Demand Grows – by Elisabeth Behrmann (Bloomberg News – August 7, 2013)

August 9, 2013

http://www.bloomberg.com/

BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP), the world’s biggest mining company, signaled it will expand in the shale oil and gas industry in the U.S., forecasting global commodity demand will jump 75 percent over the next 15 years.

“It’s my intention to make us hugely proficient, if not one of the leaders in the shale gas and oil business,” Andrew Mackenzie, chief executive officer of the Melbourne-based company, said today in an interview. “Which means if there are opportunities elsewhere we’ll be able to consider them with a lot of precision and interest.”

China, the biggest consumer of metals and energy, will continue to fuel demand for commodities as 250 million people move into cities, said Mackenzie, 56, who succeeded Marius Kloppers in May. BHP spent $20 billion in 2011 on shale assets in the U.S., joining rivals including Exxon Mobil Corp. and China Petrochemical Corp. in seeking to tap surging energy demand that’s driving an industrial revival.

BHP slipped 2.0 percent to A$34.90 at the close of trading in Sydney. It’s dropped 5.9 percent this year.

Premier Li Keqiang is driving reform of the Chinese economy in a bid to maintain growth while reining in financial risks and controlling local government debt.

COLUMN-China commodity surge more about stockpiling than consumption – by Clyde Russell (Reuters India – August 8, 2013)

August 8, 2013

http://in.reuters.com/

Clyde Russell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.

LAUNCESTON, Australia, Aug 8 (Reuters) – Will record imports of crude oil, iron ore and soybeans in July force a re-think of the consensus view that the China-led commodity boom is largely over, or is this just a one-month blip that can be dismissed?

Even the most bullish of analysts are likely to have been surprised by the strength in the July numbers, which stand in stark contrast to the last few months of gradually weakening economic indicators in the world’s largest commodity consumer.

Ultimately there are two basic explanations for the increase in commodity imports. Either demand has risen, or is expected to rise in the next few months, or stockpiles are being built, or a combination of the two.

Different dynamics exist for different commodities, so it’s worth looking at the breakdown. Crude oil imports rose to 26.11 million tonnes in July, a 17.8 percent leap from June and at 6.15 million barrels per day (bpd), the highest on record.

The surge in July was enough to turn the year-to-date number positive, with imports for the first seven months now 1.4 percent higher than the same period in 2012, where as at the end of June they were 1.4 percent weaker.

Potash Corp. Says Uralkali-Belarus Dispute Won’t Last – by Christopher Donville (Bloomberg News – August 8, 2013)

August 8, 2013

http://www.bloomberg.com/

Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc., the largest North American producer of its namesake fertilizer, said it doesn’t expect a dispute between two producers in the former Soviet Union to last and that forecasts of a price slump are overdone.

Chief Executive Officer Bill Doyle said yesterday the duration of the disagreement between Russia’s OAO Uralkali and its Belarusian rival will be “shorter rather than longer.”

The comments were his first since Uralkali last week quit Belarusian Potash Co., a marketing venture with Belaruskali. Shares of potash producers around the world plunged after the Russian producer said it will start selling the crop nutrient freely in the market for the first time in eight years.

“Logic tends to prevail,” Doyle said in a interview broadcast live on the company’s website. “I don’t find too many people who self-destruct intentionally.”

COLUMN-U.S. cracks apart London’s commodity market omerta – by John Kemp (Reuters U.S. – August 8, 2013)

August 8, 2013

http://www.reuters.com/

John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.

Aug 8 (Reuters) – “See no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil” might well have been the motto for Britain’s commodity market regulators in recent years.

In too many instances, light-touch self-regulation by the exchanges, overseen by the Financial Services Authority (FSA), now reincarnated as the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), has degenerated into ineffective or no regulation.

But the cosy relationship among brokers, exchanges and official regulators in London is being blown apart by more aggressive oversight from the United States.

On July 23, the Senate Banking Committee put a spotlight on the physical trading operations of the major commodity-dealing banks with a hearing on whether they should be allowed to control power plants, warehouses and oil refineries. Prodded by the committee and U.S. banking regulators, JPMorgan has indicated it will reduce its presence in physical trading.

UPDATE 2-Vale profit dives on FX charge; cost-cutting continues – by Jeb Blount (Reuters U.S. – August 7, 2013)

August 8, 2013

http://www.reuters.com/

RIO DE JANEIRO, Aug 7 (Reuters) – Brazilian miner Vale SA said on Wednesday its second-quarter profit plunged after the company recorded a surprise $2.78 billion in foreign exchange losses on currency derivatives and debt, one of its worst bottom-line results in a decade.

In the three months ending June 30, net income fell 84 percent to $424 million, compared with a profit of $2.6 billion in the year-ago quarter, Vale said in a statement. The result was below market expectations. The average estimate of 18 analysts surveyed by Reuters was for profit to fall 7.63 percent to $2.46 billion.

Vale said the losses resulted from extraordinary, one-time, non-cash, financial charges that do not reflect its improved operational results. The Rio de Janeiro-based company is the world’s largest iron ore producer, No. 2 nickel miner, and a major producer of copper and fertilizers.

While a stronger dollar led to financial losses and lower profit, it also helped Chief Executive Murilo Ferreira to cut $736 million from the cost of salaries, research, equipment, construction and other goods and services.

Africa’s potash pioneers hope to thrive even if price drops – by Clara Ferreira-Marques and Aaron Maasho (Reuters U.K. – August 7, 2013)

August 8, 2013

http://uk.reuters.com/

LONDON/ADDIS ABABA, Aug 7 (Reuters) – Africa’s nascent potash industry, often enjoying low costs and shallow deposits while standing to benefit from fast growth in local demand, expects to withstand an expected drop in the crop nutrient’s prices better than emerging rivals.

The collapse last week of one of two global potash cartels is expected to take about 25 percent off prices, prompting questions over the future of projects such as BHP Billiton’s $14 billion Jansen and the K+S Legacy mine – both in Canada. Shares of small explorers and miners have been battered and financing, already tough, has become tougher.

But companies exploring Africa’s emerging potash regions – the Republic of Congo to the west and Ethopia and Eritrea to the east – say a price drop could benefit those with lower costs and high ore grades, if it means output cuts in established mining regions.

Lower prices could also increase demand for potash in emerging markets and notably in Africa, where food consumption patterns are changing as population growth and increased urbanisation alter diets and boost demand for grain.

ANALYSIS-Commodity funds on track for big launch year in uncertain market – by Barani Krishnan (Reuters India – August 6, 2013)

August 7, 2013

http://in.reuters.com/

NEW YORK, Aug 6 (Reuters) – An ex-Glencore (GLEN.L) oil trader and a veteran grains merchant with futures broker R.J. O’Brien are among those behind the largest number of commodity fund launches in 3 years despite investor worries the multi-year rally in those markets is over.

A dozen hedge funds trading raw materials derivatives on discretion were launched in the first six months of this year, the same as in the whole of 2012, data from London-based research house Preqin showed. In 2011, only seven of such funds took off, the smallest number in 5 years.

The new funds are led by managers who are convinced they can be outliers in one of the toughest commodity markets in years. The funds typically begin trading with a few million dollars of the managers’ own money and cash from family and friends, before seeking outside capital.

The launches coincide with talk the commodities “supercycle” of the past decade has been thwarted by the slowing of China’s phenomenal growth.

Three bidders out as Rio faces lackluster Canadian sale: sources – by Anjuli Davies and Clara Ferreira-Marques (Reuters U.S. – August 6, 2013)

August 7, 2013

http://www.reuters.com/

LONDON – (Reuters) – Three big-name bidders for Rio Tinto’s (RIO.L) majority stake in Canada’s largest iron ore producer are now out of the running, sources familiar with the talks said on Tuesday, after offers came in well below the mining group’s targets.

The sources said private equity firm Apollo, which had been working with Canadian pension fund CPPIB, rival Blackstone (BX.N) and commodity trader and miner Glencore (GLEN.L) were no longer in the race after a second round of bids last month. The low offers, at a time when dozens of mining assets are for sale and demand for steelmaking commodities is uncertain, raise questions over the future of a sale that could still take months to tie up – should Rio decide to push ahead.

Rio has a handful of assets on the block as it battles to cut a $19 billion debt burden and meet cost cutting targets. Like other miners seeking to divest unwanted activities, however, it has found buyers unwilling to pay up and in June was forced to scrap the sale of its $1.3 billion diamond business, 15 months after it was first announced.

Rio appointed banks to sell its 59 percent stake in Iron Ore Company of Canada (IOC) earlier this year after deciding to focus its iron ore efforts on assets in Australia’s Pilbara region, where the world’s second-largest iron ore producer has lower costs and higher grades.

Chinese copper demand could catch short-sellers by surprise – by Eric Onstad (Reuters U.S. – August 5, 2013)

August 7, 2013

http://www.reuters.com/

LONDON, Aug 5 (Reuters) – Gloom over weaker economic growth in China has led some investors to miss signs of robust underlying copper demand, which may wrong-foot those betting on a further slide in prices.

Benchmark prices in copper, viewed by many investors as a proxy for global economic health, hit the lowest levels in nearly three years at $6,602 a tonne in late June.

The price on the London Metal Exchange (LME) slid 21 percent from a peak this year in February, mainly due to worries about China, which accounts for 40 percent of copper demand. It has since rebounded modestly to trade just under $7,000 a tonne.

Despite China’s weak factory data and a credit crunch, spending on the power grid and other areas has meant copper consumption is fairly buoyant in the world’s biggest metals consuming nation.

China’s apparent copper demand, after adjusting for changes in stocks, surged over 20 percent in the second quarter, Barclays analyst Gayle Berry said.

Zimbabwe to Seize Mines While Compensating Banks – by Franz Wild (Bloomberg News – August 6, 2013)

August 6, 2013

http://www.bloomberg.com/

President Robert Mugabe’s government plans to seize control of foreign-owned mines without paying for them as part of a program to accumulate $7 billion of assets following his July 31 election victory, a minister said.

The government will compensate bank owners as it takes control of their companies, Saviour Kasukuwere, the minister in charge of the program to compel foreign companies to cede 51 percent of their assets to black investors or the government, said in an interview in Harare, the capital, today. His comments echo a suggestion made by Mugabe earlier this year.

“When it comes to natural resources, Zimbabwe will not pay for her resources,” Kasukuwere said. “If they don’t want to follow the law that’s their problem.” Non-compliant mine owners risk losing their licenses, he said.

Anglo American Platinum Ltd. (AMS), Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd. (IMP), Barclays Plc (BARC) and Standard Chartered Plc (STAN) are among companies that operate in the country. Other industries may have to yield smaller stakes to black owners, Kasukuwere said. Metals and minerals, including platinum and gold, accounted for 71 percent, or $719.9 million, in exports in the first four months of this year, the state-controlled Herald newspaper said, citing the finance ministry.

Despite gloom, prices for commodities China consumes are up – by Clyde Russell (Reuters India – August 6, 2013)

August 6, 2013

http://in.reuters.com/

Clyde Russell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own

LAUNCESTON, Australia, Aug 6 (Reuters) – It’s not hard to find bearish commentary on the outlook for China’s commodity demand, but every so often a little bit of information contrarian to the prevailing market views comes along.

Such a snippet is the latest China Commodity Index compiled by ANZ Banking Group, which shows the weighted average price for a basket of commodities imported by China rose to a three-month high last week.

The index gained 0.6 percent in the week ended Aug. 2, with only industrial metals detracting from the increase. It’s 0.4 percent higher than three months ago, but 2.7 percent below the level a year earlier.

Although it doesn’t have a long history, the ANZ index is useful as it tracks 22 major commodities and is weighted to reflect China’s consumption. The idea that prices of commodities most commonly used in the world’s largest consumer are at a three-month high appears at odds with other recent evidence that economic growth is stalling.

The rise in the official Purchasing Managers’ Index to 50.3 in July from 50.1 in June has been about the only significant recent Chinese economic data that has surprised on the upside.