LAUNCESTON, Australia, Feb 20 (Reuters) – Gold bulls have been tempted out of hiding by bullion’s strong start to the year, but the basis for optimism looks unsteady and largely hostage to what happens in China and India.
Spot gold has gained 8.8 percent so far this year to end Feb. 19 at $1,311.32 an ounce, recovering almost a quarter of its 28-percent loss in 2013.
The World Gold Council (WGC), which represents producers, is unsurprisingly upbeat, with Marcus Grubb, the managing director for investment, saying 2014 is going to be “much better” for gold investment and returns will be positive. Notwithstanding that the council’s job is to portray gold in a positive light, it’s worth looking at why it thinks this is the case.
It basically comes down to three factors, ongoing strong demand from China, a recovery in Indian imports as the government relaxes restrictions and an improvement in investment demand, reversing 2013’s huge outflows from exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
China became the world’s top gold consumer last year, overtaking India, with demand rising 32 percent to 1,065.8 tonnes, according to the council’s Gold Demand Trends report on Feb. 18.