LAUNCESTON, Australia – The new year has started positively for Asian coal, with prices rallying from a 5-1/2 year low, Chinese imports jumping to the highest in 11 months and renewed merger and acquisition interest.
While these are undoubtedly welcome developments for a sector that has witnessed four years of falling prices, there are still serious questions as to whether these swallows really do indicate a summer of good fortune ahead.
The spot price of thermal coal at Australia’s Newcastle port, an Asian benchmark, rose to $62.91 a tonne in the week ended Jan. 16, up 3 percent from $61.04 the prior week, which was the lowest since April 2009.
The obvious caveat here is that prices are still some way below the breakeven point for many miners in top exporters Australia and Indonesia, and it will take weeks of sustained gains to bring the sector as a whole back into the black.
Chinese imports were 27.22 million tonnes in December, the highest since January last year, again a positive sign but not enough to mask that imports for 2014 as a whole were down 10.9 percent to 291 million tonnes, the first annual drop in a decade.