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China’s leaders are positioning the country for a new era of lower, single-digit growth led more by consumer spending. That reshuffles the lineup of suppliers to the world’s second-largest economy and appears set to push Canadian commodities producers to the margins.
“The commodities super cycle – I don’t know if it’s over, but it’s not looking as good as it used to and it’s going to hurt a major part of our economy,” said Yuen Pau Woo, president and CEO of the Vancouver-based Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada. “We did less badly out of the global recession of 2008-09 on the back of Chinese demand for commodities. That honeymoon is over.”
As demand for resources moderates, Mr. Woo warns that Canada needs to strike a trade agreement with China and better promote its banks, automotive sector and other products that don’t depend on construction.
China’s leaders have been warning its companies for much of the past decade about their over-reliance on infrastructure investment and the need to prepare for a shift to consumer-led growth.