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A window is opening for BHP Billiton Ltd. to once again try a takeover of Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan.
Speculation is intense in the fertilizer industry that BHP may mount another campaign to win over Saskatoon-based Potash Corp. after being shot down in 2010. It failed the federal government’s murky “net benefit test” after a strong push from a Saskatchewan government that opposed the transaction.
Bankers, executives and advisers on the political side agree that BHP would be crazy not to look again. To be clear, there is no sign that any potential deal is under way. But there are numerous reasons that people are talking about the possibility.
The numbers work. The personalities are closer to working. Even the politics are not insurmountable because the landscape has shifted, especially in Saskatchewan. Finally, what was true in 2010 remains true now: Owning Potash Corp. is the best way to get into the potash business.