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Iron ore wars get personal as Rio tells Fortescue to get its house in order – by Michael Smith (Australian Financial Review – April 30, 2015)

http://www.afr.com/

Fortescue Metals founder Andrew Forrest has not been shy about telling Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton how to run their iron ore operations. Rio Tinto’s iron ore boss Andrew Harding is now offering Forrest some advice of his own: get your own house in order and leave us alone.

“The response to that is to fix your own business – not give business advice to others, and definitely not create an environment in Australia where this long-term strategy, which is good for the country, and good for the company, is cast into question,” Harding said in an interview with The Australian Financial Review.

The comments highlight the growing tension between the nation’s three big iron ore producers as the debate about how to manage supply and demand in a low-price environment spills over into the political arena.

It is not the first time Harding has defended the strategy to run the company’s mines at full capacity. But the campaign on both sides is intensifying and becoming more personal.

Harding has made it clear Rio Tinto is not going to blink. He doesn’t believe BHP Billiton has either, despite some contrary interpretations of last week’s decision to defer infrastructure spending at Port Hedland.

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Ailing Fortescue begins job cuts, hits out at rivals BHP and Rio Tinto – by Andrew White and Andrew Burrell (The Australian – April 30, 2015)

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/

Andrew Forrest has accused his two larger rivals, BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto, of jeopardising the budget by driving the iron ore price lower as his Fortescue Metals Group began cutting jobs.

Mr Forrest said the price would be driven lower unless the major producers checked their planned increase in production and stopped saying they intended to continue “oversupplying’’ the market.

“If we don’t get responsibility coming into the future actions and the current statements of the very multinational companies that derive their fortunes from our own land then the iron ore price will continue to fall, the budget will be thrown into jeopardy, the deficit will grow and our standard of living will fall,’’ Mr Forrest told broadcaster Alan Jones yesterday. “And it’s all completely avoidable. None of this had to happen.’’

Mr Forrest has refused to back down on calls for the producers to agree on slowing capacity expansion, despite attention from the Australian Competition & Consumer Commission over the possibility of collusion.

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COLUMN-Iron ore rallies on small BHP output deferral? Ridiculous – by Clyde Russell (Reuters U.S. – April 23, 2015)

http://www.reuters.com/

LAUNCESTON, Australia, April 23 (Reuters) – While it’s well-known that markets can have irrational short-term moves, the 4 percent jump in Asian spot iron ore on Wednesday must be a more extreme case.

Spot iron ore .IO62-CNI=SI jumped to $52.90 a tonne from $50.80 on April 20, continuing its rally from the record low of $46.70 reached on April 2.

On the surface the catalyst for Wednesday’s spike was BHP Billiton’s announcement that it would defer an expansion of its output of the steel-making ingredient from 270 million tonnes a year to 290 million tonnes.

The future loss of 20 million tonnes from a market that’s oversupplied by multiples of that amount clearly isn’t a sound basis for a price rally. What it does show is a market where many participants are keen to call a bottom, and are happy to grasp onto any positive news as justification for a price rally.

It also shows that many in the market weren’t really reading into this week’s quarterly production reports from BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Brazil’s Vale.

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UPDATE 4-BHP blinks as iron ore prices fall, delays output boost – by James Regan (Reuters U.S. – April 22, 2015)

http://www.reuters.com/

SYDNEY, April 22 (Reuters) – BHP Billiton is slowing down its expansion plans in iron ore, the first big miner to pull back as a global supply glut sends ore prices tumbling.

The world no. 3 producer said it would delay an Australian port project that would have boosted output by 20 million tonnes and buoyed annual output to 290 million tonnes by mid-2017.

While BHP’s pullback is small compared with overall seaborne iron ore trade of around 1.3 billion tonnes, it is viewed as significant given BHP’s position as an efficient producer.

“It is probably more a symbolic posturing position by BHP, but it also likely signals the bottom of the iron ore market, given this action is being taken by one of the lowest cost producers,” said Mark Pervan, head of commodities for ANZ Bank.

Some analysts said the move suggests BHP expects ore prices to rise later in the decade, when it hopes to control a greater share of the global seaborne trade than it does now.

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Iron ore price crash erases $74b in market value – by Tess Ingram (Sydney Morning Herald – April 20, 2015)

http://www.smh.com.au/

The plummeting iron ore price has wiped $74 billion from the value of Australia’s key iron ore mining stocks since January 2014, and analysts expect share prices to continue their decline as the price for the commodity slides.

Investors that held on to the stocks while the price for iron ore sank during the past 15 months are now nursing losses in value of as much as 92 per cent.

Together, BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto, Fortescue Metals Group, Mount Gibson Iron, Atlas Iron, BC Iron, Arrium and Grange Resources suffered enormously as ore prices slumped 60 per cent from $US134 a tonne in January 2014 to $US50.93 a tonne on Friday.

A combined $73.7 billion, or 22 per cent of value, has been erased from their market capitalisations since January 2, 2014.

Excluding the diversified big miners, BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto, the combined market value of the six remaining companies has declined 71 per cent or $17.2 billion.

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BHP Spinoff’s Tailspin Is Dream for X2’s Mick Davis: Real M&A – by Brett Foley, Firat Kayakiran and James Paton (Bloomberg News – April 20, 2015)

http://www.bloomberg.com/

The plunging value of BHP Billiton Ltd.’s planned mining spinoff could hardly be better timed for the man who’s thinking of buying it.

Weeks from listing, the valuation of the new company, called South32, has plunged by almost half to as little as $7 billion, based on current prices for its products including alumina, manganese and nickel, Deutsche Bank AG estimated this month. That’s a gift for Mick Davis and his X2 Resources fund, which is weighing an eventual bid for South32, according to people familiar with his plans.

Davis, the former head of mining giant Xstrata Plc, has an untapped $5.6 billion fund that could be bolstered with debt to swallow a larger business. Amid the worst commodity slump in half a decade, South32 is still a target, with some analysts expecting its earnings to rebound when prices recover.

“They are good assets in challenged industries,” said Paul Phillips, a Melbourne-based analyst with Perennial Investment Partners Ltd., which manages about A$18.5 billion ($14 billion) of assets. “They have a lot of attractive features.”

BHP is carving off the business to focus on a smaller group of commodities and South32 is set to start trading May 18 in Australia, South Africa and the U.K. The newly formed company will include an Australian mine that’s the world’s largest silver and lead operation, a nickel mine in Colombia and aluminum assets in three countries.

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Three pension funds oppose Barrick Gold’s executive compensation – by Lisa Wright (Toronto Star – April 18, 2015)

The Toronto Star has the largest circulation in Canada. The paper has an enormous impact on federal and Ontario politics as well as shaping public opinion.

Pension plans in Ontario, B.C. and the Netherlands say they will vote against the re-election of the miner’s board of directors at annual meeting April 28

Three of the world’s largest pension funds say they won’t support the re-election of Barrick Gold Corp.’s board of directors or its executive compensation plan that includes a pay hike of 35 per cent for the board chairman.

The Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan, British Columbia Investment Management Corporation and the Netherlands’ PGGM Vermogensbeheer B.V., which is one of Europe’s biggest pension funds, said Friday they will oppose the Toronto gold miner’s controversial pay scheme that awards $12.9 million U.S. ahead of the board’s annual meeting April 28.

The pension funds join two major proxy advisors who recently recommended shareholders vote against a boost in executive compensation after a year in which Barrick reported a net loss of $2.9 billion and lost a third of its market value as the gold price tanked.

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World’s Lowest Cost Iron Ore Miner Turns Screw on Rivals – by Jesse Riseborough (Bloomberg News – April 17, 2015)

http://www.bloomberg.com/

Rio Tinto Group Chief Executive Officer Sam Walsh is fast becoming the worst nightmare of rival iron-ore producers starved of cash.

Iron ore prices have slumped by more than half in a year on a deepening global supply glut. That’s pushed some into bankruptcy and left others on life support. News that the lowest-cost producer is mining a ton of ore even more cheaply signals a more protracted price slump.

After achieving an industry-leading $19.50 a ton last year, currency movements and a drop in fuel costs mean Rio Tinto is now producing at $17, Walsh told investors in London on Thursday. The company is still seeking ways to ship it to Asian buyers more cheaply, he said.

“I know there’s a lot of controversy,” Walsh said. “I know that there’s a lot of late entries into the market who have taken advantage of higher prices and they are now feeling the impact of that as prices have come down. ‘‘This is rational, normal economics,’’ he said. ‘‘This is what physically happens across a range of commodities not just iron ore. It’s a process that we and others have got to work through.’’

The strategy, employed by the world’s largest producers, of continuing to expand output in the face of a price rout has earned the ire of some analysts, investors and loss-making rivals. Rio’s main competitor BHP Billiton Ltd. has described the tactic as ‘‘squeezing the lemon.”

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UPDATE 1-Apart from Big 3, iron ore miners face ‘existential’ threat – Goldman – by Manolo Serapio Jr (Reuters U.S. – April 16, 2015)

http://www.reuters.com/

SINGAPORE, April 16 (Reuters) – Up to half of iron ore output by miners outside the three mega producers in Australia and Brazil is at risk of closure with global demand set to peak at about 1.4 billion tonnes next year, Goldman Sachs said.

Production volumes among top miners – Vale, Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton – was not at risk, the bank said. “However, the rest of the industry is now facing an existential challenge,” Goldman analysts Christian Lelong and Amber Cai said in a report.

“We expect seaborne iron ore demand to peak in 2016 as the displacement of marginal Chinese iron ore production fails to offset a contraction in domestic steel consumption,” they said.

Separately, Moody’s Investors Service said supply reductions were dwarfed by planned increases estimated to exceed 300 million tonnes over the next several years.

Goldman cut its 2015 iron ore price estimate by 18 percent to $52 a tonne. It forecast $44 in 2016 and $40 in 2017 and 2018, down 29-33 percent from previous estimates. The price could drop to $40 this year and next, based on Moody’s estimates.

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Iron ore in fresh crisis as forward prices crumble – by Henning Gloystein and Manolo Serapio Jr. (Reuters India – April 10, 2015)

http://in.reuters.com/

SINGAPORE – (Reuters) – Iron ore is veering to a new crisis as prices for future delivery of the commodity slide 30 percent in the space of a month, and its outlook is now more bearish than oil and more dire than ever for miners struggling to just stay in business.

Prices of the steel-making ingredient for immediate delivery have slumped 60 percent over the past year as demand particularly from China slowed rapidly.

Despite the crumbling cash market, miners had been able to hedge future production at prices well above spot levels. Indeed, a month ago, miners could still sell 2017 output at close to $70 a tonne even as April 2015 prices fell below $60 for the first time in more than five years.

Forward iron ore prices have since tumbled below $47 for deliveries all the way until the end of 2017, depriving nearly all miners of any chance of establishing hedges at or above breakeven levels during that period.

A combination of factors brought about the recent capitulation in forward prices, most notably news that China plans to subsidise its iron ore sector to protect its flagging steel industry. Subsidies would help keep mines open and keep supplies flowing.

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Tax office pursues BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto over Singapore tax shelter – by Neil Chenoweth (Australian Financial Review – April 6, 2015)

http://www.afr.com/

Mining giants BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto are being pursued by the Australian Taxation Office for channelling billions of dollars in profits from iron ore sales through companies that pay almost no tax in Singapore.

While BHP Billiton and Rio TInto are Australia’s largest taxpayers, The Australian Financial Review has obtained documents that show the two mining companies report $2.6 billion a year in profits in their Singapore marketing hubs where they pay tax rates as low as 2.5 per cent.

The arrangements save the two companies more than $750 million a year in Australian tax and the ATO regards it as tax avoidance under the transfer pricing rules. The ATO is pursuing multibillion-dollar claims against each company, says a source with direct knowledge of the disputes.

The exact amounts of the potential tax bills are unclear and both companies have fought the ATO for years and argue their Singapore operations were not set up to reduce tax.

With scores of Australian companies rushing to open their own Singapore operations, the BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto cases shape as key precedents for the ATO, which has been warning of compliance problems with marketing hubs since 2010.

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Deutsche Bank cuts [BHP Billiton] South32 valuation – by Amanda Saunders (Sydney Morning Herald – April 2, 2015)

http://www.smh.com.au/

South32, the company being created in the demerger of BHP Billiton, will be in a “perfect position” to pursue acquisitions of up to $US3 billion ($3.9 billion) in Australian coal, and offshore in base metals and manganese – but its stock is likely to trade at just about $2 a share, well short of market expectations, according to Deutsche Bank.

Deutsche mining analyst Paul Young cut his valuation of South32 from $US13 billion to $US11.2 billion after reviewing the more than 1500 pages of shareholder documents on the spin-off released by BHP last month. His valuation for the spin-off falls to $US7 billion when based on current spot prices for commodities.

While the new company’s growth and savings opportunities will be limited, parent BHP with its strong balance sheet has put it “in the perfect position to pursue [value enhancing] acquisitions up to $US3 billion”, Mr Young said.

Also playing in its favour is the fact that the largest miners are selling non-core assets following the fall in commodities prices, and have all but ruled out acquisitions.

South32 is expected to first eye greenfield mining assets, rather than entire companies, according to the analyst report. High up on its list would be Anglo American’s 40 per cent stake, valued at $US1.4 billion, in the maganese group Samancor.

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A Word From The Editor-in-Chief, March 27, 2015 – by Michael Stutchbury (Australian Financial Review – March 28, 2015)

http://www.afr.com/

Andrew Forrest’s eye-popping call for the world’s big iron ore producers to drive the iron ore price back up by capping their production shows what crazy things the desperate can do. Twiggy even made his “national interest” call in Shanghai, among Chinese buyers of the iron ore dug up by his own Fortescue, Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton and Brazil’s Vale and just as he was about to meet Xi Jinping.

The Fortescue founder is a man of bold ambition and enthusiasm: creating the third force in Australian iron ore, enlisting the Pope to help end modern slavery, and pushing Tony Abbott to narrow indigenous disadvantage. He won’t end up behind bars for his latest big idea, but he is calling for what both Joe Hockey and ACCC chairman Rod Sims suggested would be an illegal producer cartel. As our Matthew Stevens asked: What was Forrest thinking?

Twiggy’s call is a spectacular sign of Australia’s big iron ore price squeeze. Forrest became a billionaire in the 2000s by creating Fortescue on the back of the China boom that drove the iron ore price from US$20 or so a tonne to $US180 a tonne. Now supply has belatedly responded to the increased demand, the price has hurtled back into the US$50s. That’s crunching Fortescue’s margins and forced it to keep producing more to keep its head above water.

In fact, in the past four years, Fortescue has boosted output more than Rio or BHP. But that’s just kept driving down the price towards Fortescue’s cost of production.

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NEWS RELEASE: What Does South32 Mean for the Nickel and Manganese Markets?

LONDON, March 19, 2015 /PRNewswire/ — In August 2014, BHP Billiton (BHPB) announced that it intended to demerge its aluminium, coal, manganese, nickel and silver assets into a new, independent global mining and metals company. In December, it was announced that the proposed company will be branded “South32”, to reflect the fact that its major operations will be in the southern hemisphere, in Australia and South Africa. This week saw the publication of a demerger prospectus which provided more detail about the spin-off:

  • South32 will be a top-10 global mining company headquartered in Perth, Western Australia, and will produce 10 commodities across five countries
  • After the demerger, which will cost an estimated US$738M, the company will have a gross asset value of US$26.7Bn
  • South32’s portfolio of assets made a pre-tax profit of US$422M in 2014 on revenues of US$10.4Bn
  • The company will begin life with a US$1.5Bn credit facility provided by a syndicate of banks to ensure that it has adequate liquidity
  • BHPB has loaded South32 with less debt than expected, US$674M
  • Shareholders will vote on the demerger in May

The creation of South32 has the potential to significantly impact the manganese and nickel markets:

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South32 looks better bet than parent BHP Billiton by Clyde Russell (Reuters U.S. – March 17, 2015)

http://www.reuters.com/

LAUNCESTON, Australia – (Reuters) – BHP Billiton has done a great job in making its spin-off South32 look attractive, perhaps to the point where it may be a better bet than its parent.

The world’s largest miner released documents on Tuesday outlining details for the new company, which will take over BHP’s aluminum, manganese, nickel, silver and some coal assets.

These assets are often described in the media as “unloved,” but the outlook for many of them is better than the core of iron ore, petroleum, copper and metallurgical coal that will remain with BHP. South32, so named for the line of latitude that links its main operating centers of South Africa and Australia, will get a head start from its parent.

The new company will assume only $674 million in net debt, about half the level analysts had expected, providing a boost to the management should they decide to pursue mergers and acquisitions. Analysts expect the new company, which will list in Australia, the United Kingdom and South Africa, will be worth up to $13 billion.

The South32 assets contributed net profit after tax of $738 million to BHP for the half year to December 2014, again an upside surprise that bodes well for the new company’s reception.

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