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Battery Technology Innovation/Electric Vehicles

Could Cobalt Choke Our Electric Vehicle Future? – by Prachi Patel(Scientific American – January 2019)

https://www.scientificamerican.com/

Demand for the metal, which is critical to EV batteries, could soon outstrip supply

An electric car future is speeding closer; economic analysts project that a third of all automobiles could be battery-powered by 2040. Most of these vehicles rely on large lithium-ion batteries, prompting worries about whether the world’s lithium supply can keep up.

But another element—cobalt—is a bigger concern, scientists reported in October in the journal Joule.

“The best lithium battery cathodes [negative electrodes] all contain cobalt, and its production is limited,” says study lead Elsa Olivetti, a materials scientist and engineer at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

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What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World – by Jack Ewing (New York Times – December 18, 2017)

https://www.nytimes.com/

On the slope of a thickly forested Czech mountain, three men in hard hats and mud-spattered fluorescent vests dig for the metal that could power a new industrial revolution.

They watch carefully as a mobile rig, mounted on tank treads, hammers and spins a drill bit hundreds of yards into the bedrock. Water gushes from the bore as the bit punctures an underground spring.

The men are prospecting for new sources of lithium, a raw material now found primarily in China and Chile that could become as important to the auto industry as oil is now. Faster than anyone expected, electric cars are becoming as economical and practical as cars with conventional engines. Prices for lithium-ion batteries are plummeting, while technical advances are increasing driving ranges and cutting recharging times.

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Chinese investment firm snaps up Giustra-backed Lithium X – by Niall McGee (Globe and Mail – December 19, 2017)

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/

A Chinese investment firm is buying a Frank Giustra-backed lithium exploration company run by a 29-year-old rookie CEO.

On Monday, Nextview New Energy Lion Hong Kong Ltd. announced it is paying $265-million for Lithium X Energy Corp. – the second investment by the Chinese investment firm in a Canadian-listed lithium company in the past few days.

The latest deal was announced in the midst of an ebullient market for battery metals such as cobalt and lithium, which have soared in price in recent years thanks to demand from the electric car industry.

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The Near Future of Electric Cars: Many Models, Few Buyers – by Keith Naughton (Bloomberg News – December 19, 2017)

https://www.bloomberg.com/

There will be more than 100 different battery-powered vehicles available in five years, despite little interest so far from drivers.

Automakers with ambitious plans to roll out more than a hundred new battery-powered models in the next five years appear to be forgetting one little thing: Drivers aren’t yet buzzed about the new technology.

Electric cars—which today comprise only 1 percent of auto sales worldwide, and even less in the U.S.—will account for just 2.4 percent of U.S. demand and less than 10 percent globally by 2025, according to researcher LMC Automotive. But while consumer appetite slogs along, carmakers are still planning a tidal wave of battery-powered models that may find interested buyers few and far between.

“When you hear people talk about the tipping point, it’s really that they’re counting the number of product offerings,” Hau Thai-Tang, Ford Motor Co.’s global head of product development and purchasing, said of electric cars. “Nobody can cite what the actual demand will be.”

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Electric cars have made this once obscure metal the hottest commodity of 2017 – by Eshe Nelson (Quartz Media – December 18, 2017)

https://qz.com/

2017 belonged to cobalt. The silvery-blue metal, which is mined as a by-product of copper and nickel, is a crucial element in the lithium-ion batteries that power everything from electric cars to Apple products.

This year, it has completely outshone the rest of the commodities market. The price of cobalt surged 120%, while the Bloomberg commodity index fell 4%.

The market for cobalt has increased from about $4 billion last year to about $8 billion, according to Bloomberg. Traders and automakers are betting that consumers will increasingly switch to electric vehicles as several countries around the world try to drastically cut down carbon emissions by banning gas and diesel cars.

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How Batteries Sparked a Cobalt Frenzy and What Could Happen Next – by Mark Burton (Bloomberg News – December 17, 2017)

https://www.bloomberg.com/

Cobalt left other metals in the dust this year, driven by demand from electric carmakers like Tesla Inc. But with new supply coming online and high prices likely to spur substitution and recycling, the market for the key battery component could prove choppier next year. Here are five themes that will capture the market’s attention in 2018.

Record Prices

After prices more than tripled in the past two years, cobalt has become a valuable prize for the handful of miners producing it at scale. The global market has increased from about $4 billion a year at the end of 2016 to about $8 billion now and is roughly equal in size to the tin market.

But cobalt could be set to level out in 2018. BMO Capital Markets sees prices averaging about $68,200 a ton from about $72,000 now as Glencore Plc and Eurasian Resources Group ramp up major new projects in 2018 and 2019.

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BMW Sees 10-Fold Jump in Its Need for Battery Materials by 2025 – by Elisabeth Behrmann (Bloomberg News – December 15, 2017)

https://www.bloomberg.com/

BMW AG’s needs for car-battery raw materials such as cobalt and lithium will surge 10-fold by the middle of the next decade, pushing the German carmaker increasingly to forge long-term deals as shortages loom.

Purchase contracts with five- to 10-year time frames are close to being completed, the manufacturer’s head of procurement told reporters in Munich Friday. Concerns about supply bottlenecks, especially for cobalt, have prompted auto producers including Volkswagen AG to step up efforts to ensure they have enough. BMW plans to offer 25 electrified vehicles by 2025, while VW is targeting a 300-model battery-powered lineup by 2030.

“We’ve been intensively focusing on how to manage future cobalt supply for about a year now,” said Markus Duesmann, the BMW purchasing executive. “Before, it wasn’t clear just how quickly demand will accelerate.”

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Australia cobalt rush accelerates on electric vehicle demand, DRC troubles – by Melanie Burton (Reuters Canada – December 15, 2017)

https://ca.reuters.com/

MELBOURNE (Reuters) – Australia, home to the world’s second-biggest cobalt reserves, is seeing a rush of interest in projects still years from production as makers of batteries used in electric vehicles (EVs) seek supplies of the metal from a more costly but less risky source than top miner, the Democratic Republic of Congo.

As auto makers seek to develop greener cars, shares in Clean TeQ CLQ.AX – owner of one of the largest cobalt deposits in Australia – have trebled this year. Minnows Cobalt Blue COB.AX, Australian Mines AUZ.AX, Artemis Resources ARV.AX and Aeon Metals AML.AX have also seen shares surge.

On Friday, Aeon, developing a copper-cobalt project in Queensland, raised A$30 million ($23 million) from institutional investors.

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Chile politics put Potash in tight spot on SQM stake sale – by Dave Sherwood and Felipe Iturrieta (Reuters U.S. – December 14, 2017)

https://www.reuters.com/

SANTIAGO (Reuters) – The chance to own a stake in Chile’s SQM, one of the world’s top lithium producers, has attracted several potential suitors as prices for the so-called white gold – a key ingredient in electric car batteries – have skyrocketed.

But the buyer of the 32 percent of SQM being sold by Canadian Potash Corp of Saskatchewan‘s, which needs to divest the stake as part of a merger, will need to navigate tricky politics well before any deal is inked.

With a presidential election in Chile on Sunday, conservative billionaire Sebastian Pinera has emerged as the favorite with investors, but neither he nor his opponent in the second-round runoff, center-left candidate Alejandro Guillier, have expressed a favorable view of the scandal-plagued miner.

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This Electric Truck Will Probably Beat Tesla’s to Market (Bloomberg News – December 13, 2017)

https://www.bloomberg.com/

On the evening of Nov. 16, Elon Musk unveiled the latest prop in his Tony Stark cosplay. Tesla Inc.’s all-electric semi rig met all the classic Musk product launch criteria: It looked stunning, had unprecedented performance numbers, included features straight out of science fiction, and would arrive at some unknown date at a too-good-to-be-true price from a still-to-be-built assembly line.

Ten miles from the cramped Los Angeles airport hangar where thousands of Muskovites were swooning, a 25-year-old named Dakota Semler watched the performance on his phone, tossed a piece of sushi into his mouth, and shrugged. Semler, you see, has an all-electric semi of his own, a matte-black curvaceous truck known for now as the ET1.

It’s the first vehicle from his startup, Thor Trucks, which hopes to grab a tiny slice of the 940,000-unit-a-year market for semis and go after short-haul trucks, delivery vans, and work vehicles.

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Glencore sees battery minerals powering profit in 2017 and beyond – by Barbara Lewis and Arathy S Nair (Reuters U.K. – December 12, 2017)

https://uk.reuters.com/

LONDON (Reuters) – Miner and trader Glencore (GLEN.L) said on Tuesday its battery minerals, especially cobalt, should spur profit in 2017 and beyond in an update for investors that also promised to grow the business, especially through partnerships.

It said its marketing, or trading, division’s 2017 EBIT (earnings before interest and tax) would be at the top end of its previous guidance at $2.8 billion, steady from 2016 but effectively an increase given that Glencore sold half of its agriculture business last year.

The company also issued full-year 2018 overall EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) guidance of $16.2 billion, slightly below some analysts forecasts, but higher than Glencore’s guidance for full-year profit this year of $15 billion.

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Vale’s reality check for nickel’s electric vehicle dreams – by Andy Home (Reuters U.S. – December 12, 2017)

https://www.reuters.com/

Nickel is one of the materials expected to win from the coming electric vehicle (EV) revolution. Electric vehicles will be powered by lithium-ion batteries, which need cobalt and nickel. Indeed, as cobalt’s potentially fragile supply chain comes under ever-increasing scrutiny, battery-makers are likely to try to use less of the stuff in favor of more nickel.

So it might seem strange that the world’s largest nickel producer is actively curtailing capacity at mines and refineries. Yet that is precisely what Brazil’s Vale is doing, removing around 100,000 tonnes of supply over the next two years.

While “everyone knows there are great opportunities” for nickel in the EV sector, “prices are not there”, according to Vale Chief Executive Fabio Schvartsman, speaking at an investor event last week.

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Lithium stocks have had a dazzling year – are there more profits to come? – by Ian McGugan (Globe and Mail – December 12, 2017)

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/

Lithium, a lightweight metal essential to the latest generation of high-tech batteries, possesses two features most investments lack.

For one thing, future demand is nearly certain to surge as battery-driven vehicles grab an increasing share of the automotive market. For another, a handful of companies now dominate production of lithium.

Combine growing demand with today’s oligopoly of producers and it’s clear why three major U.S.-listed lithium miners have been among the best non-bitcoin investments of 2017. Shares of Sociedad Quimica Y Minera de Chile, the Chilean giant better known as SQM, have surged 80 per cent since January. Over the same period, Albemarle Corp., up 45 per cent, and FMC Corp., up 53 per cent, have also enjoyed dazzling runs.

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Small Canadian miners in pole position for electric vehicle battery boon – by Nicole Mordant (Reuters U.S. – December 11, 2017)

https://www.reuters.com/

VANCOUVER (Reuters) – Canadian developers of cobalt and lithium mines stand to benefit from a round of investments from the makers of electric vehicles and the batteries powering them, a potential game-changer for small miners short on money to develop deposits of these critical battery ingredients.

Toronto-listed cobalt companies, Ecobalt Solutions and Fortune Minerals, are in talks, ranging from preliminary to more advanced, with more than a dozen groups, including car and battery makers, on financing their projects, their chief executives told Reuters.

The interest in miners from downstream players along the battery supply chain – a new area of investment for most – would provide a life-line to miners at time when equity funding for developers remains relatively tight after a five-year downturn on weak metals prices.

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Vale cuts nickel output but is positive on long-term demand – by Christian Plumb (Reuters U.S. – December 6, 2017)

https://www.reuters.com/

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Brazilian miner Vale SA dialed back its nickel output forecasts for the next five years on Wednesday, although the world’s top producer of the metal praised its longer term prospects on likely soaring demand for electric cars.

Vale cut its nickel output estimate by 15 percent to 263,000 tonnes next year and said it was still seeking an investor for its New Caledonia nickel mine.

However, Vale wants to “preserve its nickel optionality” ahead of an expected boom in electric vehicles in the next decade, said Jennifer Maki, executive director of Vale’s base metals unit, at an annual investor presentation in New York.

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