COLUMN-Big miners’ coal M&A activity points to price bottoming out – by Clyde Russell (Reuters U.S. – December 11, 2014)

http://www.reuters.com/

LAUNCESTON, Australia, Dec 11 (Reuters) – If you were looking for a sign that coal prices have finally bottomed out, then the ramping up of merger and acquisition activity is often a good indicator.

Just as major mining companies tend to buy assets at inflated prices at the zenith of the market, they tend to sell them at discounts at the nadir.

In the past few days, a flurry of announcements have hit the headlines, including Anglo American’s proposed sale of coal assets in Australia and South Africa, and Peabody Energy and Glencore agreeing to form a joint venture at neighbouring mines in Australia’s Hunter Valley basin.

The M&A activity hasn’t been limited to Australia and South Africa, with Brazil’s Vale selling a stake in its Mozambique mine to Japan’s Mitsui, and Consol Energy saying it plans to pursue an initial public offering of some of its U.S. thermal and coking coal assets.

Companies tend to use obfuscatory language in the announcements of these deals, often resorting to terms such as “unlocking shareholder value” or “maximising synergies,” but behind the spin is often the simple message that the assets are loss-making and the pain on the bottom line has become too much to bear, or if they are profitable, they aren’t providing enough of a return on capital.

Read more

Glencore boss slams iron ore sector (The Australian – December 11, 2014)

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business

DOW JONES NEWSWIRES – The chief executive of mining giant Glencore, Ivan Glasenberg, again criticised the industry for its over-investment in certain commodities, telling investors that “fortunately we don’t produce iron ore.”

Mr Glasenberg’s apparent distaste for the key steelmaking ingredient comes despite Glencore’s approach earlier this year to Rio Tinto, one of the world’s largest iron ore producers, over a potential tie-up. The approach was rejected and under UK company rules Glencore can’t revive the talks until later next year.

Mr Glasenberg has criticised mining rivals such as Rio and BHP Billiton for continuing to invest in and ramp up iron ore production even though the commodity’s price slumped this year. Speaking at the company’s investor day, he said the reason prices had fallen was that “we’ve all invested too much, we’ve increased supply and unfortunately a big amount has gone in the iron ore market.”

The comments came as benchmark iron ore slid to $US68.90 a tonne overnight, just over 1% above its five-year low. Glencore said it would continue to take a disciplined approach to expanding its production capacity, amid the recent fall in commodity prices.

Mr Glasenberg said “capital misallocation, not a lack of demand, remains a key issue for the sector resulting in a clear need to differentiate by commodity.”

Read more

The 2015 Energy Outlook Series: Coal – by Vicky Validakis (Australian Mining – December 8, 2014)

http://www.miningaustralia.com.au/home

Coal has had a tumultuous 12 months but will 2015 be any better? Coal prices declined steadily in the first months of 2014 in response to a combination of in-creased supply and lower import demand from China.

Australian benchmark contract prices for high-quality metallurgical coal settled at $US120 in the September quarter, a price that left many coal operations unprofitable.

Thermal coal fared even worse, with Newcastle free on board spot prices averaging US$73 a tonne in the first eight months of 2014, down 16 per cent year on year. The price glut mean something had to give, and 2014 was the year the coal industry decided to restructure its workforce leading to massive job cuts.

Australian Mining estimates that more than 2500 jobs in the coal sector were cut as mining companies either downsized their operations or shut them down completely.

The Integra coal complex in the Hunter Valley was an early victim of coal’s fall from grace, as Vale announced in May that it would close the operation, taking 500 with it.

Read more

BHP Billiton spin-off named South32 – by Jamie Smyth (Financial Times – December 8, 2014)

http://www.ft.com/intl/companies/mining

BHP Billiton ended speculation about the name of its new spin-off company that will hold up to $15bn in non-core assets, calling it South32.

The Anglo-Australian resources group said the name of the new company reflected the fact that most of its assets are located in the southern hemisphere linked by the 32nd parallel line of latitude. It was chosen following the suggestion of an employee, said the company.

“Our heritage and the places in which we operate are an important part of our identity,” said Graham Kerr, chief executive elect of South32.

“While South32 is grounded in the southern hemisphere, we will retain our global reach and ambition as we seek to exceed the expectations of a global shareholder base.”

South32 will have a primary listing in Australia as well as a secondary listing in South Africa and a standard listing in London.

BHP is in the midst of a major corporate restructuring designed to simplify the group and boost profitability. It is bundling a swath of non-core assets into a separate diversified mining company, the “newco”, which it initially proposed to list only on stock exchanges in Australia and South Africa. But following protests from UK investors it changed course.

Read more

The 2015 Metals Outlook Series: Silver, Zinc, Lead – by Cole Latimer (Australian Mining – December 2, 2014)

http://www.miningaustralia.com.au/home

The market for base metals silver, lead, and zinc is finally seeing moderate action.

The period leading to the global financial crisis saw an explosion of growth, with the sector seeing a 30.9 per cent growth in revenue followed swiftly by a 56.2 per cent growth in revenues, creating a heady market.

However once the GFC hit the bottom swiftly fell out of the market, as prices retreated quickly, and inversely, to the rest of the mining sector.

A 13.2 per cent decline was chased by another period of plummeting revenue, with the sector recording a 43.5 per cent drop in revenue. It recovered briefly in 2010 before seeing another swift fall into negative territory in 2012 before the current lift into even pricing territory.

This, more than many real­ise, had a major effect on the Australian mining landscape as the nation is the largest lead exporter and one of the largest zinc concentrate exporters worldwide. So what lies ahead for the metals?

Much of it relies on the contin-ued weakness of the Australian dollar. IBISWorld research states that overall revenues and the price of the metals are “forecast to increase over the five years through 2018/19 due to the interplay of higher output, stronger US dollar prices for silver, lead, and zinc, and a weaker Australia dollar”.

Read more

The 2015 Metals Outlook Series: Nickel – by Cole Latimer (Australian Mining – December 1, 2014)

http://www.miningaustralia.com.au/home

The story of nickel is finally one of stability.

Since 2005 the me­tal has been wracked by skyrocketing highs and sharp declines that have caused massive job losses and uncertainty that has seen an exodus from the sector by many of the larger players.

Much of this was due to a fall in stainless steel demand, working inversely to the growing demand for construction steel. IBISWorld put it succinctly: “Nickel prices, having reached unprecedented highs prior to the global financial crisis, plummeted as global economic growth slumped in subsequent years.”

And while the future is slated to be better, a swift and strong recovery is not forecast. Earlier this year the metal reached a two year high in May, but since that time has reversed its gains, falling 27 per cent.

Much of this spike was based on Indonesia’s implementation of a ban on unrefined nickel being exported, with prices surging 56 per cent at the time, however the fall came quickly due to the likelihood of current global supply more than meeting the hole left by the Indonesian ban.

BHP’s attempts to sell off its Nickel West assets exemplified the confused nature of the sector. While the miner saw the assets as valuable enough to retain during its greater demerger earlier this year, it did not see them as vital enough to keep within its mix.

Read more

Rio keen to blend mining and marketing – by James Wilson and Neil Hume (Financial Times – December 1, 2014)

http://www.ft.com/home/us

Pilbara Blend. Robe Valley. Yandicoogina Fines. The names may sound as if they belong on a tea caddy or in a wine cellar – but Rio Tinto investors know better. These are the labels under which the company sells Australian iron ore, the prosaic yet hugely important commodity on which its fortunes depend.

The idea of branding a commodity that is shovelled into blast furnaces to make steel may seem strange. But iron ore has many variations in mineral content and purity.

Miners such as Rio say part of their skill lies in matching ores to the right buyers. Their marketing strategies are therefore crucial to their success – more so this year, when a flood of low-cost supply from Rio and its peers helped to drive the iron ore price down by almost 50 per cent.

Now investors have another important reason to consider Rio’s marketing skills: they are central to a possible tie-up with Glencore, the rival commodities group that this year approached Rio about a potential merger.

Glencore is one of the world’s most successful and entrepreneurial trading companies, spanning commodities such as coal, copper, oil and agricultural products. Its pursuit of a combination with Rio next year may hinge on whether Ivan Glasenberg, Glencore’s chief executive, judges he can extract value from Rio’s iron ore assets – the source of almost 90 per cent of its earnings – with better marketing and trading.

Read more

Can cost-cutting break Rio Tinto’s link with iron ore price? – by Clyde Russell (Reuters U.S. – December 1, 2014)

http://www.reuters.com/

LAUNCESTON, Australia – (Reuters) – Rio Tinto launched a stirring defense of its iron ore strategy last week, with the basic message that it will still make huge profits even as the price slumps to five-year lows.

Leaving aside, for the moment, that some of Rio Tinto’s price and demand assumptions for the steel-making ingredient still look heroic, the real question to be answered is can the company convince the market that it’s on the right path?

To do so, Rio Tinto will have to break the shackles of the strong correlation of its share price to that of Asian spot iron ore.

Since the 2008 recession the Australian-listed shares of the world’s second-biggest iron ore miner have moved pretty much in lockstep with the price of the steel-making ingredient, although this year the correlation has shown signs of breaking down.

Iron ore has fallen a dramatic 48 percent this year, with the close on Nov. 28 of $69.80 a tonne only marginally above the $68 reached on Nov. 26, which was the weakest since June 11, 2009. Rio Tinto’s shares ended at A$59.10 ($49.64) on Nov. 28, down just 13.3 percent for the year.

The question is whether the nexus between the share price and iron ore has broken or whether the relationship is likely to be restored, most probably by the shares losing value since the prospect of iron ore rebounding is slim given the huge supply overhang in the market.

Read more

Iron ore prices could stay depressed for 10 years – by Scott Murdoch (The Australian – December 1, 2014)

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business

A PROMINENT Chinese fund manager has grimly forecast that the global iron ore price could remain under pressure for 10 years as oversupply continues to hit the market and the Chinese residential property market slumps.

Shanghai Jianfeng vice-president Liang Ruian believes prices could slide below $US60 a tonne within the next year and could even fall to as low as $US50 a tonne, with major consequences for miners around the world.

The iron price on the weekend was $US71.32 a tonne, up $US1.34, but the commodity is down more than 50 per cent this year. The price slide has prompted miners to rethink capital expenditure plans and intensifies pressure on companies struggling to bring projects to the production stage.

Mr Liang, a well known fund manager in Shanghai, said the price of iron ore would be heavily affected by the performance of the domestic Chinese real estate ¬market.

About 30 per cent of China’s steel output is used in residential development, which is forecast to remain flat in the next few years after a surge following the global financial crisis. It is estimated China now has a nationwide inventory of housing to last up to three years.

Read more

COLUMN-Sliding investment, cost-cutting shows commodity boom-bust lives – by Clyde Russell (Reuters U.S. – November 28, 2014)

http://www.reuters.com/

LAUNCESTON, Australia, Nov 27 (Reuters) – Anybody who still has lingering doubts that the commodity cycle has turned bearish need only delve into two reports released this week on Australia’s resources sector.

The half-yearly report from the Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics (BREE), the government’s forecaster, showed only three projects, worth a total A$597 million ($507 million), reached a positive final investment decision (FID) in the six months to October.

This is not only the lowest number, but the lowest value for more than a decade, and is conclusive proof that investment in projects is waning under the burden of low prices and more muted demand forecasts as growth in top buyer China slows.

The other report released this week came from consultants PwC, with their annual review of mid-tier Australian miners showing companies are now trying to maximise productivity by boosting output while cutting costs.

The problem is so far these efforts aren’t bearing fruit, as prices fall faster than the companies can make improvements. “In fact, the worst may be yet to come, at least for iron ore and coal miners,” PwC said in the Nov. 25 release.

Read more

Glencore readies for Rio Tinto round two – by Amanda Saunders (Sydney Morning Herald – November 26, 2014)

http://www.smh.com.au/

Glencore chief executive Ivan Glasenberg’s second attempt to force a merger with Rio Tinto will involve an attack on Sam Walsh over dwindling hopes of substantial capital returns, as he tries to win the support of Rio’s biggest shareholder, Chinese giant Chinalco, by promising to sell key assets Oyu Tolgoi and Simandou.

That’s the view of Bernstein’s London-based senior analyst Paul Gait, who predicted Glencore would make a move on Rio in September, a month before Rio confirmed the approach.

That $190 billion merger approach was rebuffed, and under British law Glencore must wait until April to make another attempt. Mr Gait expects Mr Glasenberg will waste little time. “Is he coming back? In my view, yes,” Mr Gait said from London.

Mr Gait told The Australian Financial Review Glencore’s shock announcement that it would shut down its Australian coal operations for three weeks was a strong indication Mr Glasenberg would try again for Rio. He said Mr Glasenberg would be able to point to Glencore’s willingness to pull tonnes out of an oversupplied market in a direct challenge to Rio over its expansion in iron ore.

“To me this coal announcement is clearly Ivan playing games,” Mr Gait said. “It had the language of someone trying to make his credentials on managing the market as a CEO. It’s a shot across the bows to Rio.”

Read more

BHP rethinks Olympic Dam – by Matt Chambers (The Australian – November 25, 2014)

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/

BHP Billiton has outlined new plans to turn the Olympic Dam mine in South Australia into the world’s second-biggest copper mine and potentially the world’s biggest uranium mine, in a big-ticket expansion that could see extra production at the start of next decade.

The plans, which BHP hopes to start exploring in earnest this year, are a big pullback from a $US30 billion open pit expansion of the giant copper-uranium-gold deposit shelved in 2012.

But they are the strongest indication since then that BHP is still serious about a big expansion of the massive Olympic Dam deposit that has been talked about since BHP acquired the mine in its 2005 takeover of WMC Resources. If the expansion goes ahead, it represents an extra $US3bn ($3.5bn) of potential annual revenue for BHP at current copper prices.

In presentations to analysts and media in Sydney yesterday, BHP chief financial officer Peter Bevean revealed the mining giant was targeting an underground mine expansion that would start producing in 2021-22 and ramp up to copper production of more than 450,000 tonnes a year by 2024.

This is more than double the 184,000 tonnes of copper Olympic Dam produced in 2013-14, but is well down on the 750,000 tonnes a year previously flagged under boomtime plans for the world’s biggest open-pit mine.

Read more

While Australian Miners Declare End of Massive Expansion of Iron Ore, Gina Rinehart Bucks Trend & Starts Export From New Mine – by Vittorio Hernandez (International Business Times – November 24, 2014)

 

http://au.ibtimes.com/

Gina Rinehart is the richest person in Australia and would likely remain that way for a long time. One reason behind her wealth, aside from inheriting Hancock Prospecting established by her father, Lang Hancock, is her bucking business trends.

Like her dad who dared invest in mining in areas that were considered outback, Rinehart will begin to export in September 2015 from her $8.6 billion iron ore mine despite prices of the commodity hitting a five-year low and bleak forecast for the next few months due to global oversupply and weak Chinese demand.

Rinehart told media that over 2 million metric tons of iron ore are stockpiled at Roy Hill where project construction is 67 percent complete. She said that since Roy Hill is a fast-schedule, major and really complicated projects, its being ahead of schedule is fantastic.

Read more

COLUMN-BHP, Rio were right on iron ore demand, wrong on supply – by Clyde Russell (Reuters U.K. – November 24, 2014)

http://uk.reuters.com/

LAUNCESTON, Australia, Nov 24 (Reuters) – What was lacking at BHP Billiton’s annual meeting was an admission that what has effectively happened with iron ore is that the company’sshareholders are subsidising the profits of Chinese steel mills.

Instead, what Chairman Jac Nasser told the media after the AGM on Nov. 20 was iron ore prices were “not inconsistent with the expectations we had built into our long-term investment”. Both Nasser and Chief Executive Andrew Mackenzie were keen to emphasize the productivity successes at the iron ore business, saying it remains one of BHP’s main profit drivers.

That may well be true, but the message from the executives at last week’s AGM doesn’t quite tally with what BHP was saying in 2011, when it was approving the massive expansion of its iron ore operations in Western Australia.

It was around this time that BHP, its Anglo-Australian rival Rio Tinto, newcomer Fortescue Metals Group and top iron ore miner Brazil’s Vale were all making decisions to radically boost output of the steel-making ingredient.

This unprecedented capacity expansion was based on the two-pronged view that China, which buys about two-thirds of seaborne iron ore, would continue its rapid growth for decades to come, and that low-cost producers would be able to force higher-cost miners from the market.

Read more

Richest Woman in Asia-Pacific Buys Iron as BHP Calls End to Era – by Jasmine Ng and David Stringer (Bloomberg News – November 21, 2014)

http://www.bloomberg.com/

Gina Rinehart, the Asia-Pacific’s richest woman, is set to start exports in September from her new A$10 billion ($8.6 billion) iron ore mine undeterred by prices trading near five-year lows and forecast to extend losses.

“We don’t like the ore price going down, but we’re in the lower quartile” of production costs, Rinehart, chairman of Hancock Prospecting Pty, said yesterday in an interview at the Roy Hill mine in Australia’s iron-rich Pilbara region.

She was talking just hours after Andrew Mackenzie, chief executive officer of BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP), called an end to the era of “massive expansions of iron ore.” BHP and rivals Rio Tinto Group (RIO) and Vale SA (VALE5) are flooding the global market, spurring a surplus after a $120 billion spending spree to boost the capacity of their mines from Australia to Brazil.

“I don’t think next year would be ideal to be adding new supply,” Daniel Morgan, a Sydney-based analyst at UBS AG, said in a Nov. 17. phone interview. “The market is pretty well supplied for the next few years.”

BHP stock lost 4.7 percent in Sydney this week for the biggest weekly loss since March, while Rio shares fell 6.1 percent. Fortescue Metals Group (FMG) Ltd., the country’s third-biggest shipper, retreated 54 percent this year.

Read more