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Australia/New Caledonia/Papua New Guinea Mining

Ailing Fortescue begins job cuts, hits out at rivals BHP and Rio Tinto – by Andrew White and Andrew Burrell (The Australian – April 30, 2015)

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/

Andrew Forrest has accused his two larger rivals, BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto, of jeopardising the budget by driving the iron ore price lower as his Fortescue Metals Group began cutting jobs.

Mr Forrest said the price would be driven lower unless the major producers checked their planned increase in production and stopped saying they intended to continue “oversupplying’’ the market.

“If we don’t get responsibility coming into the future actions and the current statements of the very multinational companies that derive their fortunes from our own land then the iron ore price will continue to fall, the budget will be thrown into jeopardy, the deficit will grow and our standard of living will fall,’’ Mr Forrest told broadcaster Alan Jones yesterday. “And it’s all completely avoidable. None of this had to happen.’’

Mr Forrest has refused to back down on calls for the producers to agree on slowing capacity expansion, despite attention from the Australian Competition & Consumer Commission over the possibility of collusion.

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Iron ore streak extends to nine days – by Daniel Palmer (The Australian – April 29, 2015)

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/

Iron ore has continued its march back toward $US60 a tonne in offshore trade amid rising hopes for more stimulus out of Beijing.

At the end of the latest session, benchmark iron ore for immediate delivery to the port of Tianjin in China was trading at $US59.20 a tonne, up 0.9 per cent from its prior close of $US58.70 a tonne.

The gains extend a withering run for the commodity that has come as a surprise to many, with a surge of over 25 per cent from its 10-year low of $US46.70 a tonne earlier this month. Much of this recovery has come in the past nine trading days, with iron ore last seeing a red session on April 15.

The developments have allowed for a strong bounce in stock prices within the iron ore sector, with BC Iron and Fortescue Metals leading the way.

The two WA-based miners endured a rare negative session yesterday during the current iron ore streak, with stock in both firms sinking around 5 per cent by the close as the broader market moved lower. Another lift in the commodity’s price overnight, however, leaves them primed to recover much of those losses during today’s trade.

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COLUMN-Iron ore rallies on small BHP output deferral? Ridiculous – by Clyde Russell (Reuters U.S. – April 23, 2015)

http://www.reuters.com/

LAUNCESTON, Australia, April 23 (Reuters) – While it’s well-known that markets can have irrational short-term moves, the 4 percent jump in Asian spot iron ore on Wednesday must be a more extreme case.

Spot iron ore .IO62-CNI=SI jumped to $52.90 a tonne from $50.80 on April 20, continuing its rally from the record low of $46.70 reached on April 2.

On the surface the catalyst for Wednesday’s spike was BHP Billiton’s announcement that it would defer an expansion of its output of the steel-making ingredient from 270 million tonnes a year to 290 million tonnes.

The future loss of 20 million tonnes from a market that’s oversupplied by multiples of that amount clearly isn’t a sound basis for a price rally. What it does show is a market where many participants are keen to call a bottom, and are happy to grasp onto any positive news as justification for a price rally.

It also shows that many in the market weren’t really reading into this week’s quarterly production reports from BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Brazil’s Vale.

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Neither Labor nor Liberal has handled WA’s mining boom well – by Larry Graham (Western Australia Today – April 23, 2015)

http://www.watoday.com.au/

Western Australia has a serious problem it needs to deal with. When confronted with unprecedented growth in the mining industry, WA could take the easy political option of spending up big and business as usual, or the more difficult path of others in similar circumstances by putting the windfall revenue away for a rainy day.

When the Barnett Government belatedly opted for a sovereign fund, they chose the one of the worst possible models – and Labor opposed the entire concept. What this bellowed was that neither side of politics understood what was going on around them.

The end results of successive WA governments’ mismanagement of the unprecedented growth are more reminiscent of Nauru than of a progressive economy. It’s easy to jump into political hyper-talk mode and blame the GST and falling iron ore prices for our budgetary woes, however both these events are cyclical and predictable.

With regard to the GST distribution, the recent brouhaha has been a boon to the Premier and the media, but a quick peek at the WA Treasurer Christian Porter’s one and only budget will show that GST revenue has not yet fallen to the levels he predicted in May 2011.

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UPDATE 4-BHP blinks as iron ore prices fall, delays output boost – by James Regan (Reuters U.S. – April 22, 2015)

http://www.reuters.com/

SYDNEY, April 22 (Reuters) – BHP Billiton is slowing down its expansion plans in iron ore, the first big miner to pull back as a global supply glut sends ore prices tumbling.

The world no. 3 producer said it would delay an Australian port project that would have boosted output by 20 million tonnes and buoyed annual output to 290 million tonnes by mid-2017.

While BHP’s pullback is small compared with overall seaborne iron ore trade of around 1.3 billion tonnes, it is viewed as significant given BHP’s position as an efficient producer.

“It is probably more a symbolic posturing position by BHP, but it also likely signals the bottom of the iron ore market, given this action is being taken by one of the lowest cost producers,” said Mark Pervan, head of commodities for ANZ Bank.

Some analysts said the move suggests BHP expects ore prices to rise later in the decade, when it hopes to control a greater share of the global seaborne trade than it does now.

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Strike like it’s 2011? Low copper prices loom large over wage talks – by Josephine Mason (Reuters U.S. – April 20, 2015)

http://www.reuters.com/

SANTIAGO – (Reuters) – When Antofagasta Chief Executive Diego Hernandez took the stage at the world’s biggest copper conference last week, he talked about the growing risks mining companies face from rising worker salaries in South America due to staff shortages and strong unions.

What he didn’t mention at the CRU copper conference in Santiago was the far graver immediate labor threat that many of his rivals face: the biggest round of contract negotiations since 2011, and likely the most contentious in years as falling copper prices and deep cost cutting programs strain relations between workers and operators.

The copper market seems to be perilously indifferent to the threat posed by this year’s contract talks at mines including one of the world’s largest, Grasberg in Indonesia, and Antamina, Peru’s biggest, risking a bullish shock if workers move to strike, analysts said.

“I think people are assuming with the change in the market, it’s going to automatically mean unions will be more flexible.  But it could be a very tough situation,” Juan Carlos Guajardo, executive director of Santiago-based mining consulting firm Plusmining, said. Last year, Antofagasta agreed to four-year contracts, including pay increases and cash bonuses, at its mines across Chile.

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Iron ore price crash erases $74b in market value – by Tess Ingram (Sydney Morning Herald – April 20, 2015)

http://www.smh.com.au/

The plummeting iron ore price has wiped $74 billion from the value of Australia’s key iron ore mining stocks since January 2014, and analysts expect share prices to continue their decline as the price for the commodity slides.

Investors that held on to the stocks while the price for iron ore sank during the past 15 months are now nursing losses in value of as much as 92 per cent.

Together, BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto, Fortescue Metals Group, Mount Gibson Iron, Atlas Iron, BC Iron, Arrium and Grange Resources suffered enormously as ore prices slumped 60 per cent from $US134 a tonne in January 2014 to $US50.93 a tonne on Friday.

A combined $73.7 billion, or 22 per cent of value, has been erased from their market capitalisations since January 2, 2014.

Excluding the diversified big miners, BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto, the combined market value of the six remaining companies has declined 71 per cent or $17.2 billion.

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BHP Spinoff’s Tailspin Is Dream for X2’s Mick Davis: Real M&A – by Brett Foley, Firat Kayakiran and James Paton (Bloomberg News – April 20, 2015)

http://www.bloomberg.com/

The plunging value of BHP Billiton Ltd.’s planned mining spinoff could hardly be better timed for the man who’s thinking of buying it.

Weeks from listing, the valuation of the new company, called South32, has plunged by almost half to as little as $7 billion, based on current prices for its products including alumina, manganese and nickel, Deutsche Bank AG estimated this month. That’s a gift for Mick Davis and his X2 Resources fund, which is weighing an eventual bid for South32, according to people familiar with his plans.

Davis, the former head of mining giant Xstrata Plc, has an untapped $5.6 billion fund that could be bolstered with debt to swallow a larger business. Amid the worst commodity slump in half a decade, South32 is still a target, with some analysts expecting its earnings to rebound when prices recover.

“They are good assets in challenged industries,” said Paul Phillips, a Melbourne-based analyst with Perennial Investment Partners Ltd., which manages about A$18.5 billion ($14 billion) of assets. “They have a lot of attractive features.”

BHP is carving off the business to focus on a smaller group of commodities and South32 is set to start trading May 18 in Australia, South Africa and the U.K. The newly formed company will include an Australian mine that’s the world’s largest silver and lead operation, a nickel mine in Colombia and aluminum assets in three countries.

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World’s Lowest Cost Iron Ore Miner Turns Screw on Rivals – by Jesse Riseborough (Bloomberg News – April 17, 2015)

http://www.bloomberg.com/

Rio Tinto Group Chief Executive Officer Sam Walsh is fast becoming the worst nightmare of rival iron-ore producers starved of cash.

Iron ore prices have slumped by more than half in a year on a deepening global supply glut. That’s pushed some into bankruptcy and left others on life support. News that the lowest-cost producer is mining a ton of ore even more cheaply signals a more protracted price slump.

After achieving an industry-leading $19.50 a ton last year, currency movements and a drop in fuel costs mean Rio Tinto is now producing at $17, Walsh told investors in London on Thursday. The company is still seeking ways to ship it to Asian buyers more cheaply, he said.

“I know there’s a lot of controversy,” Walsh said. “I know that there’s a lot of late entries into the market who have taken advantage of higher prices and they are now feeling the impact of that as prices have come down. ‘‘This is rational, normal economics,’’ he said. ‘‘This is what physically happens across a range of commodities not just iron ore. It’s a process that we and others have got to work through.’’

The strategy, employed by the world’s largest producers, of continuing to expand output in the face of a price rout has earned the ire of some analysts, investors and loss-making rivals. Rio’s main competitor BHP Billiton Ltd. has described the tactic as ‘‘squeezing the lemon.”

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Australia steeled for China slowdown as iron ore prices fall – by Jamie Smyth (Financial Times – April 16, 2015)

http://www.ft.com/home/us

Sydney – The last time Western Australia was engaged in a dispute with Canberra of this magnitude, it threatened to secede during a financial crisis sparked by the 1930s Depression.

The current friction is linked to China’s slowdown — a sign of how closely Australia’s fortunes are tied to Beijing’s appetite for its commodity exports.

“It’s not secession but it is tension and disengagement,” Colin Barnett, Western Australia’s premier, said this week when Canberra and other states rejected a request to help plug a widening hole in the state budget caused by plunging iron ore prices.

Western Australia is a mining state that enjoyed a decade-long boom selling iron ore — a key ingredient in steel — to China. Known by some as “China’s quarry”, the state hosts BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Fortescue Metals Group, which have spent billions of dollars building mines, railways and ports to almost double iron ore production to 717m tonnes over the past five years.

But just as global supply hits record levels, China’s economy is slowing and its desire for the reddish-brown ore may have plateaued.

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UPDATE 1-Apart from Big 3, iron ore miners face ‘existential’ threat – Goldman – by Manolo Serapio Jr (Reuters U.S. – April 16, 2015)

http://www.reuters.com/

SINGAPORE, April 16 (Reuters) – Up to half of iron ore output by miners outside the three mega producers in Australia and Brazil is at risk of closure with global demand set to peak at about 1.4 billion tonnes next year, Goldman Sachs said.

Production volumes among top miners – Vale, Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton – was not at risk, the bank said. “However, the rest of the industry is now facing an existential challenge,” Goldman analysts Christian Lelong and Amber Cai said in a report.

“We expect seaborne iron ore demand to peak in 2016 as the displacement of marginal Chinese iron ore production fails to offset a contraction in domestic steel consumption,” they said.

Separately, Moody’s Investors Service said supply reductions were dwarfed by planned increases estimated to exceed 300 million tonnes over the next several years.

Goldman cut its 2015 iron ore price estimate by 18 percent to $52 a tonne. It forecast $44 in 2016 and $40 in 2017 and 2018, down 29-33 percent from previous estimates. The price could drop to $40 this year and next, based on Moody’s estimates.

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Rumbles from the jungle as Bougainville mine stirs – by Rowan Callick (The Australian – April 13, 2015)

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/

Even the long-suffering Bougainville Copper board, which has witnessed cargo cults, wars, and the closure of its own vast mine, was puzzled when its share price soared 50 per cent a week ago.

For this sudden surge of confidence appeared, oddly, to have been triggered by troubling news for the company — the commencement of a new Mining Act passed by the Bougainville autonomous region’s parliament, which hands back control of all resources to landowners.

The future of the Bougainville mine, which still contains copper and gold worth about $50 billion, is tied up with its complex past, with the long geopolitical shadow cast by the 1989-2001 civil war on the island — and with cargo-­cultist hopes held out by local leaders allied to eccentric foreigners constantly seeking to seize control of the resources from BCL.

The ASX issued a “speeding ticket”, asking the company to explain the April 2 share price leap. BCL replied that it couldn’t. The price had slid back down to 28c by Friday.

The directors of the company, which is 53.58 per cent owned by Rio Tinto, 19.06 per cent by the Papua New Guinea government, and 27.36 per cent by other shareholders, are trying to juggle an enormous range of unknowns and variables, without even the compensating benefits of having a mine to run.

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Iron ore in fresh crisis as forward prices crumble – by Henning Gloystein and Manolo Serapio Jr. (Reuters India – April 10, 2015)

http://in.reuters.com/

SINGAPORE – (Reuters) – Iron ore is veering to a new crisis as prices for future delivery of the commodity slide 30 percent in the space of a month, and its outlook is now more bearish than oil and more dire than ever for miners struggling to just stay in business.

Prices of the steel-making ingredient for immediate delivery have slumped 60 percent over the past year as demand particularly from China slowed rapidly.

Despite the crumbling cash market, miners had been able to hedge future production at prices well above spot levels. Indeed, a month ago, miners could still sell 2017 output at close to $70 a tonne even as April 2015 prices fell below $60 for the first time in more than five years.

Forward iron ore prices have since tumbled below $47 for deliveries all the way until the end of 2017, depriving nearly all miners of any chance of establishing hedges at or above breakeven levels during that period.

A combination of factors brought about the recent capitulation in forward prices, most notably news that China plans to subsidise its iron ore sector to protect its flagging steel industry. Subsidies would help keep mines open and keep supplies flowing.

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Australia’s Hockey vs Glencore’s Glasenberg – by Kip Keen (Mineweb.com – April 9, 2015)

http://www.mineweb.com/

Treasurer’s tough comments on Glencore-Rio Tinto merger could be read as a stern warning by Australia’s government.

Taken at face value Australia’s treasurer Joe Hockey has declared Rio Tinto untouchable. As widely reported now by media, Hockey is quoted as saying by numerous sources at a recent meeting including mining executives that there was “no way” he’d let Glencore merge with Rio Tinto “on his watch”. Assuming the reports are accurate, the question becomes, is Hockey serious?

If he is, then Australia truly has a curious way of dealing with possible foreign takeovers. Yes, it’s ultimately up to the treasurer (a political position equivalent to finance minister in other parliaments) to decide on big deals like this where the “national interest”, e.g. major tax revenue, is at stake.

But then the decision is usually taken as part of, or at least after, some due diligence. Australia’s Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) usually makes unbinding recommendations on such deals to the treasurer. Then the treasurer decides, however he/she and his/her government want.

Now, if Hockey truly means “no way” on another (hypothetical) attempt by Glencore to merge with Rio Tinto, he would effectively be turning the whole process on its head.

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Australia treasurer would block a Glencore-Rio Tinto merger – by Sonali Paul (Reuters U.S. – April 8, 2015)

http://www.reuters.com/

(Reuters) – Australia’s treasurer has told business representatives he would not allow Glencore Plc to merge with Rio Tinto due to concerns about losing tax revenue, a person familiar with his comments said on Wednesday.

Treasurer Joe Hockey said based on the tax implications he had seen from the treasury, he would not allow a Glencore takeover of Rio, Australia’s second biggest miner and one of its biggest taxpayers, the person said. He declined to be identified due to the sensitivity of the issue.

Treasurer Joe Hockey’s office declined to confirm the comments. Four people said Hockey had spoken at a private meeting on March 30 organized by the Business Council of Australia and including members of the Minerals Council of Australia, but three would not give details.

Glencore approached Rio Tinto about a merger last July that would have created a $160 billion mining and commodities trading giant. Rio revealed in October it had rebuffed the approach, but under UK takeover rules, Glencore is now free to make a new bid, following a six-month breather.

“Any takeover would have to go through the normal processes at FIRB (Foreign Investment Review Board),” a spokesman for Hockey said.

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