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Australia in the Asian Century White Paper (October 2012)

Executive Summary

Asia’s rise is changing the world. This is a defining feature of the 21st century—the  Asian century. These developments have profound implications for people everywhere.

Asia’s extraordinary ascent has already changed the Australian economy, society and strategic environment. The scale and pace of the change still to come mean Australia is entering a truly transformative period in our history.

Within only a few years, Asia will not only be the world’s largest producer of goods and services, it will also be the world’s largest consumer of them. It is already the most populous region in the world. In the future, it will also be home to the majority of the world’s middle class.

The Asian century is an Australian opportunity. As the global centre of gravity shifts to our region, the tyranny of distance is being replaced by the prospects of proximity. Australia is located in the right place at the right time—in the Asian region in the Asian century.

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Israel wants details on Potash Corp. bid for Israel Chemicals Ltd. – by Pav Jordan (Globe and Mail – November 3, 2012)

Globe and Mail is Canada’s national newspaper with the second largest broadsheet circulation in the country. It has enormous influence on Canada’s political and business elite.

Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. has been asked by Israeli authorities to clarify its intention to acquire parts or all of Israel Chemicals Ltd., one of the country’s largest companies and a key supplier of potash to Europe.

Israel’s Finance Ministry told the Canadian fertilizer giant that it would only make a recommendation on a potential merger once a detailed application is submitted, according to a report by Bloomberg News.

The ministry could not be reached for comment about the report, which came a day after statements from Tel Aviv that there was no deal under consideration.

Saskatoon-based Potash Corp. already holds a 14-per-cent stake in ICL, a $16.4-billion company and one of the few major producers of the crop nutrient that is not part of the world’s two marketing groups. The other major supplier to Europe is K+S, which is also independent.

Most of the world’s potash supply is in the hands of Canpotex, the international marketing arm of producers that include Potash Corp., Mosaic Co. and Agrium Inc., or Canpotex’s Russian counterpart Belarus Potash Co., the trading joint venture of Uralkali and Belaruskali.

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Potash Corp. eyes Israeli rival by Pav Jordan (Globe and Mail – November 1, 2012)

Globe and Mail is Canada’s national newspaper with the second largest broadsheet circulation in the country. It has enormous influence on Canada’s political and business elite.

Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc., facing sharply lower demand in India and China, is setting the stage for a possible takeover of Israel Chemicals Ltd., in a politically sensitive move aimed at securing new markets for the world’s biggest producer of the crop nutrient.

Potash Corp., the world’s largest fertilizer maker, is looking to buy either all or a part of Israel Chemicals Ltd. (ICL), a $16.4-billion company in which it already owns a 14-per-cent stake.

“Discussions have occurred with Israeli government officials around potential options to increase our ownership stake in Israel Chemical Ltd.,” Potash Corp. said in a brief statement, in response to news out of Israel that it was in merger discussions.

The politically charged talks have involved state officials including Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, underscoring the importance of ICL – which holds mining rights to the Dead Sea – to the government, which has a golden share in the company.

A merger would put key state assets into the hands of the fertilizer giant at a time when its production capacity is growing but it needs to find new markets. A merger would put key state assets into the hands of the Canadian fertilizer giant at a time when it is already targeting large organic capacity growth.

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India emerges as unknown factor for Asia’s iron ore market – by Clyde Russell (Mineweb.com – October 31, 2012)

http://www.mineweb.com/

It’s likely that China will account for the bulk of growth in seaborne iron ore demand, with recession-plagued Europe expected to be steady at best and modest growth likely from the rest of the world.

LONDON (REUTERS) – India is emerging as the unknown factor for Asia’s iron ore market in 2013, which otherwise looks to be in a fair balance between supply and demand.

The key results from a Reuters poll of analysts on Monday showed median forecasts for iron ore prices next year at $120 a tonne and for Chinese import demand to gain 6 percent to 774 million tonnes from an estimated 730 million this year.

The scenario that the poll presents is for solid growth in iron demand from the world’s biggest user and steady prices as well, given Asian spot prices closed Monday at precisely $120 a tonne, near the highest level since late July.

It’s also likely that China will account for the bulk of growth in seaborne iron ore demand, with recession-plagued Europe expected to be steady at best and modest growth likely from the rest of the world.

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In Russia, patience proves a virtue for Kinross Gold – by Eric Reguly (Globe and Mail – October 22, 2012)

Globe and Mail is Canada’s national newspaper with the second largest broadsheet circulation in the country. It has enormous influence on Canada’s political and business elite.

MOSCOW — Kinross Gold Corp.’s new chief executive officer had no speaking role at the Russian Prime Minister’s Foreign Investment Advisory Council meeting, but his mere presence a week ago at the table with Dmitry Medvedev said a lot about the company’s connections to the Kremlin elite.

Kinross occupies a curious and unusual spot in Russia, not just because its mines, in the country’s far east, are closer to Toronto than to Moscow. It is because the Canadian company is the only foreign gold miner in Russia and one of the few foreign companies of any description to operate without local partners. It is also the only Canadian company on FIAC, whose 40 members, from Pepsi to General Motors, represent the country’s top foreign investors.

“I believe it’s important to have a presence here,” Paul Rollinson, who replaced Tye Burt as Kinross chief in August, said on the sidelines of the annual FIAC meeting. “We are definitely on the radar at both the federal and regional government levels.”

At the FIAC event, Mr. Medvedev talked about Russia’s desire to attract more foreign investors. He needs them to modernize an economy whose industries rumble along like an old steam train compared to their Western, Chinese and Japanese equivalents.

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Canada, Russia will share Arctic riches, scientist predicts – by Matthew Fisher (Postmedia News – October 9, 2012)

http://o.canada.com/

ST. PETERSBURG – The scientist responsible for preparing Russia’s claim to seabed rights at the top of the world says Canada and his country are both poised to reap staggering economic benefits when a deal on who owns title to what in the northern ocean is finally struck.

“Canada has a wonderful shelf and basin, so of course Canada can get very rich from this,” said Victor Posyolov, deputy director of Russia’s Institute of World Ocean Geology and the head of its Arctic research program.

Poring over maps tracking the evidence that he is amassing for Russia’s claim, Posyolov estimated that his country, with the longest Arctic coastline, would gain rights to about 1.2 million square kilometres of seabed. He reckoned Canada would get about 800,000 square kilometres of sub-surface territory. That would be about twice as much seabed as the other claimants, Denmark and the United States, are likely to get.

“The biggest shelves and basins are in Canadian waters and it will benefit the most. The U.S. and Denmark have modest sectors,” Posyolov said in a room dominated by a circumpolar map that Canada and Russia jointly produced in 1992.

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MPs arrested over Canadian mine protest – by Olga Dzyubenko (Globe and Mail – October 5, 2012)

The Globe and Mail is Canada’s national newspaper with the second largest broadsheet circulation in the country. It has enormous influence on Canada’s political and business elite.

BISHKEK — Reuters – Kyrgyzstani police on Thursday arrested three members of parliament who had led a crowd that tried to storm government headquarters in a protest over a Canadian-owned gold mine, Centerra Gold.

Wednesday’s clashes between police and supporters of the opposition Ata Zhurt party in the former Soviet republic were the most violent in the capital, Bishkek, since the April, 2010, revolt that ousted then-president Kurmanbek Bakiyev.

The protesters want the mine, crucial to Kyrgyzstan’s fragile economy, to be nationalized. The three parliamentarians – Kamchibek Tashiyev, Sadyr Zhaparov and Talant Mamytov – are being held on suspicion of trying to seize power. Prosecutors have 48 hours to decide whether to charge them.

On Thursday, about 1,000 supporters rallied in the main square of the southern city of Jalalabad, their power base, to demand their release. There was no violence. “Parliament, the President, the government should resign because they are not resolving the Kumtor issue,” one demonstrator shouted through a megaphone.

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China joins nations seeking treasure in warming Arctic – by Elisabeth Rosenthal (New York Times/NBC News – September 19, 2012)

Visit NBCNews.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

 http://www.nbcnews.com/

Bid to join Arctic Council is so ‘it won’t be shut out from decisions on minerals and shipping,’ expert says

NUUK, Greenland — With Arctic ice melting at record pace, the world’s superpowers are increasingly jockeying for political influence and economic position in outposts like this one, previously regarded as barren wastelands.

At stake are the Arctic’s abundant supplies of oil, gas and minerals that are, thanks to climate change, becoming newly accessible along with increasingly navigable polar shipping shortcuts. This year, China has become a far more aggressive player in this frigid field, experts say, provoking alarm among Western powers.

While the United States, Russia and several nations of the European Union have Arctic territory, China has none, and as a result, has been deploying its wealth and diplomatic clout to secure toeholds in the region.

“The Arctic has risen rapidly on China’s foreign policy agenda in the past two years,” said Linda Jakobson, East Asia program director at the Lowy Institute for International Policy in Sydney, Australia. So, she said, the Chinese are exploring “how they could get involved.”

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China denies it is “gobbling up” India’s iron ore – by Shivom Seth (September 24, 2012)

www.mineweb.com

An exhaustive report into illegal mining in the Indian state of Goa has also accused China of using up all of India’s iron ore reserves.

MUMBAI (MINEWEB) – The China Iron and Steel Association has rejected assertions that it is to blame for “gobbling up India’s iron ore reserves” while, at the same time strategically choosing not to mine its own deposits of the metal.

The charges were laid at the feet of the Asian giant by a report into illegal iron ore mining in Goa by the Justice M.B. Shah Committee. The report, which pegged Goa’s mining scam at nearly $6.5 billion, also noted that “China had strategically stopped short of tapping its deposits of 200 billion tonnes”…and suggested that the “Central government should consider banning exports of Indian ore.”

It added, “Planning and conservation of iron ore for at least 50 years is required for Goa so that future generations may not be required to import entire steel from China and likewise countries.”

The report added that while India was exporting ore to China, China was exporting steel back to India and had stopped tapping its domestic deposits. “It would not be out of context to state here that China…prefers to import from countries like India and others.

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B2Gold to buy Philippine miner for $1.1-billion – by Pav Jordan (Globe and Mail – September 20, 2012)

The Globe and Mail is Canada’s national newspaper with the second largest broadsheet circulation in the country. It has enormous influence on Canada’s political and business elite.

A small Vancouver miner has struck the first major gold deal in months, marking what may be the start of a new wave of buying in the sector as bullion prices rise within reach of record highs from a year ago.

B2Gold Corp., which prides itself on mining for gold where others do not, said on Wednesday that it reached a $1.1-billion all-stock deal to acquire CGA Mining Ltd., owner of the largest operating gold project in the Philippines.

It is offering 0.74 B2Gold shares for each share of CGA, a 26 per cent premium to CGA’s closing price as of Sept. 17. Gold prices are near $1,800 (U.S.) an ounce, just off record levels near $1,900 an ounce a year ago.

“I think in a more buoyant market like we have now, there is a greater chance of things getting done,” said Jens Mayer, co-head of investment banking at Canaccord Genuity Corp., which advised B2Gold on the deal. “People are getting accustomed to the new world in terms of valuations.”

The B2Gold/CGA deal is one of the largest involving a Canadian company in recent months, adding some shine to what has been a lacklustre year for deal making in the sector.

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NEWS RELEASE: Australia’s mining sector in the balance

Baker & McKenzie launches global report examining the challenges and  opportunities facing the world’s key mining destinations

Australia, 17 September 2012 – Baker & McKenzie, the world’s largest law firm, has launched a report highlighting significant concerns about the future of Australia’s mining sector.

The Firm surveyed more than 300 senior industry leaders across six key mining jurisdictions – Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Indonesia and South Africa – and the research suggests that investors in Australia are more pessimistic about the future of mining investment in this country than those investing in the other jurisdictions surveyed.

Of the executives commenting on Australia, 75% said that investing in the mining sector has become more complicated and costly due to factors such as increasing regulatory and environmental obligations, complex and uncertain project development requirements and the rising costs of mine development and operation.

The level of Commonwealth and State Government involvement in the Australian mining industry is also causing concern to investors, with 61% of respondents believing that the Government is too involved in the industry and 72% believing that sovereign risk is on the increase. 

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Summit boosts Vladivostok’s profile – by Jonathan Manthorpe (Vancouver Sun – September 17, 2012)

The Vancouver Sun, a broadsheet daily paper first published in 1912, has the largest circulation in the province of British Columbia.

Russia spent $22 billion to build gateway port for Europe-bound Asian goods
 
When Vladivostok was asked to host the summit of the 21-member Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation forum Russian leader Vladimir Putin saw an opportunity to reverse the steady decline of a region that covers a third of the country’s territory.
 
In the years leading up to the weeklong APEC summit earlier this month Moscow and other levels of government spent about $22 billion to establish the port city of Vladivostok as the gateway for Asia to the resource-rich eight provinces of Pacific Russia.
 
The plans are also to make Vladivostok the hub of a transportation network that will allow the overland export of Asia’s manufactured goods to Europe and the Middle East, cutting at least 20 days off the time taken to ship by sea.
 
At the same time, Vladivostok and the surrounding province are in the early stages of crafting their own manufacturing industries, primarily automotive and home appliance factories at this point. The investments in Vladivostok sparked by the APEC summit are impressive.

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Mining investment to grow ever more complex, costly, industry leaders fear – Baker & McKenzie – by Dorothy Kosich (September 17, 2012)

www.mineweb.com

“Mining jurisdictions must consider their competitiveness to mining investment or risk that investment being deployed elsewhere, said David Ryan of Baker & McKenzie, Australia.

RENO (MINEWEB) –  A survey of 300 mining industry leaders released Monday by the Baker & McKenzie, Australia, Global Mining Group found the common theme across all jurisdictions surveyed is that “investing in mining is becoming more difficult and less certain.”
 
Key themes from the study include the complexity of the legal and regulatory environment, political stability, increase in resource nationalism, and the need for access to infrastructure and skilled labor.
 
One theme that all jurisdictions seemed to have is common is that a majority of respondents said they believe that mining sector investment will continue to be more complicated in the future.

Baker & McKenzie surveyed more than 300 senior mining industry leaders across six key mining jurisdictions-Australia, Brazil, Canada, Indonesia and South Africa-for the report Mining investment-local challenges, global implications.

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Friedland seeks funding for Congo project – by Christopher Donville (Bloomberg/Toronto Star – September 14, 2012)

The Toronto Star has the largest circulation in Canada. The paper has an enormous impact on federal and Ontario politics as well as shaping public opinion.

VANCOUVER—Robert Friedland, the billionaire who spent the past decade building a $6 billion (U.S.) copper mine in Mongolia’s Gobi Desert, is asking investors to fund projects in an even riskier locale—the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Ivanplats Ltd., a Friedland-controlled mining company, plans to raise about $300 million (Canadian) in an initial public offering in Toronto, according to a person with knowledge of the IPO who declined to be identified because the amount hasn’t been published. Vancouver-based Ivanplats seeks funding for its Kamoa copper project in Congo and to repay debt owed to Israeli investor Dan Gertler, who sold the company a zinc mine in the African country last year, according to a prospectus filed with regulators Sept. 10.

Friedland, 62, five months ago lost control of the Oyu Tolgoi mine in Mongolia after disputes with the government and joint venture partner Rio Tinto Group. He’s now proposing a mining development in Congo, whose government seized copper assets from Canada’s First Quantum Minerals Ltd. in 2010, and in South Africa, where the mining industry is convulsed by labor unrest.

“I would call the DRC the ultimate high-risk, high-reward mining destination—it’s one that’s on the radar of all serious mining companies because of its huge wealth and mineral resources,” James Smither, head of the mining practice at Maplecroft, a Bath, England-based risk-analysis company, said by telephone.

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Philippines’ black market is China’s golden connection – by Rosemarie Francisco (Reuters.com – August 23, 2012)

http://in.reuters.com/

MOUNT DIWATA, PHILIPPINES – (Reuters) – Erich Mulato walked out of a dingy workshop in this mountain village and into a gold shop next door, clutching a handful of shiny warm nuggets newly refined from the ore he had brought in.

The 53-year-old father of six had come off a 24-hour shift at one of the hundreds of small-scale mines in this region of southern Philippines. He sold the 5.49 grams of gold in his hand – his share of the day’s output – for 8,260 pesos. That’s more than 16 times what a manual laborer earns daily in Manila.

“Here, we can easily make money,” Mulato said, blowing smoke from a cigarette as he waited for his money at the gold shop. “Whatever we want to buy, we can buy … Making a living is better here.” Better for Mulato, but not for the Philippine government.

In all likelihood, Mulato’s gold will find its way through middlemen and into the luggage of a tourist or the black market in Manila – not to its only legal destination, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas or the central bank. Up to 90 percent of small-scale Philippine gold production is being smuggled out of the Southeast Asian country, according to estimates from officials and traders, much of it to China.

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