Canada in Afghanistan: From digging trenches to digging mines? – by Murray Brewster (Canadian Press/CTV News – March 14, 2014)

http://kitchener.ctvnews.ca/

KABUL, Afghanistan – Canadians could go from digging trenches to helping dig gold and copper mines in Afghanistan if the Harper government has its way.

The country’s ambassador to Kabul signalled this week that the moribund Afghan economy will be a principal focus for Canada, which has formally ended its military mission.

The hope is to turn the page on a decade of military involvement and aid handouts in the desperately poor, war-torn nation.  Standards which Canada has long promoted, education, good governance and women’s rights, will still be there, with an additional emphasis on business.

“Our diplomatic focus will also be on economic development,” said Deborah Lyons, who took over as Canada’s first woman ambassador to Afghanistan six months ago. The approach has the enthusiastic endorsement of Shamial Bantija, Afghanistan’s ambassador-designate to Canada and an economic adviser to President Hamid Karzai.

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Roping in Canada for food security – by A. Didar Singh, (Deccan Herald – March 1, 2014)

http://www.deccanherald.com/ [India]

(The writer is secretary general, FICCI)

Indo-Canadian agriculture and food relationship has to move beyond a mere buyer-seller framework. Recent spurts in food prices suggest that a purely domestic strategy will not suffice for India’s food security, where food security refers to assured supply at stable prices.

There is, thus, clearly a need to find international partners in the agri-food segment, given the sheer volumes required going forward, and the diversity of this sector. Now, while an India-Canada energy relationship seems a natural tie and is much talked about, it is less apparent that the North American country can play an equally significant role in aiding India generate enough food for its populace. In fact, in some ways Canada does already play a real role in helping India increase the availability of food for its population, through its supply of pulses and fertilizer.

Despite Canada being mainly a services economy, the agri-food segment has emerged as a major driver of economic growth in Canada in recent years. Food processing and beverage industries are actually Canada’s largest manufacturing estate and also its greatest industrial employers. Given Canada’s relatively small population compared to the size of its agri-food sector one can imagine that the country has a rather lot of surplus produce that is available for export.

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Secretive Chinese funds: a potent force in copper rout – by Polly Yam, Fayen Wong and Melanie Burton (Reuters India – March 13, 2014)

http://in.reuters.com/

HONG KONG/SHANGHAI/SYDNEY, March 13 (Reuters) – Chinese funds taking massive short positions played a powerful role in copper’s slide to around four-year lows this week, signalling the growing force of the sector in global commodities markets.

The funds had been building up bets against copper since December, according to sources at funds, futures dealers and analysts, in a market already edgy over slowing Chinese demand and fears that credit upheaval in the world’s second-biggest economy could unwind financing deals using the metal as collateral.

On Friday, funds and other speculators pounced and sold London Metal Exchange and Shanghai copper contracts heavily as they took advantage of worries over the Chinese credit market after a bond default by a solar equipment producer.

The scale of the sell off shows that Chinese funds are gaining greater sway over global commodity markets — influence that is likely to grow given China’s intention to liberalise the yuan and pilot projects for free trade zones.

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Indonesia’s next leader unlikely to ease tough mineral export rules – by Rieka Rahadiana and Randy Fabi (Reuters India – March 12, 2014)

http://in.reuters.com/

(Reuters) – Indonesia’s next president is unlikely to make major changes to the country’s controversial mining rules, after major political parties backed an export ban that has led miners to halt $6 billion in annual mineral exports.

The broad political support will disappoint miners, like Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold, Newmont Mining Corp , that may have been hoping the tough new rules were only temporary measures imposed by a lame duck administration.

Political parties representing presidential front runners for the July election told Reuters they support the current government’s moves to ban mineral exports and tax concentrate shipments, aimed at forcing miners to build smelters in Indonesia.

Freeport has cut copper output by 60 percent due to a prolonged dispute over the export tax imposed by President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, who is barred from running for a third term.

Opinion polls show Jakarta Governor Joko Widodo of the Indonesian Democratic Party-Struggle (PDI-P) as the most popular presidential pick.

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COLUMN-Sentiment diverges from fundamentals on China commodity imports – by Clyde Russell (Reuters U.S. – March 11, 2014)

http://www.reuters.com/

LAUNCESTON, Australia, March 11 (Reuters) – The reaction of commodities to the Chinese trade data show that sentiment and fundamentals are diverging, with the fear trade winning so far.

No matter which way you try and slice and dice it, China’s imports of commodities in the first two months of the year have been surprisingly strong.

But the market has chosen rather to focus on the February slide in merchandise exports from the world’s second-biggest economy, concluding that all isn’t well and therefore commodity imports will tumble in the coming months.

Add to this the view that much of the strength in imports of copper and iron ore was related to accessing financing rather than underlying demand, and suddenly you can turn large gains in imports into something negative for future demand.

The issue is whether the market is reading it correctly and the outlook for Chinese commodity demand is weak, or whether a more modest pullback in import growth is likely in the months ahead.

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Marching Into An Active Volcano With The Sulfur Miners Of Ijen, Indonesia – by Mark Johanson (International Business Times – March 11 2014)

http://www.ibtimes.com/

“You lost sir? Follow us.”

Two men emerge from the dark beside me like a mirage, puffing clove cigarettes and twirling large bamboo shoulder baskets over their heads. Their names, they say, are Addis and Sukarno, and they will show me the path into Ijen crater.

It’s a few minutes after 4 a.m., and not five minutes earlier, my “English-speaking guide,” [who didn’t speak a lick of English], had dropped me at a grassy knoll in this remote corner of East Java’s puffing interior with one less-than-illuminating instruction: “walking.” With that, he pointed along a line perpendicular to the road and drove off.

The facts about the path ahead, as I know them, are as follows: The long walk into Ijen crater will include sharp drops, slippery steps and a toxic lake that claimed the life of a French backpacker a few years ago. At 2,600 meters (8,530 feet), Ijen is also a working mine where men carry up to 100 kilos (220 pounds) of sulfur by hand out of the noxious crater and down the volcano’s outer slopes to a weigh station as many as three times a day, six days a week.

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Afghanistan’s Minerals Await Vital Railroads – by Gopal Ratnam (Bloomberg News – March 6, 2014)

http://www.businessweek.com/

At the Naibabad freight terminal near the northern Afghan town of Mazar-e-Sharif, workers rush to unload wheat and construction materials from Uzbekistan that have arrived on Afghanistan’s only railroad. Trucks will have to carry the cargo through the icy Hindu Kush mountains to the rest of the country because Afghanistan, which encompasses almost 252,000 square miles, has only 47 miles of train track.

The government has grand plans to change that by constructing a 2,237-mile national rail line to transport not just food and other goods but something more vital to the struggling nation’s economy: its vast natural resources, including iron, copper, and gold.

In 2010 the Pentagon estimated Afghanistan is sitting on mineral deposits worth about $1 trillion. In 2011 the Afghan government put the value at $3 trillion. This potential wealth has remained largely untapped, because there’s no way to safely and reliably ship the minerals from the country’s mines.

Afghanistan’s 25-year economic plan calls for connecting the country to established rail lines that run through Asia, Europe, and the Middle East.

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COLUMN-Asia utilities in dicey bet on cheap, low-rank Indonesia coal – by Clyde Russell (Reuters India – February 27, 2014)

http://in.reuters.com/

Clyde Russell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.

SINGAPORE, Feb 27 (Reuters) – Many power utilities in Asia appear to be making what seems like an increasingly risky bet: that poorer quality coal from Indonesia will remain cheap and plentiful.

Generators from India to Southeast Asia and China are building or planning new coal-fired units designed to run on low-rank, sub-bituminous coal from Indonesia. Such coal has been growing in supply and currently trades at a discount of 24 percent to higher quality bituminous coal from rival supplier Australia.

But two factors are calling into the question the wisdom of building long-term projects reliant on low-rank Indonesian coal.

The first is that the Indonesian government is planning new rules and taxes designed to increase its revenue from coal mining, and the authorities appear not to mind if the result of these policies is a sharp reduction in exports.

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UPDATE 2-Indonesia to ease export tax, 1st rollback of mining rules – by Wilda Asmarini and Yayat Supriatna (Reuters India – February 24, 2014)

http://in.reuters.com/

JAKARTA, Feb 24 (Reuters) – Indonesia will ease a controversial tax on mineral concentrate exports for firms that build smelters in the country, in the first rollback of new rules that have caused its mining industry to grind to a halt.

The move is a potential victory for U.S. mining giants Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold and Newmont Mining Corp . A senior government official said Freeport would resume exports of copper concentrate in the “near future”.

Around $500 million a month in ore and concentrate exports have stopped since President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono in January imposed mining rules, which included the progressive tax and a mineral ore export ban, to force companies to build smelters and process raw materials in Indonesia.

“The export tax can be changed. For those who have seriously committed to building smelters, we will ease it,” said Sukhyar, director general of coal and minerals for the mines ministry. “The export tax can be lowered or maybe eliminated to zero percent.”

By contrast, Indonesian government officials have said over the last few weeks that Jakarta would not back down from the export tax or any of the mining regulations passed last month.

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Don’t believe the China hype: Time to engage with Beijing – by Konrad Yakabuski (Globe and Mail – February 24, 2014)

The Globe and Mail is Canada’s national newspaper with the second largest broadsheet circulation in the country. It has enormous influence on Canada’s political and business elite.

When Xi Jinping made his first trip abroad as China’s President last year, he chose Africa as his destination. His pledge to aid the continent’s development with “no political strings attached” was seen by many in the West as another sign of China’s willingness to look past corruption, rights abuses and environmental degradation in its quest to secure natural resources.

Others saw not the win-win relationship Mr. Xi described on his trip but a form of neo-colonialism. “China takes from us primary goods and sells us manufactured ones,” Nigerian Central Bank governor Lamido Sanusi wrote in the Financial Times. “China is a major contributor to the deindustrialization of Africa and thus African underdevelopment.”

Last week, Mr. Sanusi was ousted by Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan after alleging that billions of dollars in oil revenue owed to the government were missing. His dismissal fuelled allegations of corruption at the state-run Nigerian National Petroleum Corp.

Mr. Sanusi’s exit has also contributed to unease that China, whose investments in Nigeria are growing, is buying the allegiance of shady regimes by promising unconditional political and financial support in exchange for raw resources.

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UPDATE 2-Eramet delays Indonesia mine, backs ban to help nickel – by Gus Trompiz (Reuters India – February 21, 2014)

http://in.reuters.com/

PARIS, Feb 21 (Reuters) – French mining and metals company Eramet postponed its flagship nickel mine project in Indonesia on Friday citing depressed prices which it said would find support from the country’s ban on unrefined mineral exports.

Benchmark prices of nickel, mainly used in stainless steel, languished at four-year lows for much of 2013 due to global oversupply, leaving many producers operating at a loss.

Indonesia, the world’s largest exporter of nickel ore, last month went ahead with a ban on shipments of unrefined metals, including the ore, boosting international prices on prospects that the global surplus would be curbed.

“We hope that this ban is going to be kept firmly in place,” chairman and chief executive Patrick Buffet said at a presentation of Eramet’s 2013 results.

“This is the factor that could bring a recovery in the nickel market within a reasonable period.” Uncertainty over policy ahead of parliamentary and presidential elections this year had contributed to Eramet’s decision to delay a final investment decision on the Weda Bay mining project, Buffet said.

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COLUMN-Gold bulls hostage to uncertain China, India – by Clyde Russell (Reuters India – February 20, 2014)

http://in.reuters.com/

LAUNCESTON, Australia, Feb 20 (Reuters) – Gold bulls have been tempted out of hiding by bullion’s strong start to the year, but the basis for optimism looks unsteady and largely hostage to what happens in China and India.

Spot gold has gained 8.8 percent so far this year to end Feb. 19 at $1,311.32 an ounce, recovering almost a quarter of its 28-percent loss in 2013.

The World Gold Council (WGC), which represents producers, is unsurprisingly upbeat, with Marcus Grubb, the managing director for investment, saying 2014 is going to be “much better” for gold investment and returns will be positive. Notwithstanding that the council’s job is to portray gold in a positive light, it’s worth looking at why it thinks this is the case.

It basically comes down to three factors, ongoing strong demand from China, a recovery in Indian imports as the government relaxes restrictions and an improvement in investment demand, reversing 2013’s huge outflows from exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

China became the world’s top gold consumer last year, overtaking India, with demand rising 32 percent to 1,065.8 tonnes, according to the council’s Gold Demand Trends report on Feb. 18.

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Emerging markets seen as an opportunity again – by Paul Brent (Globe and Mail – February 20, 2014)

The Globe and Mail is Canada’s national newspaper with the second largest broadsheet circulation in the country. It has enormous influence on Canada’s political and business elite.

After a bleak period, hopeful signs on horizon for some of the world’s budding economies

Emerging markets have been hammered by recent tapering of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing program, which has hit both currencies and equity valuations as investor money has sloshed back into the developed world, specifically the U.S. markets.

Savvy investors need to ask how long this shift will last given some pretty strong fundamentals for select economies in the developing world and some signs that the vaunted U.S. recovery is not as strong as expected.

Emerging markets investment firm Ashmore Investment Management argued last week that the groundwork, in the form of five conditions, has been laid for an emerging markets turnaround.

The so-called hot money of retail investors that poured into those markets in 2012 and much of 2013 has left (at a loss, mostly). The firm also expects emerging markets economies will pick up this year, achieving an average 5-per-cent growth rate.

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China accuses mining tycoon of leading criminal gang – by Gillian Wong (Globe and Mail – February 20, 2014)

The Globe and Mail is Canada’s national newspaper with the second largest broadsheet circulation in the country. It has enormous influence on Canada’s political and business elite.

BEIJING — The Associated Press – Authorities on Thursday accused a Chinese mining tycoon of running a vast mafia that blackmailed, beat and gunned down rivals in daytime attacks, travelled in Rolls Royces and Ferraris and fostered ties to prosecutors and police with drug-fueled parties.

The high-level investigation centring on Liu Han, the former multimillionaire chairman of energy conglomerate Sichuan Hanlong Group with stakes in Australian and U.S. miners, and his brother Liu Wei and 34 associates has exposed ties between organized crime and Chinese officialdom.

The gang bust in southwestern China appears to be part of a sprawling shakeup of Sichuan province that has ensnared senior politicians and influential businessmen in a wide-ranging corruption crackdown launched by President Xi Jinping. Many of the Sichuan cases are believed linked to Zhou Yongkang, a former security czar who until recently was one of the country’s most powerful leaders, and is reportedly himself the subject of a graft investigation.

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No oil, but a phosphate future for Saudi desert outpost – by Angus McDowall (Reuters India – February 13, 2014)

http://in.reuters.com/

TURAIF, Saudi Arabia, Feb 13 (Reuters) – Billboards on the highway outside Turaif, a remote desert town in the far north of Saudi Arabia, foretell a glittering future of glass offices and palm-shaded residential streets. A future that won’t rely on Saudi oil.

Last week an array of government ministers gathered in a tent near this barren outpost, 1,100 kilometres (700 miles) from Riyadh, to sign contracts to develop an industrial complex around a phosphate mine, with a new railway link to a Gulf port and total investments estimated at more than $9 billion.

The Waad al-Shimal project, or “Northern Promise”, is part of a wider strategy in the kingdom, the world’s largest oil exporter, of building downstream industries and boosting the private sector instead of simply exporting raw materials.

It follows in the footsteps of Jubail and Yanbu, massive industrial cities on the Gulf and Red Sea coasts that were built in the 1980s as Saudi petrochemical production grew.

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