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Scotiabank raises nickel price outlook in light of Indonesian export ban – by Craig Wong (Canadian Press/CTV News – April 14, 2014)

http://www.ctvnews.ca/

OTTAWA — Scotiabank is raising its outlook for the price of nickel — a key component in stainless steel — following an Indonesian export ban on unprocessed ore that took effect earlier this year. Nickel prices have been rising following the Indonesian ban that was enacted in an attempt to encourage foreign investment in ore processing in the country.

“While the export ban was announced more than four years ago with an unchanged starting date of January 2014, few market observers, including ourselves, believed that Indonesia would have the resolve to stick with this agenda,” Scotiabank said in a report Monday.

“However, after three months and no signs of the ban being eased or watered down, the nickel market has begun to panic, with prices moving up sharply.”

The bank said it now expects nickel to average US$7.66 per pound this year, up from earlier expectations for US$6.75. Scotiabank also raised its outlook for 2015 to US$9 from US$7 for 2016 to US$10 from US$7.50. The price of nickel was US$6.82 per pound last year.

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Chinese group buys Las Bambas mine for $5.85-billion, giving boost to sector – by Rachelle Younglai (Globe and Mail – April 14, 2014)

The Globe and Mail is Canada’s national newspaper with the second largest broadsheet circulation in the country. It has enormous influence on Canada’s political and business elite.

Glencore Xstrata PLC sold its massive Peruvian copper project to Chinese investors for $5.85-billion (U.S.) in cash, the biggest deal in the mining sector in more than a year and an encouraging sign for an industry that has been hit hard by lower metal prices.

The sale of Las Bambas to a consortium led by state-owned China Minmetals Corp. could inject more life into the mining sector, which has struggled with fears that China’s slowing economy will crimp demand for raw materials.

“This shows you that Chinese companies still really believe in China. Westerners are overreacting to the lower economic growth,” said John Gravelle, mining leader with consultancy firm PricewaterhouseCoopers LLC.

The large Las Bambas copper mine is mostly built and scheduled to start production next year. It is scheduled to produce 400,000 tonnes of copper a year from 2015, equivalent to 12.5 per cent of 2013 imports of copper metal by China. Chinese regulators required the divestiture of the Peruvian asset when Switzerland-based Glencore bought Anglo-Swiss Xstrata.

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China-backed group pays US$6B for Glencore’s Las Bambas copper mine – by Karen Rebelo and Silvia Antonioli (Reuters/National Post – April 14, 2014)

The National Post is Canada’s second largest national paper.

A Chinese consortium bought the Las Bambas copper mine in Peru from Glencore Xstrata for US$6 billion, the high end of analysts’ forecasts in China’s biggest acquisition of a mine, showing the strength of its long-term need for copper.

MMG Ltd, the Hong Kong-listed offshore arm of China’s state-owned Minmetals Corp, led the winning bid in partnership with Hong Kong-registered Guoxin International Investment Corp and state-owned investment giant CITIC Group.

Commodity trader Glencore had agreed to sell Las Bambas to secure approval from China’s competition authorities for its takeover of miner Xstrata. Beijing made this condition to prevent the merged group from having potentially too much power over the global copper market.

A Chinese buyer had been considered a virtual certainty since Las Bambas was put on the block, given the deep pockets of China’s state-owned enterprises and its hunger for copper as the world’s top consumer of the metal.

Glencore will receive about US$5.85 billion in cash upon completion of the deal, which compared with analysts’ forecasts between US$5 billion and US$6 billion.

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South Africa more competitive than China in ferrochrome: IFL – by Emma Farge (Reuters India – April 9, 2014)

http://in.reuters.com/

DAKAR – (Reuters) – South Africa should be able to snatch back the top spot in global ferrochrome production from China within five years thanks to cost-cutting, says one of Africa’s biggest producers, International Ferro Metals.

South Africa’s share of world production of the steel feedstock has slumped since 2012 when it fell by 15 percent to 32 percent of the 4.8 million metric tons (5.2911 million tons) produced globally, relegating it to second place behind China.

“South Africa will regain its leading position as top ferrochrome producer in the world. A number of us have reduced our costs so we can place alloy into China cheaper than the Chinese can produce,” said Chris Jordaan, Chief Executive of South Africa-based International Ferro Metals (IFL) (IFL.L).

That could be possible within five years, he said in a telephone interview during the Reuters Africa Summit. “It suddenly makes it much better to smelt material as close to the ore as you can.” A weak South African rand was also helping the country regain competitiveness, he said.

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PRESS RELEASE: Eramet Group: NEW CALEDONIA: AGREEMENT BETWEEN GROUPS ERAMET AND VALE AND SOUTH PROVINCE FOR THE STUDY OF MINING AND BENEFICIATION OF THE NICKEL DEPOSITS AT PRONY AND PERNOD

 Paris, April 7, 2014

NEW CALEDONIA: AGREEMENT BETWEEN GROUPS ERAMET AND VALE AND SOUTH PROVINCE FOR THE STUDY OF MINING AND BENEFICIATION OF THE NICKEL DEPOSITS AT PRONY AND PERNOD.

ERAMET, Vale Canada and New Caledonia’s South Province signed a framework agreement on April 5, 2014 in Nouméa providing for the exploration, study and beneficiation of the nickel deposits at Prony and Pernod in the south of New Caledonia.

This agreement is governed by the Mining Code, passed by the New Caledonian congress in 2009. Under this code, the deposits were classified as “Provincial Technical Reserves”* by South Province on February 12, 2012.

It follows on from the signature by the three entities of a declaration of intent on November 5, 2012 setting out the guidelines of a partnership for the development in New Caledonia of the mineral deposits at Prony and Pernod.

This agreement provides for the creation of a joint venture for the project, owned 34% by South Province, and 33% each by ERAMET and Vale Canada. The joint venture will first undertake the geological exploration works and technical studies required for improving knowledge on the deposits and the operation of the mine.

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The Most Dangerous Coal Mine In The World: Mongolia’s Illegal Nalaikh Pits – by Jacopo Dettoni (International Business Times – April 01 2014)

http://www.ibtimes.com/

ULAANBATAAR, Mongolia — Deep inside the earth, the eyes of blackened miners shimmer under spotlights as they hammer endlessly upon rock, tapping the vein of Mongolia’s largest illegal coal mine. The Nalaikh mine, 40 kilometers (25 miles) from the capital, Ulaanbaatar, is both a vision from the past and a rogue operation from the present.

Coal dust streaks the miners’ cheeks, their hands, their worn clothes. In many cases, whether they know it or not, their lungs are being ruined by coal and nicotine. They risk their lives every time they go into the pits.

Frequently, theirs is a losing bet. The miners here are part of a booming complex of illegal mining in Mongolia, the seamy underside of an expansion of legal mining in the past several years. Fatal accidents take place at a higher rate here than in the infamously deadly China mines, as private operators seek to maximize profits by skimping on safety gear.

The miners crawl in the darkness for hundreds of meters through narrow, rambling passages before reaching the working face, where the new coal is cut. Dug with shovels and picks, the tunnels have few timber supports — a minimum safety standard in any coal mine, and the walls crumble as carts loaded with coal slide up, pulled from the outside by trucks.

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REVIEW: Bre-X – Dead Man’s Story – by Marilyn Scales (Canadian Mining Journal – April 1, 2014)

Marilyn Scales is a field editor for the Canadian Mining Journal, Canada’s first mining publication. She is one of Canada’s most senior mining commentators.

You don’t have to be an industry insider to remember the story of Bre-X – the 200 million oz of gold in the jungles of Borneo that disappeared overnight. The story of the company’s rollercoaster ride – propelled by enormous greed – made headlines all over the world and severely damaging the reputation of Canada’s stock exchanges and mining community.

The facts should be familiar. A junior explorer sets out in a remote part of Indonesia to make a gold mine. They drilled, and released promising results. Investors invested, driving up the Bre-X stock price, and the company suddenly had no shortage of investors. More drilling was done, and even better results were released. The analysts loved the project. Bre-X management made higher and higher contained gold estimates – 20 million, 30 million, 100 million, and finally 200 million oz of gold just waiting to make everyone rich.

Of course, promises of huge riches attracts huge appetites. Bigger companies considered buying out Bre-X and gaining control of the Busang gold. The head of the Indonesian government, Suharto, wanted the pot of gold enough to usurp Bre-X’s claim to the property and asked an American miner to develop the project.

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COLUMN-China PMI not that strong, but may be good for commodities – by Clyde Russell (Reuters India – April 1, 2014)

http://in.reuters.com/

Clyde Russell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.

LAUNCESTON, Australia, April 1 (Reuters) – China’s official Purchasing Managers’ Index for March probably isn’t as strong as it looks, but that’s likely not a bad thing for commodity demand in the next few months.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) PMI rose to 50.3 in March from 50.2 in February, matching the consensus expectation and indicating that the factory sector expanded slightly in the month.

The official measure, which focuses more on large, state-owned enterprises, is somewhat at odds with the HSBC PMI, which fell to an 8-month low of 48 in March, its third straight month below the 50 level that separates expansion from contraction.

It’s likely that the HSBC survey is painting a more accurate picture of current conditions in China, given the NBS measure tends to be seasonally strong in March, as this is the first month after the Lunar New Year holidays, which this year straddled January and February.

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Why are platinum and palladium not meeting analyst expectations? – by Lawrence Williams (Mineweb.com – April 1, 2014)

http://www.mineweb.com/

The impact of the 10 week old strike which has halted production at a number of South Africa’s platinum mines so far seems to have had little impact on pgm prices. Why?

LONDON (MINEWEB) – While every now and again some analyst or other comments that perhaps palladium is outperforming gold, or platinum is, on the year to date both the pgms have moved up pretty well pari passu with gold overall. All three metals are around 7-8% up since the beginning of the year. Indeed gold moved up substantially further during the height of the Ukraine crisis and while the pgms followed they did not quite do so to the same extent. As gold has fallen back though, the pgms have caught up again.

Many analysts have been preaching the investment merits of the pgms in the light of the long running platinum strike in South Africa which has seen a number of mines effectively shut down so far for some ten weeks – with no end in sight to the strikes yet.

The more aggressive AMCU which has become the dominant player among the platinum mine unions, has been demanding an effective doubling of the workers’ wages which the mining companies have concertedly said they cannot afford – and with many of the deep narrow reef platinum producers finding it tough to make any kind of profit even at current platinum prices they do have a point.

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Nationalism takes centre stage in Indonesia’s election campaign – by Rieka Rahadiana (Reuters Canada – March 30, 2014)

http://ca.reuters.com/

JAKARTA (Reuters) – Dressed in the style of Indonesia’s first leader, even using replica 1950s microphones, presidential hopeful Prabowo Subianto roared to thousands of supporters at a recent rally in the capital: “Indonesia cannot be bought”.

It is a nationalistic tone that has been on the rise in campaigns by the major political parties ahead of elections to choose a parliament on April 9 and a new president on July 9.

The question of whether Indonesia is souring on the foreign money that helped bankroll much of its growth was thrust into the spotlight this year with a new law that aims to boost the country’s profits by banning the export of minerals unless they have been processed first.

That threatens the fortunes of some of Indonesia’s biggest investors, notably two major U.S. mining companies with large operations in the country – Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold and Newmont Mining Corp. To continue exporting, mining firms must now either pay 20-25 percent tax from this year, rising to up to 60 percent by the second half of 2016, or invest hundreds of millions of dollars on new smelters.

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Raoghat mines in Bastar: Iron in their souls – by Paramita Ghosh (Hindustan Times – March 29, 2014)

http://www.hindustantimes.com/

Hills can be unkind, if you are climbing them, or even if you are trying to save them. They have no properly marked-out roads, the clock here is meaningless, but there is shade, and the trees here are everything. The trees point to the sky like compasses; they pelt down flowers, sour-sweet fruits; their leaves are eaten by cows and men; they house the gods, and gods here are like relatives – so why can’t the people keep them?

The nearby Bhilai Steel Plant (BSP) iron-ore mine had led to massive deforestation in Dalli-Rajhara, destroyed fields of grain and corn, led to land seizure, so would its mine at Raoghat be any different? For over 10 years, Badri Gawde, 38, a social worker from Antagarh, a tribal-dominated no-frills town, 20 km from the Raoghat hills and 80 from Kanker city, had been asking himself this question. Lately, he had begun to ask it a little more insistently, holding public meetings, facilitating study trips for academics, tying-up with Chhattisgarh’s unruly bunch, the mine workers, and the state’s two-bit village officials, the sarpanches, and thinking himself up into a leader. Why not say he was a Maoist? And they did.

Gawde’s political pedigree is mixed. Ever since January 24, 2014, when he was picked up at Antagarh, and held in Raipur’s Central Jail under the draconian Public Security Act, he has become, like Lalgarh’s Chhattradhar Mahato, nobody’s man. Naresh Thakur, a Kanker Congress leader, admits Gawde was “with the party”, the state Congress chief, Bhupesh Baghel, said he was a BJP man.

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Coal Mines Face ‘Crunch Time’ as ARMS Mulls Closing Mine – by Jesse Riseborough (Bloomberg News – March 28, 2014)

http://www.businessweek.com/

A slump in coal prices to a four-year low means the biggest producers are facing tough decisions to shutter unprofitable mines, Asia Resource Minerals Plc (ARMS) Chief Executive Officer Nick von Schirnding said.

His company, Indonesia’s fifth-biggest exporter of the power-station fuel, is considering closing its largest pit where almost half its production last year was sourced. The world’s biggest exporters, Glencore Xstrata Plc, Rio Tinto Group and BHP Billiton Ltd., have either halted coal operations or shelved expansion plans amid the price decline.

“This is crunch time for our business and the coal industry,” Von Schirnding said today. “Our most challenged pit is Lati, and that we are looking at very, very carefully. Clearly if thermal-coal prices continue at this level for a significant time, we are, as others are, going to be very challenged.”

Prices last week dropped to about $73 a metric ton, the lowest since November 2009, amid a supply glut that’s projected by UBS AG to be the equivalent of 4 percent of annual seaborne trade this year. Asia Resource Minerals today reported a wider full-year underlying loss of $173 million after selling coal for 16 percent less than in 2012.

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Stars Aligned for Nickel Bull Market – by Tim Maverick (Wall Street Daily – March 27, 2014)

http://www.wallstreetdaily.com/

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s actions have certainly stirred the pot in the energy market, as our Investment Director, Karim Rahemtulla, recently pointed out. And now, the ripples have spread far beyond the energy market to other commodity markets.

You see, the threat of Western sanctions against Russia has put renewed focus on a base metal that’s been in the doldrums for years… nickel.

That’s because the world’s largest producer of the metal, which is used to make stainless steel and nonferrous alloys, happens to be Mother Russia’s Norilsk Nickel (NILSY). NILSY mines a whopping 17% of the world’s nickel each year. Sanctions against such a huge source of nickel would indeed be a big deal, and share prices are reacting accordingly.

Nickel is suddenly in bull market mode, and prices recently hit their highest level since April at $16,230 per metric ton on the London Metals Exchange (LME). That represents a gain of more than 20% since nickel’s low on January 9, at $13,334 per ton, and meets the technical definition of a bull market.

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China’s ‘airpocalypse’ good news for commodities – by Howard Winn (South China Morning Post – March 27, 2014)

http://www.scmp.com/news

The mining industry may be in the doldrums but Robert Friedland, the executive chairman and founder of Ivanhoe Mines, remains undaunted and sees commodity prices bouncing back in two or three years, as he told the Mines & Money conference in Hong Kong earlier this week.

We make no apologies for giving you yet more of him, as he tells the best stories in the sector. Of hard and soft rocks, mineral grades and so on, he gives you all that, but tells you why it is important, and where this stuff is being used.

Naturally he has an interest in telling these stories since Ivanhoe is developing some of the world’s most significant finds in copper, zinc and gold in Africa. His big themes this week include copper. So why zinc? The metal is now recognised, along with potash, as one of the most intense organic fertilisers.

Some 60 per cent of soils in China and India have been depleted of zinc. Agricultural productivity increases significantly when added to the land as fertiliser.

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COLUMN-Indonesia nickel, bauxite ban yet to hit China – by Clyde Russell (Reuters U.S. – March 27, 2014)

 http://www.reuters.com/

(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.)

(Reuters) – Indonesia’s ban on exporting unprocessed nickel and bauxite has been in force for more than two months, but the impact has yet to fully show up in Chinese imports.

China’s trade data for February shows nickel ore imports from Indonesia were about 3.1 million tonnes, down only 2.5 percent from the same month a year earlier.

Indonesia’s ban on exporting unprocessed minerals took effect on Jan. 12, and while there have been some moves to relax restrictions on copper and other ores, the total ban on nickel and bauxite remains.

Nonetheless, Indonesia’s share of China’s total nickel imports in February was 87 percent, showing the world’s biggest buyer of commodities hasn’t made a marked shift as yet to alternative suppliers.

In the first two months of the year China imported 9.2 million tonnes of nickel ore from Indonesia, a 29.1 percent jump over the same period in 2013.

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