The Golden Age Of Coal In China Is Over – by Nick Cunningham (Oil Price.com – December 20, 2015)

http://oilprice.com/

China’s coal consumption may have peaked in 2013, and with it, so have the coal industry’s fortunes.

A new report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) finds that preliminary data suggests that China’s coal consumption in 2015 is lower than 2013 levels. Slower economic growth, lower energy-intensity of growth, and a campaign to reduce air pollution have severely dented the prospects for coal in China, the report finds.

China consumes half of the world’s coal, so what happens in China tends to dictate what happens to coal markets around the world. China tripled its coal consumption since 2000, and it burns about five times as much coal as the United States and India, or about two and a half times as much as those two countries combined.

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COLUMN-China’s steady-as-she-goes economy won’t rock commodity boat -by Clyde Russell (Reuters U.K. – December 17, 2015)

http://uk.reuters.com/

Dec 17 – China is no longer a driver of commodity demand, rather it has become a constant factor that can be relied upon to import relatively steady volumes of major natural resources.

Both China’s central bank and a respected think-tank expect further moderation in the economic growth rate next year, which underscores that the world’s second-largest economy is still undergoing a structural transformation, but is unlikely to fall victim to a hard landing.

The People’s Bank of China said in a paper published on Wednesday that annual growth will slow to 6.8 percent in 2016, from an estimated 6.9 percent this year.

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Nickel Producers Hammered in Indonesia as Metal Price Slumps 40% – by Yoga Rusmana (Bloomberg News – December 17, 2015)

http://www.bloomberg.com/

Almost two years after Indonesia, the largest producer of mined nickel, banned ore exports to nurture its metals industry, fledgling smelters are being pummeled by a plunge of more than 40 percent in prices.

The chief executive officer of one of the biggest producers, a Chinese-Indonesian venture called Tsingshan Bintangdelapan Group, says with output costs at $10,000 to $11,000 a metric ton, he’s making a $2,000 loss on every ton he ships. While CEO Alexander Barus thinks prices will recover, he says plans for new smelters will be put on hold if rates stay where they are now.

The principal cause of the slump is the slowdown in China, which consumes about half of the world’s nickel used mostly for corrosion-resistance in stainless steel.

Asia’s largest economy is facing the weakest growth in a generation as the country shifts to consumer demand and services as the main driver of expansion.

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China economist warns major miners may collapse in 2016 – by Sue Lannin (Australian Broadcasting Corporation – December 17, 2015)

http://www.abc.net.au/news

A prominent China economist has predicted more mining companies could go bankrupt globally in the new year, including major second tier firms, as China’s economy slows down and commodity prices keep falling.

China based economist Andy Xie used to run Morgan Stanley’s economics team in Asia.

He has forecast that iron ore prices will trade between $US30-40 a tonne in 2016, and that means more iron ore miners could go under including in China.

“So what I see is that next year Chinese demand is likely to go down a lot more, like 20 million tonnes,” Mr Xie told the ABC in an interview.

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Mass Layoffs in China’s Coal Country Threaten Unrest – by Jane Perlez and Yufan Huang (New York Times – December 16, 2015)

http://www.nytimes.com/

HEGANG, China — In the dank shower room where the miners soak, the coal dust from their bodies staining the water chocolate, a lone worker sat smoking a cigarette, staring at the floor.

He lingered, he explained, because since his pay had been cut in half, he had been eating dinner at his parents’ apartment, and he dreaded the humiliation of going there again.

“If any of the leaders would do their job properly, the situation would not be like this,” said the worker, Mr. Guo, 39. “If they want to sack me, they should just do it. Can it get any worse?” It probably will.

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The Chinese scramble to mine Africa – by Vladimir Basov (Mining.com – December 15, 2015)

http://www.mining.com/

A more than twenty-five fold jump in investment in fewer than 10 years. That’s how fast China is gaining control over Africa’s mining industry. And Beijing’s push is not ending any time soon.

China’s growing economy is thirsty for sustainable supplies of mineral resources. Despite being the number one mining nation in the world, China is facing a rapid depletion of its local mineral resources.

Reserves-to-production (R/P) ratio that represents the “burn rate” of proven reserves of mineral commodities when applying current levels of domestic mine production shows that China is in the “red zone” for future supplies of nearly all crucial minerals.

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Rio Tinto set to seal $4bn financing deal for Mongolia copper mine – by James Wilson (Financial Times – December 14, 2015)

http://www.ft.com/

Rio Tinto is set to seal a project finance deal of at least $4bn to expand one of the world’s largest copper mines in spite of a commodities downturn that has sent the price of the metal to multiyear lows.

The miner’s agreement with banks to provide funds for the Oyu Tolgoi project in Mongolia is expected to be announced this week in Ulan Bator, the capital.

It follows years of delays amid disputes between Rio and Mongolia’s government over how to share costs and profits from the project.

After Rio and Mongolia resolved their differences this year, the project finance deal with lenders is one of the last steps remaining before Rio’s board is expected to to press ahead with expansion of the mine.

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Ghana, China Address Rampant Illegal Mining – by Masahudu Kunateh (All Africa.com – December 3, 2015)

http://allafrica.com/

Accra — The influx of illegal Chinese miners in Ghana is providing a stern test to the decades-old cordial relations between the two countries.

By law, small scale mining is solely preserved for Ghanaians. However, some Chinese miners have defied legislation by extracting gold in the remote parts of the West African country.

This has continued despite ongoing engagements between the two governments to address the issue.

Most of the Asian nationals, working without permits, have been accused of extending their operations into some restricted areas much to the devastation of land, crops, and farms.

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Idle cranes, untapped mines as Afghans struggle to wean themselves off aid – by Robert Birsel (Reuters U.S. – December 2, 2015)

http://www.reuters.com/

KABUL – The Omid Gardizi construction company on the outskirts of Kabul is at the sharp end of a painful transformation Afghanistan faces, as billions of dollars in foreign spending come to an end and Taliban violence undermines a stuttering economy.

Standing in a yard crammed with 50 pieces of hulking machinery, company owner Sayed Dilagha Mossavi said for years his work depended on NATO-led forces. Now most of them have gone.

“If they’re not here, no one will use this,” he said of his fleet of cranes, diggers, graders and rollers, which he estimated cost $5 million and is now gathering dust.

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The iron ore price is in free-fall – by Frik Els (Mining.com – December 2, 2015)

http://www.mining.com/

Iron ore fell to a record low on a spot price basis on Wednesday with the Northern China 62% Fe import price including freight and insurance (CFR) dropping 2.4% to $40.60 a tonne.

After a strong recovery from its July low, the steelmaking raw material has been on a relentless decline since mid-October. Losses so so far this year come to 43% following. Today’s price compare to $190 a tonne hit February 2011 and an average of $135 a tonne in 2013 and $97 last year.

For an iron ore price below $40 you have to go back to 2007 when annual contract pricing between the Big 3 producers – Vale, Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton – and Chinese and Japanese steelmakers were still the industry norm.

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Miners: More Pain Before Gain – by Anthony Fensom (The Diplomat – December 2, 2015)

http://thediplomat.com/

Asia’s resource sector has felt the pain of falling prices in 2015, forcing job cuts from Indonesia to Australia and destroying billions of dollars of market value. Fortunately for miners, the longer-term outlook appears brighter, although more pain is expected in 2016.

A recent report by BIS Shrapnel predicts Australia’s miners will shed another 20,000 jobs over the next three years, on top of the 40,000 jobs lost since the peak in investment during the mining boom as miners adjust to the post-boom hangover.

Meanwhile in Indonesia, the coal slump has reportedly caused “the majority of coal mining companies in Indonesia to stop operating,” with up to 80 percent estimated to have ceased production as of August 2015.

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Iron ore extends slide, Shanghai rebar hits record low (Australian Financial Review/Bloomberg – December 1, 2015)

http://www.afr.com/

Spot iron ore hit a new decade low as the glut-hit market for the steelmaking ingredient continued to struggle with poor demand from top consumer China, where Shanghai steel rebar prices sank to a record low.

Stocks of iron ore at China’s ports climbed to 87.65 million tonnes on November 27, the highest since May, data from SteelHome showed. The port inventory has risen more than 10 per cent since June, reflecting slow demand from Chinese steel producers, many of whom have curbed production as falling industrial demand widens their losses.

Top global iron ore miner Vale said earlier it expected to produce between 340 million and 350 million tonnes of iron ore in 2016. That compares with guidance of 376 million tons given in December.

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Iran’s Mines Could Bring in Even More Cash Than Crude – by Ladane Nasseri (Bloomberg News – November 29, 2015)

http://www.bloomberg.com/

Iran, OPEC’s fifth-largest crude producer, has potential to generate more revenue from mining than it does from crude if the government puts more focus on developing the metals sector, according to Mojtaba Khosrowtaj, first deputy minister in charge of trade at Iran’s Ministry of Industry, Mine and Trade.

Metals such as copper and lead and higher-priced rare earth elements could be worth “much more” than the nation’s oil industry revenue of about $30 billion, assuming crude at $40 a barrel and exports of 2 million barrels a day, Khosrowtaj said in an interview.

Iran is opening $30 billion of energy projects and $29 billion of mining deals to investors once international sanctions are lifted.

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Can India revive the iron ore market? – by Nyshka Chandran (CNBC.com – November 27, 2015)

http://www.cnbc.com/

As India embarks on an aggressive drive to become a manufacturing powerhouse and revamp its ailing infrastructure, Asia’s third-largest economy may emerge as bright spot for iron ore demand.

“India comes up as an alternative buyer. It is a country growing in terms of steel and iron ore demand so that might be an area to keep an eye on,” Annalisa Jeffries, associate editorial director for Asia metals at Platts, told CNBC on Friday.

The nation’s potential growth could be the long-awaited catalyst to knock beleaguered iron ore prices out of their bear market. Prices of the commodity, a vital ingredient for steelmaking, tumbled to $43.4 a ton this week, according to the Steel Index—the weakest reading on record.

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UPDATE 1-Rio Tinto set to decide on expansion of Mongolia copper mine – by James Regan (Reuters U.S. – November 26, 2015)

http://www.reuters.com/

SYDNEY, Nov 26 Rio Tinto is lining up project financing for a $4 billion expansion of its long-delayed Oyu Tolgoi copper mine in Mongolia and will make a final investment decision early next year, a senior executive said on Thursday.

The mine, which started producing from an open pit over two years ago, is the biggest single foreign investment in Mongolia, and resolution of disputes over its second phase in May revived hopes for a string of other stalled mining projects.

“At the end of the day, what we need is consistency and stability and we believe we have the right environment today,” Rio Tinto copper and coal chief executive Jean-Sebastien Jacques said at a Bloomberg News-sponsored forum.

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