JOHANNESBURG – May 29 (Reuters) – Labour unrest in South Africa’s mines, which threatens to spread to bigger sectors like manufacturing, is plunging the economy into a vicious cycle that may spiral into stagflation, disinvestment and more social upheaval.
South Africa’s rand has lost 16 percent against the dollar so far in 2013 and hit new four-year lows this week, with mining worries triggering the latest sell-off – which picked up pace on Tuesday when data showed growth in Africa’s top economy slowed to a snail’s pace as manufacturing output shrank.
All of this is spooking investors and sowing the seeds of more social discontent, as data shows a strong correlation between the rand’s performance against the dollar and inflation, with a time-lag of nine months.
Inflation is currently just under six percent and will accelerate, with the biggest exchange-rate impact likely on food and fuel prices, which will hit working-class households hard.
But the full impact of the rand’s current weakness will only be fully felt nine months hence, after the next round of wage agreements in mining and other sectors have been hammered out.